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Dec 7 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Huge news out of Peru: Backed against the wall and facing impeachment, Castillo doubles down and tries a Fujimori-style self-coup.
Here's a clip of Castillo's announcement. Note the shaking hand

For more, a good calm rundown from El Pais:

elpais.com/internacional/…
Military apparently won't support Castillo. All his ministers resigning. No backing from his party. You get the feeling this ain't gonna work for him.
Finance Minister, Foreign Minister and Justice Minister Felix Chero presented their resignations.
US State Dept: "We strongly urge President Castillo to reverse his attempt to close Congress and allow Peru’s democratic institutions to function"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Without military backing, Castillo is in trouble: "It looks like Peru will have a different president by the end of today," writes Peruvian analyst @AMoncada_C for AQ.

We'll update this with comments from more analysts shortly

americasquarterly.org/article/reacti…
Peruvian military confirms: We’re not supporting Castillo’s autogolpe

That’s game over for him
Castillo reportedly has fled palace with his family

Pedro Castillo officially no longer Peru's president -- he has been removed by Congress with 101 votes
Castillo arrested

He did not have a good day

All that, in about 90 minutes!!
UPDATED reaction:

"Now the new president, Dina Boluarte has a real challenge ahead of her. She needs to call a cabinet of unity. Boluarte will have Congress’ support initially, but she needs to build a coalition fast or she will be met with instability."
americasquarterly.org/article/reacti…
Castillo casually reading a magazine on a couch after being arrested. Been a long day.

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More from @BrazilBrian

Brian Winter Profile picture
Nov 22
There it is — Bolsonaro endorses his party’s challenge of the October 30 election he lost to Lula. It won’t succeed, but things could still get rocky in coming weeks as pro-Bolsonaro protests continue & some in his party push for radical next steps (more)

reuters.com/world/americas…
In São Paulo this week I stopped by pro-Bolsonaro protests outside military barracks to hear what they were saying. Heard a bunch of fake news & some residual hopes that armed forces would “intervene” to keep Bolsonaro in power (Won’t happen.)
I also spoke to some in Bolsonaro’s party who say if TSE (electoral court) doesn’t agree to overturn election, they will seek to invoke Article 142 of Constitution, which they believe gives military power to jail Supreme Court judges & annul election. (Also won’t happen.)
Read 5 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Nov 10
The Brazilian military’s audit of the Oct 30 election found that — hey wait a minute, why is a military auditing an election again???
Ah yes it’s because Brazil’s electoral court saw it as a possible step to pacify or neutralize Bolsonaro’s constant rhetoric this year about the voting system being open to fraud — and figured they had nothing to hide, so let’s let the soldiers in
Still worth pausing to remember how messed up that is — not what a military is supposed to be doing in a healthy democracy
Read 4 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Nov 1
Bolsonaro finally speaks. He did not explicitly recognize Lula's win, but said he would obey Constitution.

His chief of staff then took podium and said transition to Lula would happen normally.

Overall: About as bland/normal as one could hope from him
The speech was not much longer than my tweet
Bolsonaro in glasses is usually a calmer Bolsonaro Image
Read 6 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Nov 1
I believe Team Biden deserves credit for balanced handling of Brazil over past 2 years. Avoided falling into war of words with Bolsonaro - which he would have loved - kept president at arm’s length but also continued economic & strategic relationship with Brazil (more)
This year, as Bolsonaro attacked voting system in clear echoes of Trump, Biden folks consistently expressed confidence in Brazil’s election — then congratulated Lula right away on election night, which was key. Think history will show US (& others) helped preserve democracy.
PS no, it may not all be “over” quite yet
Read 4 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Nov 1
Bolsonaro supporters were never going to lose quietly, and there were hundreds of these roadblock protests overnight. Many truckers participating which conjures up memories of 2018 crisis (& Canada more recently). Courts ordering roads to be cleared. President still silent.
Highway patrol, which has been militantly pro-Bolsonaro in recent days (and engaged in attempt at voter suppression on Sunday), seems to be grudgingly breaking up some of the roadblocks/protests overnight following court order
For more:
Read 4 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Oct 31
Where is Bolsonaro? I spoke to some good contacts this morning, and while none of them knew for certain, the general view is: Bolsonaro believes there was fraud**, but also understands "the game is over," & may be genuinely unsure what to do next
The Lira statement in particular was devastating to Bolsonaro's chances of contesting result, they said. Timing & content "liquidated him." He also hearing no support from military. Others pleading with him not to endanger broader conservative movement

Remember that Bolsonaro has said he sees only 3 possible outcomes for himself -- "Prison, death or victory." He has always acted as if he really believes that to be true.
Read 8 tweets

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