Walter Derzko Profile picture
Dec 8 14 tweets 4 min read
Russia to the bottom - more 🇷🇺oil & gas woes

Among the news about the sanctions against the Russian Federation & their effect, a very interesting and very rashist in spirit slipped through.
In the West, they could not find $200 billion in reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Less than a third of the $300 billion in Russian weapons, which the G7 countries announced to seize back in the spring, was actually found and blocked.
The estimate of $300 billion of frozen Russian reserves was based on data from the Russian Central Bank itself. In fact, in private discussions with experts & journalists, officials of the relevant Western agencies admit that the term "freezing" is not entirely correct,
because it has not yet been possible to identify assets of this amount. Financial intelligence is actively working to understand where the remaining $200 billion might be and which Russian institution owns it. This case will become another training ground
not just for strengthening, but actually for creating & battle-hardening the system of detection, finding, isolation, arrest & transfer of Russian funds to Ukraine. It is good that this work has been started now because the restoration of Ukraine will require system resources
and there will not be much time to find them.
1. Following Uniper, the German energy company RWE demands that Gazprom compensate for losses due to the lack of gas supply. The company has already initiated proceedings in the arbitration court.
Thus, RWE became the 2nd concern that appealed to Gazprom with a demand to compensate for losses. Because you can't "just take and turn off the gas." And when Russia refuses to pay, it will get rid of numerous properties abroad.
2. Putin approved spending cuts on citizens & redirected money to the army, police and FSB. Dictator Putin signed the law on the federal budget for 2023-2025.
According to the plan, oil and gas revenues will decrease by 24% (although this is an optimistic forecast for them).
This budget includes a sharp reduction in costs to support the economy & a record jump in allocations to internal security structures & special services. Every third ruble will go to the security forces, a quarter of the expenses will be classified.
3. The budget of the RF in Nov did not receive 90.2 billion rubles of oil & gas revenues to the level of expectations, according to the 🇷🇺 Ministry of Finance.
In general, the Russian Federation received 32% less oil and gas revenues last month than in October.
The volume of additional oil and gas revenues in November fell almost 4 times compared to October.
4. The number of notifications by creditors about the intention to bankrupt the debtor rose by 2.4 times in October, and by 42% in November.
Experts associate the increase in the number of notifications with the cancellation of the moratorium on bankruptcy, but in the near future the moratorium will take a second place, & the main reason for the increase will be the deterioration of the economic situation
and the fall in the purchasing power of Russians.

5. The European Commission has prepared the 9th package of 🇷🇺 sanctions, which may be adopted on Dec 12.
About 180 items on the list, targeting banks, media and technology, may be agreed at a meeting of EU foreign ministers on Dec. 12.

And it will continue
#rush #sanctions #hardly #hardly #russiamustdie

Rostyslav Pawlenko, Kyiv

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More from @SmartEconomy

Dec 8
Putin’s plan B

An Escape Plan to Venezuela if Russia Loses War: Former Speechwriter

Russian President Vladimir Putin has an escape plan in place in the event Russia loses the war it started in Ukraine in February,
A former speechwriter for the Kremlin chief said on Wed. Abbas Gallyamov, who is also a political analyst, said a trusted source told him that the Kremlin has, since the ***spring***, been developing a backup plan for a potential defeat in Ukraine, which involves Putin
and his top leadership fleeing to Venezuela.

"I usually don't retell insider stories, but today I will make an exception. Firstly, I trust the source too much, and secondly, the information is very juicy," Gallyamov wrote on his Telegram channel.
Read 12 tweets
Dec 7
Russia heading to collapse
The real price of Russian oil collapsed to $40
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As Kremlin responses to the EU oil embargo & threatens to cut off supplies to countries that have joined the price ceiling, Russian oil companies are getting less for their barrels.
1/ ImageImageImageImage
While the Russian grade Urals is trading at about $60 per barrel - the limit imposed by the G7 countries - in reality, exporters earn no more than $40-45, Reuters reports, citing traders and their own calculations.
This is how much, according to the agency, oilmen receive when exporting raw materials by tankers on FOB terms from the key ports of the Baltic and Black Seas - Ust-Luga, Primorsk and Novorossiysk.
Read 12 tweets
Dec 7
‘A Cold Civil War has Already Begun in Russia,’ Karatsuba Says
Paul Goble

Staunton, Dec. 6 – Many have been surprised that growing popular unhappiness with the war in Ukraine and the situation in Russia itself has not sparked mass protests
and have sought to explain it by pointing to the government’s repression, the absence of a tradition of civic cooperation and of people to lead demonstrations, and the sense most have that protesting is dangerous and won’t change anything.
All those things are true, historian Irina Karatsuba says; but to understand what is going on it is necessary to recognize that there is a distinctly Russian tradition of expressing anger & unhappiness and that it has been very much on display since Putin began his war
Read 17 tweets
Dec 7
Russia expelled from yet another international organization
December 7, 2022

Russia expelled from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation (PABSEC).
The Ukrainian delegation reported that the Russian delegation had stopped its participation in the meetings of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation (PABSEC).
“We, the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, who are now fighting on the most pro-russian international platform - the PABSEC Assembly, have chased the brutes out of this organization.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 7
Who can decide the fate of post-Putin Russia: an expert's forecast Dec. 03, 2022,

The current president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, may be replaced by more gloomy politicians.
Russian opposition journalist Ihor Yakovenko told this on Apostrof TV.
In particular, the interlocutor asked the publicist which candidates he sees replacing Vladimir Putin?

According to Ihor Yakovenko, more gloomy politicians, whose symbol is a sledgehammer and a mop, are being considered as successors.
Read also: The problem is not only in the peoples: what will affect the probable disintegration of Russia, the forecast

The journalist noted that due to the degradation of Russia, which took place during the last decades, there are no positive candidates to replace Putin.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 7
Russia is a prison of nations: the Russian Federation is preparing a "crazy" campaign to discredit national movements
Tuesday, October 25, 2022, 11:59 p.m…
The Russian military-political leadership and special services are afraid that sentiments for independence may grow in some regions of the Russian Federation, and they know that this is possible. Therefore, a serious campaign to discredit the leaders of the national liberation
and simply national movements of the peoples of Russia is expected.
Andriy Yusov, a representative of the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, told Apostrophe TV about this.

Read also: Prigozhin's "Order": what the civil war will be like in post-Putin Russia
Read 14 tweets

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