Walter Derzko Profile picture
retired strategic foresight expert. anti-Putin, anti-trump, pro-free world & democracy❤️🇨🇦🇺🇦
Jul 17, 2023 13 tweets 3 min read
Contradiction:

Putin claims that the Kremlin doesn’t care about lost EU energy revenue.They can easily replace it with sales to China and India to finance the war. Not even close!

As a result, Russian missile supply is dwindling.
1/
Russia used to get ~$1.2Billion / day of revenue from total energy exports from around the world to finance its war in Ukraine.

Now the total energy revenue is down to $442M per day or about 2/3 less, compared to one year ago.
2/
May 21, 2023 7 tweets 1 min read
Remaining 28 F-16s from cancelled Netherlands deal could end up in Ukraine !

The Netherlands has changed its mind about selling 28 fourth-generation F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters to a private US company
By: Maksim Panasovskyi | 20.05.2023, 23:20
1/
The Netherlands has changed its mind about selling 28 fourth-generation F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters to a private US company
Draken International, a private company, will not be able to purchase a batch of F-16s.
2/
May 21, 2023 15 tweets 3 min read
"Rashists to the bottom"

For undermining the Russian military machine, the most crucial aspect has always been sanctions against the oil and gas sector of Russia. Indeed, considering the surge in prices last year (provoked by Russia as part of its support for aggression)
1/
the aggressor was earning up to $1 billion per day from the sale of energy resources on certain days last year.

Now the situation has drastically changed due to several months of deliberate actions by G7 countries and the EU. Oil and gas revenues of Russia have been halved.
2/
May 19, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read
RUSSIA 🇷🇺 IS DYING
Young people see thru Kremlin lies & propaganda

“⚡⚡ Putin was informed that the majority of students want to escape from the country according to a survey commissioned by the 🇷🇺 Presidential Administration.
1/
The most common emotions among students:

-anxiety and fear: 36%
-indignation: 20%
-disappointment: 25%

ONLY 12-14% of respondents feel pride in Russia.
2/
Apr 2, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
Putin’s having another bad day
Sun Apr 2, 2023
April Fools month continues

💥 President of 🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelenskyi imposed sanctions on 225 russian companies & 33 citizens of the russian federation. The relevant decrees are posted on website of the Office of the President.
1/
💥 What ? is this WWI?
The Republic of Tuva will transfer 3,000 horses to the 🇷🇺 troops to establish logistical chains for supplying the front. This was announced by the head of the Republic, Vladislav Khovalyg, -@Nexta_tv (…what’s next ? camels or donkeys? )
2/
Apr 2, 2023 8 tweets 6 min read
Continuing the April Fools joke….Russia 🇷🇺 at UNSC

“Russia has never been admitted as a U.N. member nation, let alone a legitimate member of the U.N. Security Council. No nation, including Russia, has even been grandfathered in a surviving nation of a former fallen empire!
1/
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 thirteen of the fifteen former USSR republics, from Armenia to Azerbaijan to Uzbekistan, were required to apply to membership. Only Ukraine and Belarus had standing, as having been among the original members since 1945.
2/
Apr 1, 2023 13 tweets 9 min read
Putin’s having another bad day!
Sat April 1, 2023
April Fools
1/
💥 UK @defencehq says Russian Army-Gen. Gerasimov's winter offensive to extend control over the Donbas has failed, leading to tens of thousands of casualties and possibly raising Russian leadership's concerns about his future as Chief of the General Staff.
2/
Mar 13, 2023 17 tweets 9 min read
Russia to the bottom
March 12, 2023

From time to time, materials appear in the leading Western media about disagreements between the allies & the Ukrainian authorities, as well as within the allies themselves regarding the definition of Ukrainian victory
1/
and therefore the goals in the war, and accordingly the types, volumes and pace of aid.

However, the observers themselves point out that issues of such complexity as supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia are never without discussion.
2/
Mar 13, 2023 8 tweets 2 min read
We need time before counteroffensive begins, which is not far off – Commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces about Eastern front
Ukrainska Pravda
Sat, March 11, 2023, 9:11 AM EST
1/
Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Commander of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has said that Ukrainian soldiers in the east now need to buy some time to accumulate reserves and start a counteroffensive.
2/
Mar 13, 2023 12 tweets 7 min read
Decolonization Begins with Change in Mindset of Those Living in Regions & Republics that Moscow Controls, Tuvin Activist Says
Paul Goble
Staunton,
Mar. 10 2023
1/
Ever more people in the Russian Federation are talking about decolonization, but it is important to keep in mind that this term & the movement it describes does not necessarily involve a drive for complete political independence, according to Tuvin activist Dankhayaa Khavlyg
2/
Mar 12, 2023 17 tweets 6 min read
Kremlin State TV admitting defeat, doom & gloom in Ukraine says Julia Davis

“There was a time, not very long ago, when Russia’s most prominent TV talk show host, Vladimir Solovyov, delighted in warning of a nuclear apocalypse that would hit the US or Britain (but not Russia.)
1/
So compelling were these arguments, they once attracted the on-air support of his show’s weather forecaster.

How things change. The first anniversary of Russia’s bloody, all-out invasion seemed to blanket Russian TV sets with doom and gloom.
2/
Mar 11, 2023 12 tweets 7 min read
Russia’s Two-Headed Eagle Came Not from Byzantium but from Golden Horde and the Tatars, New Kazan Study of Muscovy Says
Paul Goble
Staunton,
Mar. 8, 2023
1/
Russians have been stealing everything from their neighbours for centuries ! One of the many Russian myths! ImageImage In 1975, the Kazakh writer Olzhas Suleimenov stirred up a firestorm of criticism in Moscow for his book Az i Ya, which discussed the Turkic origins of the Russian chronicle, The Tale of Igor’s Campaign.
2/
Mar 10, 2023 10 tweets 3 min read
The 🇺🇦 War dividend?

One of the very few benefits from the 🇷🇺 war in 🇺🇦, which Ukraine has paid a tremendous price for, is that after 🇺🇦 wins, one of the three post war conditions is that Russia will be forced to pay reparations for lost lives & damaged infrastructure
1/
in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Russian reparations combined with a western Marshal plan 2.0 will allow Ukraine to get brand new infrastructure from scratch!
New roads, hospitals, schools, residential living quarters, industry, etc
2/
Mar 10, 2023 11 tweets 3 min read
Russia to the bottom
Mar 9, 2023

Racist propagandists relish the publication in The Washington Post that, they say, "the USA will need 15 years" to restore its potential - due to the reduction of defense spending and aid to Ukraine, which exceeded $32 billion.
1/
Trying to present this as a problem, the Rashists do not see the unpleasant conclusion: the more the US and its allies help, the more interested they are in the victory of Ukraine.

And the Rashists, on the other hand, are shelling Ukrainian cities,
2/
Mar 9, 2023 10 tweets 2 min read
Russia Now Experiencing Same Deformation of Economy to Support Military that Killed USSR, Grozovsky Says
Paul Goble
Mar. 4, 2023

What happened at the end of Soviet times & ultimately killed off the USSR is happening again in Russia Boris Grozovsky of Important Stories says.
1/
The country is producing rockets & tanks “but people don’t feel” any benefit from this as a result because those increases are being paid for by a decline in the standard of living. That is the summary conclusion the analyst reaches on the basis of a survey
2/
Mar 8, 2023 5 tweets 6 min read
Russian Collapse

Russia is collapsing not just because of sanctions.

If you study the demographics carefully, you will notice, that if Russia didn’t start the war in 2022, soon they would not have enough teens from 18-20 year old cohort to draft into the army
1/
not to mention enough workers for the labour force to replace retiring baby boomers!

3.0- 3.5% of the Russian population is set to retire, yet they only have 2.5% of the population as replacement workers, a figure which will drop due to casualties in the war in Ukraine.
2/ Image
Mar 6, 2023 9 tweets 7 min read
Putin May Trigger a Revolution Because of His Inability to Speak the Truth, Gatov Says
Paul Goble
Feb. 28, 2023
1/
Despite the hopes of some in the emigration, there are many reasons to think that there is no immediate prospect for a revolution in Russia, Vasily Gatov says. The regime not only has enormous coercive resources & propaganda keeps the population in check
2/
Mar 6, 2023 18 tweets 3 min read
According to viable system modelling theory & system dynamics modelling, both the USSR & the Russian Federation are non viable systems (Inst. of Cybernetics, Kyiv & Moscow, early 1970s)

Not Just Propaganda-Putin Really Fears Russia Could Fall Apart,
Paul Goble
Mar 5, 2023
1/
Most commentaries on Vladimir Putin’s recent references to the possibility that Russia & the Russian nation could disintegrate have suggested that the Kremlin leader is using that possibility as a way of mobilizing the population of his country in support of his regime
2/
Mar 6, 2023 10 tweets 5 min read
Far from All Russians are Morally Responsible for the War in Ukraine, Sekatskaya Says
Paul Goble
Staunton, Mar. 2, 2023
1/
In discussions about moral responsibility for the war in Ukraine, 2 extreme positions have become popular. Some place all the blame on Vladimir Putin because he decided to go to war and could at any moment stop it, while others blame all Russians for failing to block him
2/
Feb 28, 2023 10 tweets 2 min read
War in Ukraine Already has 18 Important Lessons for Military and Defense Policies of All Countries, ‘The Insider’ Says
Paul Goble
Staunton, Feb. 25, 2023
1/
Russia’s expanded invasion of Ukraine launched a year ago is already leading experts around the world to call attention to the lessons the conflict has for other governments around the world. Vyacheslav Yepuryanu of The Insider has assembled and discusses 18 of them.
2/
Feb 28, 2023 14 tweets 3 min read
Western Leaders Want Ukraine to Win but Russia Not to Suffer Defeat, Two Desires that Can’t be Squared, Skobov Says
Paul Goble
Staunton, Feb. 26, 2023
1/
Over the last year, Western leaders have had to give up on many of the assumptions that they had about Ukraine & Russia, Aleksandr Skobov says. But they still have yet to recognize that they want 2 things that can’t take place simultaneously:
2/