Pekka Kallioniemi Profile picture
Dec 8, 2022 10 tweets 5 min read Read on X
In today's #vatnik soup, I'll start an introduction about the Russian information operations (an activity that tries to affect the public opinion and behavior of a society), disinformation and propaganda.

This topic is a broad issue and I'll do it over several threads.

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The Russian model of disinformation dates back to KGB days. KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov explained already in 1985 the idea of "ideological subversion" or "active measures" as an overt and open operation of manipulation of public opinion.

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Bezmenov said that Russian "active measures" can be divided into 4 stages: 1) demoralization, 2) destabilization, 3) crisis, and finally 4) normalization.

I can highly recommend watching this interview of Bezmenov as it's still very topical:

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The general model for info ops is as follows: 1) sowing fears, 2) fueling mistrust, and finally 3) offering salvation.

Let's use COVID-19 as an example: at the beginning of the pandemic, Russian disinformation was outlining that COVID is highly lethal ...

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... and that you can't trust the government on anything they say. This same idea was then shifted to vaccinations. This disinfo campaign is still going strong: web.archive.org/web/2022091413…

Finally, Russia offered a "salvation" with their own Sputnik V vaccine.

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In this regard their propaganda was a total failure: it backfired, spread inside Russia and large portion of Russians skipped the vaccines altogether. In Lithuania, most of the COVID deaths were among the Russian speaking population who became victims of Russian disinfo.

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Another example of a successful info op in the West were the 2016 US elections. Russia's "Project Lakhta" interfered with democratic election process with huge amount of disinformation, spreading mistrust and uncertainty in the society: justice.gov/opa/pr/russian…

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Troll farm IRA founder Yevgeny Prigozhin denied their involvement and even sued people who suggested this,but in Nov,'22 he admitted that "We have interfered (in U.S. elections), we are interfering and we will continue to interfere. [..] in our own way, as we know how to do."8/10
Trump was the perfect candidate for Russia: his businesses were in Russia & he was conducting the Russian disinformation model, "firehose of falsehood" perfectly: Based on Washington Post's research, Trump made over 30 000 false or misleading statements during his presidency.9/10 Image
The legacy of his pro-Putin politics can still be seen in the US with politicians like QAnon & Pizzagate advocate Marjorie Taylor Greene (@RepMTG) and agitator and a laughingstock Jackson Hinkle (@jacksonhinklle).

Stay tuned for part two!

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More from @P_Kallioniemi

Feb 14
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce the Russian disinformation network “Doppelgänger”. Doppelgänger is an influence and hybrid operation spreading Kremlin propaganda via AI-generated fake news websites and social media sites, especially X.

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Doppelgänger is a massive influence operation that was initially exposed back in 2022. Their modus operandi is to create near-identical copies of large, legitimate Western news outlets to spread anti-Ukraine, anti-Western and anti-NATO narratives.

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The operation, overseen by Putin’s top aide Sergei Kiriyenko (who’s reportedly communicated with Elon), uses Russian firms like Social Design Agency (SDA) to create fake news sites that mimick legitimate media like The Washington Post, The Guardian, Bild and Fox News.

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Read 21 tweets
Feb 13
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’m going to talk about Europe’s information defense against foreign influence operations & disinformation.

The EU can’t rely anymore on America’s help in geopolitical struggles, and it’s time we created a united front against information threats.

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Recent news coming from the US should be the final wake-up call for European decision-makers. Recently, Trump’s rhetoric has been openly pro-Kremlin and both anti-Ukraine & anti-EU, and at the same time the US is dismantling all institutions fighting against disinformation.

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So far, the Trump administration has put staffers working on disinformation as well as a team of election security advisers at the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) on administrative leave.

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Read 25 tweets
Feb 12
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll discuss how Estonia deals with the Russian threat. Estonia’s Internal Security Service (KAPO) published their 2023-2024 annual review some time ago, and it’s packed with insights on Russian hybrid operations in the region.

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Estonia is at the frontlines against Russia’s hybrid war, and they’ve been targeted by the Kremlin for decades. Russia’s main goal remains the same: undermine Estonia’s constitutional order. To do this, they use intimidation, propaganda & cyber warfare to stir unrest.

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Like in all Baltic countries, one of their major tools is the manipulation of ethnic Russians in Estonia. The Kremlin pushes propaganda to create divisions, but recent surveys show integration is improving. The Kremlin is losing its grip.

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Read 18 tweets
Feb 2
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I talk about populism. Populism includes a range of political stances with the focus on the idea of the “common people” in opposition to the “elites”. In recent decades, populism has been on the rise around the world,and especially in the US & Europe.
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At its core, populism pits “the people” against “the elites.” It’s a political approach that claims to represent the common folk, often oversimplifying complex issues and tapping into frustrations. Populism can be left-wing, right-wing, or somewhere in between.
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In the US and Canada during the 19th and early 20th century, populist sentiments often came from the small independent farmers, “the people”, who were opposing the bankers and politicians, or “the elites”. The People’s Party in the US was considered…

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Read 26 tweets
Jan 24
In today’s vatnik soup, I’ll discuss how Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania cut the cord on Russian energy, further reducing their reliance on the Kremlin.

At the same time, the Baltics set an example for EU countries like Slovakia & Hungary whose leadership still worships Putin.

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Moscow has long used its vast natural gas reserves as a geopolitical weapon, manipulating energy supplies to keep neighbors obedient. They’ve used the “energy weapon” several times, with the most blatant cases of Kremlin blackmail coming of course from Ukraine.

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Let’s rewind back to the 1990s: The USSR dissolved, but Russia inherited the gas reserves, pipelines, and Gazprom — its political weapon. Meanwhile, the Baltic states were politically free but economically tied to Russia, heavily reliant on Russian gas.

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Read 25 tweets
Jan 23
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an Estonian politician, Jana Toom (@JanaToomEE). She’s best-known for promoting pro-Kremlin viewpoints both in domestic Estonian politics and in the European Parliament.

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Toom’s mother, Margarita Chernogorova, studied law in Leningrad & worked for the Communist Party. She was also a confidant to the most notorious leader of the Estonian Soviet Socialist Republic, Karl Vaino. One of Chernogorova’s tasks was to suppress the Singing Revolution.

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During the early 90s Toom lived with her husband in Snezhinsk, Russia and returned to Estonia in 1994. Soon after, she joined the editorial board of Molodyož Estonii, a paper known for being a mouthpiece for the Leninist Communist Youth League during the Soviet era.

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Read 23 tweets

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