Scot126 Profile picture
Dec 8 11 tweets 4 min read
$panr $pthrf #panr
Some direct quotes from Canaccord (C) and WH Ireland (WHI) in response to Pantheon Resources' RNS dated 8/12/22.
- Canaccord (C): "We see these results as validations of both Pantheon's internal assessments of the very large scale of the oil-in-place...1/
...resources and the potential well productivity. The reservoir models will significantly aid development
planning, and they are likely to form key elements of any future farm-out discussions."
- C: "We maintain our Speculative Buy rating and NPV10-risked...2/
$panr $pthrf #panr
...target price of 300p and we see the Schlumberger report as an important step in the derisking process."
- C: "Pantheon's internal estimates - not significantly different Resources: Pantheon had estimated 23 bnbbls oil-in-place across the four reservoirs. 3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Though not exactly the same as Schlumberger's lease-based determination, the comparison is broadly reasonable. The main difference is at Theta West, where Schlumberger is constrained by the 3D seismic data footprint and assume more conservative lease boundaries...4/
$panr #panr
...and reservoir properties."
- C: "In our view, the overall assessment by Schlumberger is more meaningful than the trimming of
oil-in-place estimates."
- C: "The potential for a very large-scale development remains, and the substantial in-place resource now has...5/
$panr #panr
...industry validation. The next important step is the Alkaid #2 well test result."
- WHI: "Pantheon Resources published the results of a static and dynamic reservoir modelling report undertaken by Schlumberger, one of the most rigorous and well known oil services..6/
$panr #panr
...companies globally. The company stated the report represents the first phase of Schlumberger’s analysis and that the report and associated model represent the most comprehensive model completed on evaluating the discovered oil resource and the productive potential...7/
$panr
...of the company's assets."
- WHI: "The company indicated that the Alkaid#2 well is now in the early stages of clean-up production with encouraging initial results."
- WHI: "We believe the report from perhaps the world’s most sophisticated and recognised...8/
$panr #panr $pthrf
...oil service company is an unambiguous validation of the potential of the company’s core assets."
- WHI: "Our first thoughts are that i) the report will favour a farmout and ii) it validates the work of eSeis and Baker Hughes AHS – and of course the work...9/
$panr #panr $pthrf
...undertaken by the team at Pantheon. It effectively corroborates the remarks of Baker Hughes that the company’s resource potential is “world class”."
- WHI: "The report, we anticipate, will be well received by the market. We retain our positive appreciation of...10/
$panr #panr
...the potential of the company’s assets."
Or you could listen to the wise counsel of shorters such as John "There is no oil" Hempton? Or Josh Young whose price paid per acre thesis values Prudhoe Bay at $6.04m?! /end
$panr $pthrf #panr

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More from @Scot126126

Dec 8
#panr $pthrf
I've read a disappointingly large number of dreadfully ill-informed commentary following today's RNS, especially as it pertains to the differential between $panr's OIP figure of >23bbo and Schlumberger's 17.8bbo. 1/
The RNS spells out the primary reason for the differential: "Schlumberger's OIP estimates for Theta West were constrained to the project's 3D footprint with more conservative reservoir parameters than Pantheon's at the lease boundaries. 2/
#panr $panr $pthrf
With additional drilling data points, potential exists for Schlumberger's modelling estimates to increase in the future."

On a higher level, it is uneventfully mundane and utterly bog-standard for external experts in the O&G industry to publish reports which...3/
$panr #panr
Read 6 tweets
Dec 8
$panr $pthrf #panr
Some highlights from today's RNS which are being missed (deliberately or not) by commentators.
- "Schlumberger's report represents the most comprehensive model completed on evaluating the discovered oil resource and the productive potential." 1/
- "The Schlumberger model is extremely detailed, comprising c. 13 million individual three dimensional cells within the c. 153,000 acres of Pantheon's current leasehold."
- "This model is extremely comprehensive, having been developed over the past six months and...2/
$panr #panr
...involved in excess of 1,000 man-hours with a team of reservoir, geological and geophysical specialists at Schlumberger and is an important step toward modelling reservoir development scenarios and attracting future project partners and supporting project..3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 12 tweets
Dec 5
$pthrf
I note the increasingly desperate Josh Young has today published an article on $panr on Seeking Alpha. In it, he attempts to derive a fair valuation for #panr by using the price bid per acre in the recent State of Alaska North Slope lease auction and applying...1/
...that figure to $panr's total acreage. Deary me, this is facile stuff from Josh, genuinely immature if I'm being blunt. Perhaps Josh is getting grief from MW, Mangrove et al for bouncing them into a non-researched short?!
Here's the thing, if we apply Josh's logic to..2/
#panr
...the dollar amounts bid per acre by Hilcorp (the operator of Prudhoe Bay) on blocks directly adjacent to Prudhoe Bay, Josh would have us value PB's 213,543 acres at a massive $6.04m!!! Yes, that's $6.04m for PB using Josh Young's infantile rationale. 3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 9 tweets
Nov 25
$pthrf
Thread on why being short $panr as the company enters an intense period of consequential news is going up against the clear balance of probabilities.
(a) The flow test results from Alkaid-2, #panr's first production well, are imminent. The flow test will not,...1/
...in itself, be a binary event for the $panr investment case (there are four other distinct reservoirs on #panr's acreage) but it is obvious the initial flow results from A2 will be treated in that manner by many in the market.
(b) Guidance from $pthrf management...2/
...states that a flow rate of 150bopd per 1000ft of lateral will support a declaration of commerciality for the Alkaid anomaly. Thus, 150 x 5.3 = 795bopd.
(c) The Alkaid anomaly was flow tested successfully in 2019 at Alkaid-1. A 6ft (yes, only 6ft) interval was...3/
$panr #panr
Read 23 tweets
Nov 15
$panr $pthrf #panr @Josh_Young_
Josh - please treat this email thread with the seriousness it demands. Bison Interests is a regulated entity. You have 12 hours from the time of this tweet to correct the record otherwise I will be filing a formal complaint with the SEC. 1/
This is not a threat. This is a guarantee.
On Sept 20th this year you tweeted the following: "Directors selling millions of shares of Pantheon Resources stock, and then being "awarded" the same amount of shares. Not a good look. Not involved, no recommendation. $panr" 2/
You then attached a document which appears to be an excerpt of the $panr RNS dated 20/9/22.
I replied to your original tweet informing you I had, in the course of my career in UK investment banking, carried out many of these types of transactions on behalf of UK listed..3/
#panr
Read 48 tweets
Nov 14
$panr $pthrf #panr @CG_Driven
Pantheon Resources (PANR LN) – Stock down 16% - Muddy Waters short attack: Weekend press staying that Muddy Waters is in the process of a short attack on Pantheon. They have not published anything (that we can find) for the company to make any...1/
...specific push-backs on, so in the meantime, all we can do is reiterate our thesis.
=> Well-testing remains key: I revert back to our research note from Oct 26th.
=> Alkaid#2 update - encouragement and challenges: No details beyond that the well produced..2/
$panr #panr $pthrf
...at initial fluid rates "in the thousands of barrels per day" with around 10% average oil cut.
=> The operational issue: Frack sand production has been higher than expected with limited handling capacity in the temporary test facilities. More positively,..3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 10 tweets

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