Scot126 Profile picture
Dec 8 12 tweets 5 min read
$panr $pthrf #panr
Some highlights from today's RNS which are being missed (deliberately or not) by commentators.
- "Schlumberger's report represents the most comprehensive model completed on evaluating the discovered oil resource and the productive potential." 1/
- "The Schlumberger model is extremely detailed, comprising c. 13 million individual three dimensional cells within the c. 153,000 acres of Pantheon's current leasehold."
- "This model is extremely comprehensive, having been developed over the past six months and...2/
$panr #panr
...involved in excess of 1,000 man-hours with a team of reservoir, geological and geophysical specialists at Schlumberger and is an important step toward modelling reservoir development scenarios and attracting future project partners and supporting project..3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
...financing, which is part of Pantheon's corporate development strategy."
- " With additional drilling data points, potential exists for Schlumberger's modelling estimates to increase in the future."
- "Pantheon believe that the reservoir improves in quality...4/
$panr #panr
...to the north of Theta West #1 both within and outside our current leasehold, which is the primary reason Pantheon bid on new acreage in that area in the November 2022 Alaska lease sale."
- "The Schlumberger estimate of 775 IP 30 days is broadly in line with...5/
$panr #panr
...Pantheon's predictions of IP of 150 BOPD per 1000 feet of lateral. The Schlumberger estimate is actually a 30-day IP rate versus Pantheon's of an initial IP rate after clean up."
- "The well is still early in the cleanup phase with encouraging initial results." 6/
$panr #panr
- "The Schlumberger report and the derived model is a great result and an important tool that oil companies can use when evaluating our project in our data room."
- "The Schlumberger numbers speak volumes about the overall quality of the resource and provide...7/
$panr #panr
...valuable industry validation."
- "Alkaid #2 is a case of so far, so good."
- ".....it is still all to play for at Alkaid and we remain cautiously optimistic."
- "It will significantly enhance the intended future farmout process as this model provides potential farm-in...8/
...companies industry validation, confidence in the data and the project potential."
- " I believe our current estimate of 10% has the potential to be conservative based on what we are seeing at the moment..." 9/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Long term followers of $panr who have spent hours forensically parsing the content of their RNSs will, I trust, have raised a metaphorical eyebrow when they read "...with encouraging initial results" and "so far, so good" and "we remain cautiously optimistic". 10/
$panr #panr
The NOMAD will have been crawling all over this RNS, especially after yesterday's market response to the photos and videos from Alkaid-2. That Canaccord nodded through that wording was, IMHO, no accident. I contend the company will have provided a clear evidentiary...11/
$panr
...basis to Canaccord in order to justify such language. Think on that. I *strongly* suggest anyone interested in $panr have a read of @EnergyHobbs' timeline and recent posts esp answering questions concerning the fundamentals & implications of the flare. /end
$panr #panr $pthrf

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More from @Scot126126

Dec 8
#panr $pthrf
I've read a disappointingly large number of dreadfully ill-informed commentary following today's RNS, especially as it pertains to the differential between $panr's OIP figure of >23bbo and Schlumberger's 17.8bbo. 1/
The RNS spells out the primary reason for the differential: "Schlumberger's OIP estimates for Theta West were constrained to the project's 3D footprint with more conservative reservoir parameters than Pantheon's at the lease boundaries. 2/
#panr $panr $pthrf
With additional drilling data points, potential exists for Schlumberger's modelling estimates to increase in the future."

On a higher level, it is uneventfully mundane and utterly bog-standard for external experts in the O&G industry to publish reports which...3/
$panr #panr
Read 6 tweets
Dec 8
$panr $pthrf #panr
Some direct quotes from Canaccord (C) and WH Ireland (WHI) in response to Pantheon Resources' RNS dated 8/12/22.
- Canaccord (C): "We see these results as validations of both Pantheon's internal assessments of the very large scale of the oil-in-place...1/
...resources and the potential well productivity. The reservoir models will significantly aid development
planning, and they are likely to form key elements of any future farm-out discussions."
- C: "We maintain our Speculative Buy rating and NPV10-risked...2/
$panr $pthrf #panr
...target price of 300p and we see the Schlumberger report as an important step in the derisking process."
- C: "Pantheon's internal estimates - not significantly different Resources: Pantheon had estimated 23 bnbbls oil-in-place across the four reservoirs. 3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 11 tweets
Dec 5
$pthrf
I note the increasingly desperate Josh Young has today published an article on $panr on Seeking Alpha. In it, he attempts to derive a fair valuation for #panr by using the price bid per acre in the recent State of Alaska North Slope lease auction and applying...1/
...that figure to $panr's total acreage. Deary me, this is facile stuff from Josh, genuinely immature if I'm being blunt. Perhaps Josh is getting grief from MW, Mangrove et al for bouncing them into a non-researched short?!
Here's the thing, if we apply Josh's logic to..2/
#panr
...the dollar amounts bid per acre by Hilcorp (the operator of Prudhoe Bay) on blocks directly adjacent to Prudhoe Bay, Josh would have us value PB's 213,543 acres at a massive $6.04m!!! Yes, that's $6.04m for PB using Josh Young's infantile rationale. 3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 9 tweets
Nov 25
$pthrf
Thread on why being short $panr as the company enters an intense period of consequential news is going up against the clear balance of probabilities.
(a) The flow test results from Alkaid-2, #panr's first production well, are imminent. The flow test will not,...1/
...in itself, be a binary event for the $panr investment case (there are four other distinct reservoirs on #panr's acreage) but it is obvious the initial flow results from A2 will be treated in that manner by many in the market.
(b) Guidance from $pthrf management...2/
...states that a flow rate of 150bopd per 1000ft of lateral will support a declaration of commerciality for the Alkaid anomaly. Thus, 150 x 5.3 = 795bopd.
(c) The Alkaid anomaly was flow tested successfully in 2019 at Alkaid-1. A 6ft (yes, only 6ft) interval was...3/
$panr #panr
Read 23 tweets
Nov 15
$panr $pthrf #panr @Josh_Young_
Josh - please treat this email thread with the seriousness it demands. Bison Interests is a regulated entity. You have 12 hours from the time of this tweet to correct the record otherwise I will be filing a formal complaint with the SEC. 1/
This is not a threat. This is a guarantee.
On Sept 20th this year you tweeted the following: "Directors selling millions of shares of Pantheon Resources stock, and then being "awarded" the same amount of shares. Not a good look. Not involved, no recommendation. $panr" 2/
You then attached a document which appears to be an excerpt of the $panr RNS dated 20/9/22.
I replied to your original tweet informing you I had, in the course of my career in UK investment banking, carried out many of these types of transactions on behalf of UK listed..3/
#panr
Read 48 tweets
Nov 14
$panr $pthrf #panr @CG_Driven
Pantheon Resources (PANR LN) – Stock down 16% - Muddy Waters short attack: Weekend press staying that Muddy Waters is in the process of a short attack on Pantheon. They have not published anything (that we can find) for the company to make any...1/
...specific push-backs on, so in the meantime, all we can do is reiterate our thesis.
=> Well-testing remains key: I revert back to our research note from Oct 26th.
=> Alkaid#2 update - encouragement and challenges: No details beyond that the well produced..2/
$panr #panr $pthrf
...at initial fluid rates "in the thousands of barrels per day" with around 10% average oil cut.
=> The operational issue: Frack sand production has been higher than expected with limited handling capacity in the temporary test facilities. More positively,..3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 10 tweets

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