Thread by @MarkoFerenc

More than ten thousand civilians are in grave danger in Fashoda county in South Sudan in the face of an imminent attack. @unmissmedia can take steps to fulfil their mandate of protecting civilians under threat of physical violence. But action is needed now. 🧵

To save lives, UNMISS should provide protection by deploying more peacekeepers to Kodok and open a humanitarian corridor. Currently the Malakal PoC is the only relatively secure spot for the Shilluk. However, reaching Malakal for civilians is very dangerous at the moment.

More generally, all actors with influence over the commanders on both sides, including elders and community, faith, and political leaders, should use all available channels to broker an end to the cycle of violence. The UN should stand ready to facilitate any such dialogue.

What is happening in Upper Nile?

Kodok, on the West bank of the White Nile is the capital of Fashoda county, Upper Nile. Since fighting reached Fashoda in early October, the town hosts thousands of IDPs internally displaced persons.

reliefweb.int/report/south-s…

Since early October, Nuer militia forces – joined by several SPLA-IO and Kitgwang commanders and their soldiers – attacked dozens of villages, raided cattle and indiscriminately targeted ethnic Shilluk in their homeland. It is impossible to count the casualties, however…

a local official estimated that over 3000 people had been killed. Thousands already fled to Malakal Protection of Civilian (PoC) camp. However, since the cut-off of escape routes, thousands seek refuge in UNMISS’ small base in Kodok town.

https://twitter.com/EyeRadioJuba/status/1599412747980406785

While this estimation of casualties is probably an exaggeration, the gravity of the situation is undeniable. This conflict might be among the deadliest in the long list of local conflicts since the signing of R-ARCSS in 2018.

Salva Kiir's decision to relocate the Shilluk King, Kwongo Dak Padiet I. to Juba on the 2nd of December created panic among the locals, who decided to seek shelter at the UNMISS base.

cityreviewss.com/shilluk-king-e…

The Nuer community militia from Northern Jonglei state, pillaged through Fashoda and encircled Kodok, camping as close as five km to the town. Locals fear that an attack is imminent by the fighters, apparently led by Nuer spiritual leader Tut Makuach.

Jonglei state deputy governor, Akech Dengdit - who tried to calm the situation - estimated that Tut Makuach mobilised 14,000 young fighters in Ayod county. A widely shared video on social media showed thousands of armed men singing war songs before marching on Fashoda.

After the Nuer armed youth crossed the White Nile and Fashoda became under attack, the Shilluk Agwalek militia sent several barges down the river to reinforce Kodok. Government and SSPDF have not tried to stop the Nuer militia or the Agwalek.

While it seems like a brutal ethnic conflict between Nuer and Shilluk, the recent fighting in Upper Nile stems from the political struggle between two factions of the SPLA-IO Kitgwang group. They bear the primary responsibility for the escalation of the situation.

The sanctioned Simon Gatwech Dual (former chief of staff of IO) and Johnson Olonyi (former sector commander for Upper Nile for IO and the leader of the Agwalek) defected together from Riek Machar in August 2021.

crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…

However, by July 2022 they turned on each other.

radiotamazuj.org/en/news/articl…

Fighting is also about political positions for the commanders and over the control of riverine checkpoints along the White Nile, one of the most lucrative assets in the war economy, as @peer_schouten and @KenMatthysen at @IPISResearch showed.

"Take the White Nile. Barges typically shuttle between Bor and Renk carrying humanitarian aid or foodstuff, and for the entire return journey each barge will pay about 211 at each of the 33 checkpoints, totaling a stunning USD 10,000 for a round trip."

ipisresearch.be/publication/ch…

Take for example Tonga checkpoint, previously controlled by Olonyi's Agwalek forces until August, taken over by Gatwech’s Kitgwang: 625 USD. Per barge, per passing.

Back to Fashoda county: the small peacekeeper base in Kodok (COB) is undermanned and needs reinforcement to be able to protect the IDPs and to deter a possible attack.

https://twitter.com/unmissmedia/status/1148881015898824706

Usually, UNMISS waits for the government’s approval before movement of troops. In theory, UNMISS’s mandate from UNSC does not require them to wait.

Yet, this system grants the government de facto approval over where UN peacekeepers deploy. As the GoSS is usually implicated in the country's many subnational conflicts, this practice seriously limits the effectiveness of peacekeeping.

bloomsbury.com/us/peacekeepin…

As one recent report by @SmallArmsSurvey argued, “Kiir’s regime controls Upper Nile by pitting the state’s competing elites against each other”.

Political factions and ethnic groups fighting and mutually weakening each other is not against the interest of the central government.

https://twitter.com/SmallArmsSurvey/status/1593611400718557185

It is dubious if the government has the capacity and willingness to act. With @joshua_craze we explained the structural weaknesses of South Sudan that the peace deal just reinforced:

https://twitter.com/AfricaIai/status/1479130991063334912

Indeed, the government has repeatedly declared that it cannot solve the crisis. Upper Nile state local government - led by Abudhok Ayang Kur, a Shilluk governor from the SPLA-IO - emphasised they lack power over the national army.

https://twitter.com/EyeRadioJuba/status/1600067576591048704

The Relief and Rehabilitation Commission - responsible for the coordination of humanitarian aid in the country - claimed they lack resources to help.

https://twitter.com/EyeRadioJuba/status/1600428686062125056

Finally Salva Kiir, the President of South Sudan declared that he cannot stop fighting in Upper Nile. The office of president later clarified that Salva Kiir is not neglecting the crisis…

https://twitter.com/eyeradiojuba/status/1600449977267806208

and ordered the SSPDF to reinforce Kodok and protect the civilians. On the 7th of December additional troops and helicopter gunships appeared in Kodok military barracks.

However, the presence of the SSPDF in Kodok does not reduce UNMISS's obligations to intervene to protect civilians under their chapter 7 mandate. The lack of intervention by SSPDF in the conflicts previously has led to doubt about their intent and capacity to do so this time.

Last week, UNMISS and other members of the international community issued a joint statement and "underscored that there will be consequences for those who continue to incite and engage in violations". But more action is needed.

https://twitter.com/unmissmedia/status/1598604054984331264

Further, future such statements and reports should consider naming those inciting the violence, given the environment of collective impunity South Sudanese elites operate within.

Further, @CTSAMM_SSudan should open an investigation into the attacks. All actors, including the government, should provide access for CTSAMVM investigators to do so, and the ceasefire monitors should report any obstructions they face.

For the moment, the most important issue is the safety of the tens of thousands of civilians waiting in Fashoda. A lasting solution however must involve a wide range of stakeholders, including not only armed actors, but faith based leaders, chiefs and women representatives.

Mostly, all actors with the ear of Juba should urge #SouthSudan's leaders to use their influence over both sides to halt the fighting. Meanwhile, actors with influence over Olonyi and Gatwech, including Khartoum, should demand the two settle their differences over dialogue.