Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Dec 9 4 tweets 2 min read
Note that:

1. This was (from memory) the first Q in a long list of Qs - it would be interesting to have information on the drop-out rate.

2. Even this Q while far less leading than those later implies an argument against the stadium (cost) and is not balanced.

#politas
This too. By saying "Liberal" you may attract a result contaminated by partisan views. "Tasmanian Government" would be perfectly sufficient if you needed to mention the government at all (I'm not even sure you do). #pollshapedobject

It reminds me of the same polling cycles Tasmania had forever with issues like the pulp mill and old growth logging where there were dozens of polls supposed to show public opposition and almost none of them were soundly designed.
I never understand this behaviour. If you're confident the public agree with you and that dubious wording makes little difference then a neutrally designed question should make your poll far less open to complaints at the cost of only a few percent of support for your side.

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More from @kevinbonham

Dec 11
If the pollster had looked at the preference flow from Ripon 2014 they would not have made that assumption re Bass (if they had the actual Bass primaries in front of them).
Ripon 2014

ALP 35.10
LIB 32.75
NAT 18.33
GRN 7.13
Right micros 6.7

Liberal 2PP was only 50.75%
The 3CP preference flow from NAT to LIB in Ripon 2014 was 69.3%. In Bass 2022 it was 68.8%. In both cases the NAT had the donkey vote which flowed to Labor, and also quite a few of their 3CP votes were not their own. (more so in Bass 2022).

Nothing new in Bass 2022 flow.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 11
In the People's Socialist Republic of Brunswick, of the 55.2% of voters who ranked the Greens ahead of both major parties, 94.6% ranked Labor ahead of the Liberals. (I may have similar figures for other such divisions later.)
Footscray 90.0% 3CP Greens to Labor
Melbourne 89.6.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 10
#VicVotes 2PP pending Narracan

ALP 54.91 - L-NP 45.09

If Labor doesn't contest Narracan that's it, if they do it will almost certainly come down a bit.
The swing on the raw 2PPs is 2.39 to Coalition but that's not comparing like with like as Richmond was not a 2PP seat in 2018 and Narracan may or may not be one in 2022. The swing excluding these two seats is 2.79%.
As noted there appears to be an issue with the 2PP for Pascoe Vale. I think if it is corrected the current 2PP may come down to about 54.85. I'm still working on Lower House writeup but will probably hold off releasing to see if this changes.

Read 6 tweets
Dec 10
W Metro count nearing the end and continuing to trend towards Legalise Cannabis, now 1119 ATLs (0.25%) ahead, and possibly more after BTLs. Hoping we will see advances in the rather slow W Vic count today.
(I was hoping Vic Socialists would get one somewhere just so they could show up in the Parliament and move a motion to proscribe Labour DLP as a terrorist organisation. Looks like it is not to be.)
Finally seeing a bit of movement in W Vic and not that much has been added but Legalise Cannabis have improved their position slightly there as well (they're ahead of the Greens but only about half as much as the calculator says.)
Read 8 tweets
Dec 1
The Greens have conceded in Northcote.
Note: in general I will transfer a seat to assumed win status when it has been conceded, unless the concession looks premature.

I do not transfer seats just because the leader has claimed to have won.
Concession has no impact on counting and it is possible in theory for a candidate to concede and win. But in these kinds of post-counts where scrutineers have been looking at the evidence closely it is generally a reliable signal.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 30
How many times can a Van Badham tweet be wrong? Let me count the ways, I expect it will take me some time ...
1. There is no evidence that whether Hanson would get elected was even a consideration when Senate reform was passed. Why should it have been; the party had polled a risible vote in 2013.
2. There is no evidence that the change made it easier for Hanson to get elected. She was elected by polling a DD quota in her own right. It was once the case that group tickets could be used to screen out ON but that had long since stopped being the case.
Read 8 tweets

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