Thread by @EuroSandor

1/7 Orbán had a bad week with signs of economic meltdown and miscalculations about the fight with the EU. The consequences could be far reaching.
- On Monday, Orbán ally, National Bank boss Matolcsy blamed "mistakes" for the weakness of the "vulnerable" economy.

On Tuesday Tuesday Hungary vetoed the EU's 18bln aid plan for Ukraine. As a direct consequence, Ecofin postponed the approval of Hungary's recovery plan + also no decision on the development funds. The veto was seen in Brussels as a show of force in the budget fight.

Also on Tuesday, at 22,30 Hu gov announced the end of the domestic fuel price cap, that limited fuel prices at around 1,2 euros/litre. Keeping prices low was a cornerstone of the Orbanomics, but resulted in chaos as supplies dried up. The government is blaming EU oil sanctions.

On Thursday, statistical office published a record inflation, 22,5 %, for november. This is currently the highest in the EU. Hu currency started to fall after the news. Inflation might rise further, as fuel prices grow 40 percent in one day.

Meanwhile the EU is working on a new mechanism to help Ukraine and to bypass the Hungarian veto. If they finish this, Orban loses an important card at the talks. Overall the latest veto could have a boomerang effect for Orban and destroy his credibility in Brussels.

On Friday the EU Commission said despite latest anti corruption measures passed in Hungary - their assessment on the conditionality remains unchanged and they want 7,5 bln suspended. A sign that the EU is ready to play hardball.

Next weeks #EUCO will be crucial. And everyone in the EU knows the real very grim picture of the Hungarian economy and their needs for funds. In recent years Orban used Brussels as a box bag that never hits back. But this could change suddenly. Watch out for #EUCO next Thursday!