@noclador Translation: You and many commentators for some reason limit the role of HIMARS-GMRLS to "fighting super-concentrated artillery". But what I have been told by those stationed at Nova Kakhovka takes the role of this system much higher. /1
@noclador HIMARS was not just destroying artillery, but actually the entire military infrastructure in the city, all the depots and warehouses, all the places where military activity was observed. There were hundreds of corpses of Russian soldiers, and the civilians suffered as well. /2
@noclador Warehouses were torn up in such a way that entire blocks were blown away. But it was not only artillery, tanks, APCs, BMPs, personnel and materiel. Everything was blown up. Survivors remember Nova Kakhovka with horror. /3
@noclador All buildings with a minimal presence of Russian Armed Forces were hit. And the crossings too. As far as I understand, it was a similar case in all major cities and places that the RF Armed Forces relied on. /4
@noclador HIMARS not only put an end to the over-concentration of artillery, but over the summer they have worn off the regular army of the Russian Federation. Who sat under shelling. And not only the LDNR People's Militia. /5
@noclador Some elite units tried to crush the GPS [guidance] at the very end of the trajectory, but the missiles travelled on inertial [guidance] and statistically (and practically) there was no meaningful increase [sic, probably means decrease] in circular error probable. /6
@noclador Now the Russian Federation actually does not have a regular army, and every month the position of the RF Armed Forces is weaker. The replacement weapons and reinforcements in the form of the mobilised are not even close to what they lost in the first month of the war,... /7
@noclador in the treacherous original plan of the Special Military Operation, and finished off in late spring - summer.
The Russian Federation will continue to lose territories, including those that it had before February 24. /8
@noclador Until the military-political leadership and the multinational system are changed,the items needed to win will simply not be produced. /9
@noclador On the other hand, there will be wrecking waves of mobilization of 300,000, their grinding down by personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 3-4 months, then a new wave - and so on until complete de-Russification. /end
1/ Many observers have noted the difficulties that the Russians face in coping with winter in Ukraine, including deficiencies in clothing, discipline and leadership. But there's another critical factor worth highlighting: supplies of food and water. ⬇️
2/ I've been following the personal stories of Russia's contract and mobilised soldiers for some months now, and a consistent theme in all theatres of the Ukraine war has been a lack of food supplies. It's been a problem since the start of the invasion in February.
3/ Let's consider what a soldier needs in cold weather. The US Army says: "Depending on your exertion level, Soldiers should consume between 4,500 and 6,000 calories and 3.5 to 5 quarts of water per day. Light infantrymen will require the upper end of that scale."
1/ Russian prisoners who refuse to sign up to fight in Ukraine are being subjected to physical abuse and forced to make self-incriminating 'blackmail videos', according to leaked photos and video. ⬇️
2/ The Russian human rights organisation Gulagu.net has published what it says is evidence of staff in penal colony no. 4 in Kaluga Oblast abusing prisoners who refused to go to war "because of their beliefs and did not approve of other inmates being sent to war."
3/ A brief video shows a man bent over being urged by a prison guard to repeat "louder!" that he rejects the "thieving tradition", in other words the very strict thieves' code that governs the inmates of Russian prisons.
1/ The Russian authorities are recuiting thousands of immigrants to fight in Ukraine through a mixture of deceit, pressure and promises of accelerated Russian citizenship, according to the independent Russian outlets SOTA and Skat. ⬇️
2/ The Russian Army is currently advertising for recruits from Central Asian countries, SOTA reports. City buses in Moscow are carrying adverts in Uzbek promising that those who "enter military service under a contract" can "receive Russian citizenship in a simplified manner".
3/ As SOTA points out, though, many countries ban their citizens from fighting in foreign countries – a legacy of the war on terror. Uzbekistan punishes it with 5 years in jail, its neighbour Tajikistan with 20-year jail terms. Local imams have also preached against joining up.
1/ At least 125 more prisoners have been recruited from Russian penal colonies to fight in Ukraine – but this time it's Russian government officials doing the recruitment, not Wagner mercenaries, according to the independent Russian media outlet Verstka. ⬇️
2/ Verstka reports that a second wave of mobilisation is underway in prisons, following the first wave earlier this year which was led by Wagner representatives (and often Wagner's head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in person). At least four penal colonies are said to have been targeted.
3/ Among the colonies targeted is IK-6 in the Vladimir region, where Alexei Navalny is being held. A representative of the "Russia Behind Bars" group, which campaigns for prisoner rights, says there were no Wagner recruiters and the proceedings were recorded on video.
1/ Did Ukraine somehow turn short-range drones into long-range cruise missiles? A new report by the Russian independent ASTRA media group suggests that the recent attacks on Russian airbases were carried out using repurposed Tu-143 drones, rather than Tu-141s as previously said.
2/ It's previously been reported, including by Russian sources, that the attacks on airbases in Saratov and Ryazan, were carried out using Tu-141 drones – a relatively large unmanned aircraft that is normally used for reconnaissance, with a 1000 km range.
3/ However, ASTRA reports that Russian investigators have discovered that the aircraft used were actually the smaller Tu-143. This raises an immediate question: the range is only up to about 180 km, whereas Engels airbase in Saratov is 700 km inside Russia. How was this done?
1/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel says that the recent news of Edward @Snowden receiving Russian citizenship was prompted by concerns that the US would ask for his extradition from Russia in exchange for Russians being held elsewhere. ⬇️ washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/…
2/ According to VChK-OGPU:
"According to our interlocutor, the 5th Service of the FSB and the SVR [Foreign Intelligence Service] are involved from Russia in the negotiations with the US. Now the countries are in active contact about the [prisoner] exchange.
3/ Various options for exchanges of personalities needed by each country are being discussed. The US from the very beginning named at least Paul Whelan and basketball player Brittney Griner.