#VicVotes 2PP pending Narracan
ALP 54.91 - L-NP 45.09
If Labor doesn't contest Narracan that's it, if they do it will almost certainly come down a bit.
ALP 54.91 - L-NP 45.09
If Labor doesn't contest Narracan that's it, if they do it will almost certainly come down a bit.
The swing on the raw 2PPs is 2.39 to Coalition but that's not comparing like with like as Richmond was not a 2PP seat in 2018 and Narracan may or may not be one in 2022. The swing excluding these two seats is 2.79%.
As noted there appears to be an issue with the 2PP for Pascoe Vale. I think if it is corrected the current 2PP may come down to about 54.85. I'm still working on Lower House writeup but will probably hold off releasing to see if this changes.
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1601766618639478784
This is very rough for a whole host of reasons (Vic data = messy) but I am estimating the 3CP flow from Greens to ALP overall went up from 80% to 81.5% which would be consistent with the flow from IND/Others dropping from est 53% to est 48%. See strong disclaimer in next tweet.
Strong disclaimer: The 3CP flow is not the flow from 1 Greens voters, it is the flow from voters who put the Greens ahead of both major parties. There is no preference breakdown for 1 Greens voters available in Vic elections but it is bound to be higher than the 3CP flow.
The main reason for the drop in flow from IND/Others will be simply that the Others category was more Others and less IND.
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