Kupyansk - Svatove
RU forces holds the line around Vil'shana NE of Kupyansk preventing the AFU from creating a buffer around their bridge head. At this point the AFU bridgehead is in range of RU artillery. This most likely make it hard for the AFU to advance in this area.
Kreminna
RuAF attacks were repulsed in the direction of Nevske, Ploshchanka and Bilohorivka. Shellings reported around Chervonopopivka, Pishchane and Dibrova which most likely indicate continued AFU operations close to the settlements.
Bakhmut north
The AFU repulsed attacks around Yakovlivka, Soledar, Pidhorodne and Bakhmut. I think both the shelling and the report of an attack around Yakovlivka indicate this settlement is still contested, despite RU claims of capturing it.
Bakhmut south
The AFU repulsed attacks around Optyne, Kurdyumivka and Druzhba. I think the shellings and reports of attacks indicates not much has changed in this area despite a lot of dramatizing by German "journalists".
Donetsk
Unsuccessful RU attacks on Nevelske, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka were reported by Ukrainian general staff.
The shelling pattern is deeper than usual along the southern frontline. This could indicate UA troop accumulations. It could also be a coincidence.
There is one more thing. The last few weeks, I believe there has been an increase in UA shellings in the Tokmak area. Which might indicate shaping operations.
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The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992