Kupyansk - Svatove
RU forces holds the line around Vil'shana NE of Kupyansk preventing the AFU from creating a buffer around their bridge head. At this point the AFU bridgehead is in range of RU artillery. This most likely make it hard for the AFU to advance in this area.
Kreminna
RuAF attacks were repulsed in the direction of Nevske, Ploshchanka and Bilohorivka. Shellings reported around Chervonopopivka, Pishchane and Dibrova which most likely indicate continued AFU operations close to the settlements.
Bakhmut north
The AFU repulsed attacks around Yakovlivka, Soledar, Pidhorodne and Bakhmut. I think both the shelling and the report of an attack around Yakovlivka indicate this settlement is still contested, despite RU claims of capturing it.
Bakhmut south
The AFU repulsed attacks around Optyne, Kurdyumivka and Druzhba. I think the shellings and reports of attacks indicates not much has changed in this area despite a lot of dramatizing by German "journalists".
Donetsk
Unsuccessful RU attacks on Nevelske, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka were reported by Ukrainian general staff.
The shelling pattern is deeper than usual along the southern frontline. This could indicate UA troop accumulations. It could also be a coincidence.
There is one more thing. The last few weeks, I believe there has been an increase in UA shellings in the Tokmak area. Which might indicate shaping operations.
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They decided to go and stand on this little piece of road right here.
57.923805, 27.679182
There is some kind of local deal where Estonians are allowed to drive over that little stretch of Russian land if they don't stop. news.err.ee/1609827133/ppa…
Rough infil/exfil path of the UVU shooter, based on photos, videos and eye whitness reports. Green arrows are guestimated paths between sightings.
In the start of this video, the UVU shooter can be seen walking towards the campus, at the end he can be seen running away from it.
40.28187, -111.71443
The next location is the tunnel going under the Campus drive to the parking garage
40.28014, -111.71459
Ukrainian Drone hit the Deng Xiaoping Logistics Complex which is part of the Alabuga Special Economical Zone. The Alabuga SEZ is where they produce the Shahed drone.
The DXLC is a railway logistics center being built in partnership with China to support the fast growing Alabuga SEZ.
At the actual SEZ they are expanding at a rapid pace, they are building on site housing and/or office space for tens of thousands of employees. Their goal is likely to significantly scale up the production of drones.
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?