AllDayFaders Profile picture
Dec 10 6 tweets 2 min read
Lil secret.

🎯The most ACCURATE trade setups (high win rate) must be entered a little "too late" and exited a little "too early".

💵The most PROFITABLE trade setups (high reward to risk ratio) must be entered a little "too early" and exited a little "too late"

#BearTipOfTheDay
Why?

To maximize accuracy (win rate), you must wait for confirmation.

Confirmation means that you're letting the smart money move the trade in your favor (or stop the momentum) BEFORE u commit size.

This automatically means that u'll have to enter a bit "late". cant have both
To maximize profits (high reward) aka capture the majority of the move's range, you have to get in BEFORE the move starts (when no one wants the stock).

This automatically means that u must risk getting stopped out early by MMs or being wrong on ur thesis (since no confirmation)
This also applies to exiting trades (taking profits or stopping out).

If u want a high winrate, u HAVE to exit the trade early.

Waiting too long leads to the stock reversing & turning the unrealized win into a loss.

But that also means that ur profits will be SMALL.
if u want a high reward (big profits), u'll HAVE to exit the trade "late". u'll have to wait until the stock has confirmed that the move is officially done.

But this also means that u'll have a shitty winrate since there will be times where u'll turn a decent winner into a loss.
Traders fail b/c they change their damn thesis midtrade.

They enter high winrate setups too early & try to take profits on them too late,

or they enter high reward setups too late & try to take profits on them too early.

U cant have both. Make up ur mind hoe.

#BearTipOfTheDay

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More from @team3dstocks

Oct 23
High Spatial IQ will help you learn trading faster ONLY because it'll help you recognize patterns faster. But that's about it. Once you learn how to trade, high spatial IQ is useless.

But on the other hand,
High overall IQ can actually buttfuck u in trading b/c:

1) it'll make u overcomplicate trading

2) the ego that comes with high IQ will make it harder for u to manage risk, since smart ppl hate admitting that they're wrong. So they refuse to stop out or they revenge trade a lot
Ive taught many ppl how to trade, and ironically the smartest tended to struggle the most, because they were just too stubborn to keep things simple or stick to the plan. Meanwhile the low IQ motherfuckers tended to perform better b/c they just executed. No overanalyzing BS
Read 4 tweets
Sep 8
There are many ways to know that u're not betting against the house (smart money). The simplest one is to use common sense. Example if a low float trash stock gaps up 100% on BS news, with no pullback, & a ton of buying volume comes in at the very TOP, who do u think is buying?
You think the smartest people in the market see a piece of shit stock literally one foot away from getting delisted gap up 100% on crap news and think "yeah this is a great buy. Dear broker, fill me in at the very top please" ?
Or let's use large caps / options as an example. Do u think the smartest money in the market see a LC stock that's been selling off for multiple days in a row out of pure irrational and think "yeah, that's a great place to start shorting or exit my long position" ?
Read 6 tweets
Aug 11
😂You mischievous little cunts!! A bud sent me this and I damn near spit out my quinoa smoothie. No I didn't blow up, oh ye of little faith. You need an IQ of 13 and fetal exposure to spoiled shrooms to blow up doing credit spreads.
Im in the middle of a 3 month $TWTR break that's supposed to end in september (football season). We were at the half year mark (june) and I already hit 50% completion of 2022 trading goals, but was way, WAY behind on 2022 family (vacations & travels), fitness, and business goals.
And by Sept I need to be at least 75% done with all 2022 goals before 🏈season starts, so that I can relax & turn on cruise control into year end. And each time im behind on goals I just temporarily cut out all low ROI activities, and tweeting to u fuckers is definitely 1 of em
Read 4 tweets
Mar 12
1/2 My hopes for the overall market $SPY going into next wk

I want to short puts again (bullish play), because some reversal factors have lined up, EXCEPT for the most important one.... retail has not aggressively bought puts yet going into next week (they're not scared enough)
2/2 And as a contrarian, I have to be patient and wait for dumb money to position themselves first. So I'm sitting on the sidelines hoping that we get a massive selloff (or gap down) to break retail's confidence, instigate a panic, & force them to buy puts at inflated premiums
when they do, the ADF shop will be there to sell them all the goddamn puts they want lol.

if we bounce instead in the next few days (without a panic selloff 1st), then i'll just miss the bounce play & just wait for the next setup (long or short). Patience grasshopper, patience.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
Also fun fact, world news mean nothing. The market is manipulated by billionaire option sellers. They plan their moves (long or short) weeks in advance, then they just use whatever trending news to justify the move, hide their footprints, or trigger the final selling or squeeze.
why do you think bad news seems to ALWAYS happen when the market is already in a heavy downtrend? or why good news seems to always happen when stocks are already uptrending? when they're short MASSIVE positions, they need u fuckers to panic sell so they can cover.
when they're long MASSIVE positions, they need u fuckers to FOMO buy so they can take profits into ur buy orders (aka "sell the news"). And when u're a multibillionaire, who do u think u play golf with? joe smuck who works at target? or world politicians & owners of news outlets?
Read 6 tweets
Feb 24
I explained how I trade in endless tweets

1) I NEVER go max size (1R risk) on a parabolic move (long or short) unless I get a blowoff or a pullback once Im in the money. In fact my buddy & I were on Voxer yesterday BEGGING for a blowoff so we could add the remaining portions.
That's why a lot of times, when a move goes directly in my favor without a pullback or bounce, you see me tweet/complain "fuck, I was only on starter size" or "fuck, I didn't get to add the rest" etc. I ALWAYS break up my orders & drop Mjolnir only when EVERYTHING lines up
2) I never EVER sell naked. Im always doing spreads (or buying naked), this way my max loss is ALWAYS fixed. And if u know me then u know that the moment I take on a trade I already expect the trade to fail. in short, I mentally take the loss before it even happens
Read 5 tweets

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