From the information I have, the front line in Bakhmut is stabilizing. It is true, Ukraine rotated troops out. The new troops were unable (and likely not expected) to hold the positions held by the departing troops. As a result, the lines shifted, especially east and southeast.
But now, it seems the lines are stabilizing. The garbage dump is a key point of fighting, and I have to be clear about this: the landfill is controlled by Russia and being actively reinforced (2), the facility nearby, or at least the area near there, is contested (3).
The attack down Patrica Lumumby Street has met its resistance (1). I don’t know *exactly* where. Somewhere between the drywall and ceramic factories. I think.
In the south, I’ve heard Ukraine pushed Russia out of parts of Ivanhrad, and Russia is now waging large sustained attacks on Opytne (4). The situation is difficult for Ukraine, the attacks are very intense, but it is holding.
More or less the same thing is happening in Klischiivka (5) as Opytne. Very intense attacks, but the defensive line is holding. Russia is trying to push out from the Andriivka area as well (6).
Russia is trying to punch toward Bila Hora (7) and Dyliivka (8).
In order to do so, they need to cross relatively flat wide open ground. Although there are these lower points cut into the ground.
Finally, there is intense fighting near Druzhba (9) and Pivnichne (10). Russia is trying to push down the road from Horivlivka and their newly captured Mayorsk to attack this more build up area. This should be a slog to attack, the residential/city areas extend almost 10km west.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Dec 12
It is easy to dramatize what will happen to the Russian economy, saying it will collapse. And it will, but not in a spectacular way. It will take many years to fall apart, as it slowly shrinks. It might have some good years mixed in, but it will steadily shrink. The path is set.
It is also somewhat amusing in the short term, because the economy is being held afloat right now by the fact that so many people left the country. Many millions. So even though the economy has shrunk dramatically, unemployment is manageable.
But, the fact that so many people have left has created enormous damage to the economy that will compound annually for many years/decades.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 12
If you talk to Ukrainians or Russians, the ones who actually know what they are talking about, they will tell you about the differences in the battle today in Bakhmut versus the battle in Popasna. The differences are: airpower and artillery. Namely, Russia has *much* less of both
Russia‘s firepower in Bakhmut is probably 10 times more than what Ukraine has. They vastly outgun Ukraine. But they probably have 10 times less now than in Popasna. And the airpower is incomparable.
In Popasna, Russia dropped incredible amounts of ordinance. They destroyed everything. Ukraine took *massive* casualties. Russia is currently incapable of this type of bombardment in Bakhmut. And I doubt they will ever have this capability again.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 9
This video completely blows my mind. This has to be recent, right? Like, it has to be? If this is recent, dear lord have the Russians had their asses kicked. This video is practically in the town of Pisky.
Like, this video basically shows Russia has been pushed back like 3-4km.
Holy shit, it is recent. This fire only appeared on the december 4th satellite image.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 8
The situation for Ukraine in Bakhmut is pretty bad and getting worse. I said a few days ago that some things would change as a result of a change in strategy, and the lost ground to the south east of Bakhmut is an example of this. Ukraine has lost several key defensive positions.
Which is not great, obviously, but at the same time it was expected and more or less planned for and around. I actually expected more areas of the line to collapse, so this current outcome is better than I expected. Which is to say very bad, but not catastrophic.
The main crossroad to the south east of the city is lost, as is the garbage dump. There is heavy fighting near the garbage dump now. Wagner will likely base themselves out of the garbage dump for the foreseeable future. Which is fitting.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 7
An update for December 6th, kinda short. First, I see many sources saying Russia's main line is set up 2km south of Kreminna, and that Ukraine has cleared the forested area north of Kreminna. So I have updated the map thusly.
There was a significant attack by Russia on Bilohorivka today. They made a legitimate attempt to break through the defenses. From what I understand, it failed. I know the first wave failed completely, but I've heard very little about the second wave.
I've updated the Russian area of control around Bakhmut. This doesn't really represent a change in the situation, moreso a clarification. But Russia is advancing slowly.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 6
We’re entering WW2 part 2. This is straight up a p-38. ImageImageImageImage
Image
Actually, its the love child of a p38 and a j21 ImageImage
Read 7 tweets

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