Thread by @Pataramesh

- Why would the sale of Su-35 to Iran be significant?

- What would be its impact on Israels F-35 and co ?

- Would a small number of Su-35 make any difference?

Some answers to these questions in this thread ⏬

First things first:
Iran is a very large country.
Its critical objects for a strike are deep inside the country

Iran created a potent, mobile, integrated air defense system in the last 20 years

Terrain-masking into Iran's vast mountains, means fuel consuming low-altitude flight

Iran has the F-14 Tomcat in a similar size class as the Su-35
But the Su-35 is vastly superior in terms of:

- Range
- Sustained speed
- Altitude
- Radar power
- Payload

This allows to hunt down the almost always kinematically inferior opponents from high altitudes and speeds

But what is it worth, if it cant see the F-35?

Yes Su-35's main sensor works in X-band and F-35 is designed to have the lowest RCS in this band

Here Irans IADS makes the difference:
Its VHF- to S-band sensors have no problems to detect a VLO/LO target like F-35

So detection is not the problem for Iran's IADS, but targeting is

VHF-band radars such as Ghadir can detect F-35 from ~700km stand-off distance
Matla-ol-Fajr-2/3, mobile, low-cost radars still from 200-300km

But Irbis-E radar, as powerful as it is, has much greater problems ⏬

This is primarily due to the shape of the F-35 amounting to -15 dB in front of a higher flying Su-35
AND
the RAS/RAM used, further reducing it by -15 to -20 dB

Irbis-E performance against a -30 dB target goes down to ~50km

The picture looks different if engagement is done by IRST or external data-linked IADS data

Combined with active-radar-homing long-range AAM, stand-off engagement of VLO targets becomes possible

Electronic-sector-scan VHF-radars enable this

F-35 striking Irans nuclear sites would be detected early on if flying high or very short on fuel if flying low, terrain-masking

F-pole (high and fast) attack geometry and large, heavy AAM's would then allow the Su-35 to attack first while staying out of reach

Kinematic superiority also allows chasing scenarios far away from Iran's borders, benefiting from heavy long-range AAM's

It also allows extended use of afterburner to energy-kill medium AAMs launched by escorting fighters
➡️ Minimizing envelopes ➡️ hit-and-run similar to Mig-31

In total:

F-35 surprise deep strikes become more like one-way missions with Su-35, ready to chase down

+ Allowing interceptions at larger distances from Iran's border ➡️ leading to mission-kill

A massive costly air campaign is necessary to penetrate to Iran's critical sites

Of course these are worst case, head-on scenarios for the Su-35, where F-35's X-band stealth excels

In tactical environment its nickname Flanker fulfills its meaning

Kinematic superiority allows to outflank targets and Irbis radar to get favorable side angles with higher RCS