I mean, 🇮🇱 already put it into a graphic how the retaliation against 🇮🇷 could look like & which weapon type to be used, if things go kinetic

➡️ Terrain-masking F-15I flying over Jordan
➡️ Popping up over Iraq
➡️ Dashing to mach ~1,5 at ~14km ALT
➡️ Launching two Rocks ALBM

1/6

➡️ Rocks flying under low drag conditions & mach ~1,5 initial velocity to 600-800km range at mach >6

➡️ DSMAC terminal seeker allowing attacking accurately, targets that are masked by terrain towards west attack vector

➡️ Retaining mach ~5 impact velocity for penetrating effect

🔴 My deep article about Iran weapons of choice during the ongoing retaliation strike
⬇️

(Split into 11 tweets) 2/11

🇮🇱 Ballistic-missile defenses
🆚
🇮🇷 Ballistic-missile

Arrow-3 effective against:

- Shahab-3
- Ghadr *
- Emad *
-Sejil-2 *
- Dezful
- Qiam-2
- Rezvan
- Khorramshahr-2 *

*(if decoys/chaff/ other pen-aids discriminated by AN-TPY-2)

1/8

https://twitter.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/1778710743384281159

Arrow-2 (-1) effective against (1/2):

- Shahab-3
- Ghadr (if non-sub-munition & no "evader MaRV")
- Sejil-2 (if non-sub-munition & no "evader MaRV")
- Emad (if no "evader MaRV")
- Dezful (if no "evader MaRV")
- Qiam-2
- Rezvan (at reduced range/coverage)
⬇️

Low-cost kill-chain necessary against high-end opponent (🇮🇱):

- Stand-off reconnaissance (SAR, 140km)

- Low observable, long-range drone (~1500km strike radius)

- Stand-off PGM (30-40km)

- Airborne relayed communication

➡️ Omni-direction strike
➡️ Never get closer than 30km





The strike component, the Shahed-197 drone is/has:

- Physically small
- Flying wing design with extensive RAS
- Low thermal signature piston engine
- Internal weapon bay
- Low-cost

Hence may could get within 30km or 🇮🇱 radars

The subsonic glide-bomb is:
- Small
- Very low-cost

Beyond MaRV:

Is 🇮🇷Khorramshahr-4 relying on plasma "stealth" to defeat endo-atmospheric ABM system?

Its exo-MaRV or bus, inserts it at steep angle/AoA into the atmosphere
➡️ The resulting dynamic pressure, may heat up air at nosetip stagnation-point to create ionized plasma
1/3

https://twitter.com/Pataramesh/status/1768596702578057626

This effect usually occurs at faster speeds than the mach 12-14 of K-4 missile

➡️ But a at steep angle & high ballistic coefficient, conditions experienced by the unguided re-entry vehicle, become similar to that of ICBM RV

➡️ Plasma made Starship's Ka-/Ku-band radio-link fail

Up until Zolfaghar SRBM; 🇮🇷BM's needed accurate position of the launch point

Like e.g 🇺🇸 Pershing-I & 🇨🇳 DF-15, IMU of earlier Fateh lineage BM needed to be aligned first ➡️⏱️

Not trusting GNSS robustness, mid-course update is done by ground-based positioning-system "GPS"

1/3 Current "tactical series" BM, hence can launch from any point, without any site preparation
➡️ Improving survivability and launch-time

"Strategic series" liquid-propellant BMs however still go for most robust all-inertial guidance

(Khorramshahr-4 potentially stellar-inertial)

🇮🇷 "Mahdavi"-class drone-carrier, a serious/robust power-projection asset for the IRGC?

➡️ Lets take a deeper look of its (future) potential

Q - Can it defended itself in front of western naval-/air superiority?

1/9 ⬇️

A - The rear container area can hold at least 6 containers volume of 6 x 4 = 24 or 6 x 6 = 36 large SAM.
These would be 120km range Sayyad-3 or ABM-capable Sayyad-3F. The longest reach air defense component to attack the carrying aircraft directly

2024 Qaem-100 "SLV" more ICBM than 2023 version?

Missile detail tweet:

What makes an ideal ICBM?
➡️ Being ready-to-launch and long-term storable without maintenance

It seems that the change of prototype and final version is:
➡️ Getting rid of liquid-fuel roll-thrusters

1/3

The hypergolic, liquid-propellant. roll-axis stabilization thrusters on the prototype, meant toxic liquids being present in the SLV/ICBM

A "traditional" design path, used in many modern ICBM, that go for single-nozzle motors with highest efficiency

➡️ How to avoid that?

My take in the 🇮🇷🇵🇰 Iran-Pakistan skirmish:

1: Baluchistan, whether in Iran or Pakistan has always been very underdeveloped, more so on the Pakistani side

2: Such a uncontrolled region was ideal for states like Israel and Saudi Arabia to create proxy anti-Iranian groups

1/7 3: Iran could only counter attacks by such groups inside its own borders, often too late

4: Iran may have supported anti-Pakistani Balouch groups to force Pakistan to take action on its side of Baluchistan

5: Pakistan did not, with its resources bound on the Indian border

The mysterious descendant of the 🇮🇷 Tabas SAM system

Positioned at the edge of the frontline, this system must remain as passive (EM) as possible

➡️ Does it combine Tabar and Raad systems?
What makes it unique?

Lets drive into it ⬇️ Instead of Taer-2, it uses a smaller, yet unknown variant with 50km range
Max. altitude is likely 12-15km, suitable against tactical-airpower

The creation of this SAM hints to:
- Command guidance being used
- Laser-range finder (passive engagement) restricts range to 50km

How 🇮🇷 achieved/is-about-to-achieve hypersonic missiles?

➡️ Via a single elite design-team, working since decades with a incremental step-by-step approach

- Zolfaghar ➡️ MaRV

- Dezful ➡️ "pop-up" MaRV

- Haj Qasem ➡️ depressed-trajectory (DT) "pop-up" MaRV

Part 2 next tweet⬇️ Design-team split into more elite IRGC-ASF-team

- Zoheir/Raad-500 ➡️ (DT?) skip-trajectory MaRV
(instead single pop-up)

- Kheybar-shekan-1 ➡️ DT skip-trajectory MaRV

- Kheybar Shekan-"2" ➡️ DT skip-glide MaRV

- Fattah-1 ➡️ DT upper-atmospheric, powered, glide-trajectory MaRV

With the jet powered "Shahed-136", Iran may soon create a potent "kill-chain" against opposing air-defense

This hypothesized capability has 3 components with all required systems already proven

➡️ A thread on how it could theoretically work
1/6



The main motivation is to have a robust, long-distance video-link, without using satellite communication

1st element:
High-power, long-range ground station with high-datarate directional antenna

➡️ Task: Create a 800km+ data-link with the Shahed-149 MALE drone

Iran's defense ministry's product portfolio enters the next generation

Previous platform are replaced by upgraded or new ones

This is a breakup of the important product changes

Starting with
1: Ghadr/Emad ballistic missile (L) with Khorramshahr (R)
Role: Heavy liquid MRBM

1/n

2: Zolfaghar/Dezful solid propellant SRBMs replaced with Haj-Qasem MRBM

🇮🇷 Some details & statements on Abu-Mahdi LR-AshM are interesting

➡️ The passive seeker function, can be used to discriminate combatants from civilian ships via signal analysis

Important when launched out to 1000km without mid-course update, performing pattern search for target

Signal analysis of air-search radar allows the algorithm to find the true target, going down the chain to Phalanx engagement radar

The avionics compartment is significantly larger than the older 300km Ghadir, with its miniaturized avionic
➡️ Suggesting a signal analysis computer

Many doubts on 🇮🇷 Shahed-136 performance claims in yesterdays tweet

Is it a wunderwaffe-level asset, delivering 50kg out to 2500km?

➡️ In short, YES, according to my maths

A user posted a drag graph, claiming to be calculation for S-136

Lets dig into the calculation ⬇️ 1/3

https://twitter.com/Pataramesh/status/1657349052294483970

1: I don't know yet which tool he used and what mass he assumed:
But at 306km/h initial speed (85m/s) S-136 needs ~380N thrust

2: S-136 prop-propulsion produces about that amount thrust (equilibrium state).
Becoming faster as fuel is consumed, estimated to reach ~360km/h

2/3

What makes Shahed-136 🇮🇷 a weapon, able to strike critical energy infrastructure at the heart of Ukraine?
➡️ Even actively protected objects

Facing S-300P, NSAMS, IRIS-T, Buk-M1, OSA-AKM, Gepard, Stinger, etc.
➡️ A thread to asses & sum up the special capabilities of this weapon

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1604787903640801285

- Intel estimates put price for S-136 at $20k
➡️ This is extraordinary low for such a capability weapon.
Achieved by extensive use of COTS hardware

- Range is estimated at 2500km
➡️ Again an extraordinary number, making it a true long range weapon (or fuel for incendiary effect)

- How powerful is B-21's stealth?

- Will its low-feature, smooth topology and flying wing design, protect it against long-wave (VHF) radars?

Lets take a look at Russian simulation results for B-2 and give answers to these questions in this thread ⏬ It's not a myth that the large flying-wing B-2 is less affected by VHF-band "anti-stealth" radars than "fighter-stealth" (e.g F-22, F-35)

Here is an interesting graph of Russian simulations of F-22 type stealth fighters and B-2 (B-21) type flying wings

The tweet below ⏬ was somewhat controversial

Many comments like:

"Yeah but once Israeli electronic warfare is switched on its game over"

Lets talk about it ⏬

https://twitter.com/Pataramesh/status/1601869890041921536

First this Su-35 vs. F-35 tweet is within the context of an IADS supporting the Flanker

So lets take a look at one of Iran's most potent ground based radar system here
(not yet in widespread use):

➡️ L-ASR4 or "Iran-Nebo"

- Why would the sale of Su-35 to Iran be significant?

- What would be its impact on Israels F-35 and co ?

- Would a small number of Su-35 make any difference?

Some answers to these questions in this thread ⏬ First things first:
Iran is a very large country.
Its critical objects for a strike are deep inside the country

Iran created a potent, mobile, integrated air defense system in the last 20 years

Terrain-masking into Iran's vast mountains, means fuel consuming low-altitude flight

Definition of a next generation short range air defense system fitting 🇮🇷 Zoobin

- AESA radar for long-time (24/7) operation

- Rotating parts, only the radar, not the SAMs

- Vertical launch SAM

How to achieve it at low cost? Tweets below ⏬ - Command-guided SAM with 2 sets of control surfaces

➡️ Allowing directional alignment after vertical launch without using more expensive 360° capable thruster or jet vanes

The yet unknown missile below could fit the bill, but appears too slim for a single, big Zoobin container

🇺🇸 B-21 was unveiled
What does it mean in the Iranian context?

The bomber fleets long-range compensates to some degree the vulnerability of U.S airbases near Iran, to mass ballistic missile attacks

A thread with some myth-busting and hard data The U.S bomber fleet of today is limited by its weapons and radar visibility

- B-52 is a bomb truck that can't come close to Iran's IADS and its subsonic cruise missiles can be intercepted.
But still useful against lower priority objects without SHORAD protection and saturation