People want 🇮🇷🇮🇱 insights
Let me give them some:

➡️ In the first week of OTP-III Iran's primary goal was to degrade Israel's air- and missile defenses

- By forcing ripple launches against single high-speed 🇮🇷 missiles
( I observed up to 14 against a single missile)
1/5

https://twitter.com/Pataramesh/status/1935262208092725652

- by hitting high-end sensor elements like the X-band AN/TPY-2 radars

➡️ Which in turn disables 🇮🇱 capability to identify and discriminate between real targets and decoys, but most importantly; avoid wasting interceptors on empty spent 1st stage boosters which come behind them

Time to explain some realities:

- Israeli missile interceptors stocks & sensor performance will degrade over time

- Iranian missile bases & launchers safety protocols will get more loose once the in-situ sabotage assets like OWA- & FPV-drones/ATGMs are found or depleted

1/4 Since Israel hit civilian targets at the start of the attack, Iran will use heavy missiles like Emad to hit targets, even in urban regions.

Once Arrow-3 and THAAD are exhausted by trying to catch hypersonics like Kheybar-Shekan-2/Fattah-1 via multiple launches against single missiles

➡️ The gates are open for heavy Emad hits

🟡 As Operation True Promise III is about to unfold:

➡️ A thread on which weapons 🇮🇷 will likely use for what targets:

1: Fattah-2
Maybe the best tool to take out 🇮🇱's U.S. AN/TPY-2 radar, a key asset for missile defense

But not known to be operational
2: Khorramshahr-4

Unlikely to be used but among the best systems to directly strike the THAAD AN/TPY-2 radar and battery components.

It would also be a suited tool against the Arrow missile defense layers.

Use unlikely as Fattah-1 is available.

🔴 🇨🇳 6th Gen. fighter

- 20km+ altitude operation regime
- Long-range super-cruise
with a high-lift ↔️ low-drag low-observable airframe...

A new era of beyond visual range warfare
➡️ And it was not started by the usual suspects 🇺🇸🇷🇺

➡️ First 🇨🇳 thrust-vector-control fighter
There is a non-zero chance that it has a hybrid propulsion of two jet engines and a RAM-jet with a top intake

But for now it seems its size and the resulting thrust requirements could not be meet with just two engines

Weapon systems not unveiled yet:

Next generation 🇮🇷 "Guerrilla" air-defense

➡️ Combining Tabas and Raad ambush SAM systems in the yet unknown SAM system (left photo)

Lets take a look at the features of Raad-3/Tabas-2 (whatever its called), some of which are unique
1/2

Main feature is passive engagement capability of the Raad system, which combines infrared volume search with a long-range laser-range-finder

➡️ It allows passive engagement up until the last seconds before SAM impact, when it switches to terminal SARH mode and radar is turned on

I mean, 🇮🇱 already put it into a graphic how the retaliation against 🇮🇷 could look like & which weapon type to be used, if things go kinetic

➡️ Terrain-masking F-15I flying over Jordan
➡️ Popping up over Iraq
➡️ Dashing to mach ~1,5 at ~14km ALT
➡️ Launching two Rocks ALBM

1/6

➡️ Rocks flying under low drag conditions & mach ~1,5 initial velocity to 600-800km range at mach >6

➡️ DSMAC terminal seeker allowing attacking accurately, targets that are masked by terrain towards west attack vector

➡️ Retaining mach ~5 impact velocity for penetrating effect

🔴 My deep article about Iran weapons of choice during the ongoing retaliation strike
⬇️

(Split into 11 tweets) 2/11

🇮🇱 Ballistic-missile defenses
🆚
🇮🇷 Ballistic-missile

Arrow-3 effective against:

- Shahab-3
- Ghadr *
- Emad *
-Sejil-2 *
- Dezful
- Qiam-2
- Rezvan
- Khorramshahr-2 *

*(if decoys/chaff/ other pen-aids discriminated by AN-TPY-2)

1/8

https://twitter.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/1778710743384281159

Arrow-2 (-1) effective against (1/2):

- Shahab-3
- Ghadr (if non-sub-munition & no "evader MaRV")
- Sejil-2 (if non-sub-munition & no "evader MaRV")
- Emad (if no "evader MaRV")
- Dezful (if no "evader MaRV")
- Qiam-2
- Rezvan (at reduced range/coverage)
⬇️

Low-cost kill-chain necessary against high-end opponent (🇮🇱):

- Stand-off reconnaissance (SAR, 140km)

- Low observable, long-range drone (~1500km strike radius)

- Stand-off PGM (30-40km)

- Airborne relayed communication

➡️ Omni-direction strike
➡️ Never get closer than 30km





The strike component, the Shahed-197 drone is/has:

- Physically small
- Flying wing design with extensive RAS
- Low thermal signature piston engine
- Internal weapon bay
- Low-cost

Hence may could get within 30km or 🇮🇱 radars

The subsonic glide-bomb is:
- Small
- Very low-cost

Beyond MaRV:

Is 🇮🇷Khorramshahr-4 relying on plasma "stealth" to defeat endo-atmospheric ABM system?

Its exo-MaRV or bus, inserts it at steep angle/AoA into the atmosphere
➡️ The resulting dynamic pressure, may heat up air at nosetip stagnation-point to create ionized plasma
1/3

https://twitter.com/Pataramesh/status/1768596702578057626

This effect usually occurs at faster speeds than the mach 12-14 of K-4 missile

➡️ But a at steep angle & high ballistic coefficient, conditions experienced by the unguided re-entry vehicle, become similar to that of ICBM RV

➡️ Plasma made Starship's Ka-/Ku-band radio-link fail

Up until Zolfaghar SRBM; 🇮🇷BM's needed accurate position of the launch point

Like e.g 🇺🇸 Pershing-I & 🇨🇳 DF-15, IMU of earlier Fateh lineage BM needed to be aligned first ➡️⏱️

Not trusting GNSS robustness, mid-course update is done by ground-based positioning-system "GPS"

1/3 Current "tactical series" BM, hence can launch from any point, without any site preparation
➡️ Improving survivability and launch-time

"Strategic series" liquid-propellant BMs however still go for most robust all-inertial guidance

(Khorramshahr-4 potentially stellar-inertial)

🇮🇷 "Mahdavi"-class drone-carrier, a serious/robust power-projection asset for the IRGC?

➡️ Lets take a deeper look of its (future) potential

Q - Can it defended itself in front of western naval-/air superiority?

1/9 ⬇️

A - The rear container area can hold at least 6 containers volume of 6 x 4 = 24 or 6 x 6 = 36 large SAM.
These would be 120km range Sayyad-3 or ABM-capable Sayyad-3F. The longest reach air defense component to attack the carrying aircraft directly

2024 Qaem-100 "SLV" more ICBM than 2023 version?

Missile detail tweet:

What makes an ideal ICBM?
➡️ Being ready-to-launch and long-term storable without maintenance

It seems that the change of prototype and final version is:
➡️ Getting rid of liquid-fuel roll-thrusters

1/3

The hypergolic, liquid-propellant. roll-axis stabilization thrusters on the prototype, meant toxic liquids being present in the SLV/ICBM

A "traditional" design path, used in many modern ICBM, that go for single-nozzle motors with highest efficiency

➡️ How to avoid that?

My take in the 🇮🇷🇵🇰 Iran-Pakistan skirmish:

1: Baluchistan, whether in Iran or Pakistan has always been very underdeveloped, more so on the Pakistani side

2: Such a uncontrolled region was ideal for states like Israel and Saudi Arabia to create proxy anti-Iranian groups

1/7 3: Iran could only counter attacks by such groups inside its own borders, often too late

4: Iran may have supported anti-Pakistani Balouch groups to force Pakistan to take action on its side of Baluchistan

5: Pakistan did not, with its resources bound on the Indian border

The mysterious descendant of the 🇮🇷 Tabas SAM system

Positioned at the edge of the frontline, this system must remain as passive (EM) as possible

➡️ Does it combine Tabar and Raad systems?
What makes it unique?

Lets drive into it ⬇️ Instead of Taer-2, it uses a smaller, yet unknown variant with 50km range
Max. altitude is likely 12-15km, suitable against tactical-airpower

The creation of this SAM hints to:
- Command guidance being used
- Laser-range finder (passive engagement) restricts range to 50km

How 🇮🇷 achieved/is-about-to-achieve hypersonic missiles?

➡️ Via a single elite design-team, working since decades with a incremental step-by-step approach

- Zolfaghar ➡️ MaRV

- Dezful ➡️ "pop-up" MaRV

- Haj Qasem ➡️ depressed-trajectory (DT) "pop-up" MaRV

Part 2 next tweet⬇️ Design-team split into more elite IRGC-ASF-team

- Zoheir/Raad-500 ➡️ (DT?) skip-trajectory MaRV
(instead single pop-up)

- Kheybar-shekan-1 ➡️ DT skip-trajectory MaRV

- Kheybar Shekan-"2" ➡️ DT skip-glide MaRV

- Fattah-1 ➡️ DT upper-atmospheric, powered, glide-trajectory MaRV

With the jet powered "Shahed-136", Iran may soon create a potent "kill-chain" against opposing air-defense

This hypothesized capability has 3 components with all required systems already proven

➡️ A thread on how it could theoretically work
1/6



The main motivation is to have a robust, long-distance video-link, without using satellite communication

1st element:
High-power, long-range ground station with high-datarate directional antenna

➡️ Task: Create a 800km+ data-link with the Shahed-149 MALE drone

Iran's defense ministry's product portfolio enters the next generation

Previous platform are replaced by upgraded or new ones

This is a breakup of the important product changes

Starting with
1: Ghadr/Emad ballistic missile (L) with Khorramshahr (R)
Role: Heavy liquid MRBM

1/n

2: Zolfaghar/Dezful solid propellant SRBMs replaced with Haj-Qasem MRBM

🇮🇷 Some details & statements on Abu-Mahdi LR-AshM are interesting

➡️ The passive seeker function, can be used to discriminate combatants from civilian ships via signal analysis

Important when launched out to 1000km without mid-course update, performing pattern search for target

Signal analysis of air-search radar allows the algorithm to find the true target, going down the chain to Phalanx engagement radar

The avionics compartment is significantly larger than the older 300km Ghadir, with its miniaturized avionic
➡️ Suggesting a signal analysis computer

Many doubts on 🇮🇷 Shahed-136 performance claims in yesterdays tweet

Is it a wunderwaffe-level asset, delivering 50kg out to 2500km?

➡️ In short, YES, according to my maths

A user posted a drag graph, claiming to be calculation for S-136

Lets dig into the calculation ⬇️ 1/3

https://twitter.com/Pataramesh/status/1657349052294483970

1: I don't know yet which tool he used and what mass he assumed:
But at 306km/h initial speed (85m/s) S-136 needs ~380N thrust

2: S-136 prop-propulsion produces about that amount thrust (equilibrium state).
Becoming faster as fuel is consumed, estimated to reach ~360km/h

2/3

What makes Shahed-136 🇮🇷 a weapon, able to strike critical energy infrastructure at the heart of Ukraine?
➡️ Even actively protected objects

Facing S-300P, NSAMS, IRIS-T, Buk-M1, OSA-AKM, Gepard, Stinger, etc.
➡️ A thread to asses & sum up the special capabilities of this weapon

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1604787903640801285

- Intel estimates put price for S-136 at $20k
➡️ This is extraordinary low for such a capability weapon.
Achieved by extensive use of COTS hardware

- Range is estimated at 2500km
➡️ Again an extraordinary number, making it a true long range weapon (or fuel for incendiary effect)