1/ Looks like Europe is going to lose 20-30% of its oil supply. If that happens, expect a shortage economy like we saw in the late Soviet Union as supply chains completely collapse due to lack of diesel fuel. At that point I’m guessing people with the option to leave Europe will. 
2/ Beyond that, it looks like an interesting experiment is coming. The production cut is to firm up prices in the expectation of a recession. In normal times, these cuts rarely offset the fall in demand from the recession. But the energy markets have changed a lot this year.
3/ Europe simply won’t have nearly enough oil. Oil will become scarce, so prices could go up quite a lot even with a recession/depression. Sort of a Mad Max dynamic.
4/ Then there’s the growth divergence. The West likely faces a recession/depression (including the U.S.). But the new BRICS+ may not. Chinese growth may maintain, propping up Southeast Asia, Russia and others. Oil price has never been tested for a ‘divergent recession’.
5/ Finally there is OPEC+. The cartel is far more unified than it has been in the past. They may be far more able to coordinate production cuts than they have been historically. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
6/ If the shortage economy emerges there may be mass migration from Europe to the United States. Seems unlikely the US could sustain that plus current migration levels via the Mexican border. That could create a very unusual situation.
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