Thread by @DefMon3

🇺🇦 Update🧵December 11th

This thread is brought to you by the typical Russian soldiers.

Visit interactive map for more details and explanations:
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper…

Starting early today. Shellings will come later, and possibly more updates as the day progresses.

Yesterdays thread

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1601637217448779776

Weather
Warmish and very wet in the north.

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1601930146856026114

Kupyansk
The front line remains mainly unchanged. AFU are struggling to expand their bridgeheads in the area. I believe AFU are trying to advance in the direction of Nyzhnia Duvanka from Kyslivka to try and cut of the RU northern supply route to Svatove.

Svatove
RuAF are doing everything they can to keep the AFU away from Svatove and the P-66. The AFU repulsed attacks around Andriivka and Novoselivs'ke. Attacks on Andriivka is a slight change in direction from Stel'makhivka.

I have earlier stated Novoselivs'ke is in very bad shape and provides very little cover. I consider the town a grey zone. This image shows the destruction just a few days ago.

Kreminna-Siversk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Chervonpopivka, Zhitlivka, Serebryanske, Bilogorivka and Verkhnyokamianske. Just to be sure, read that one more time.

Wargonzo are talking about RU counter attacks in the direction of Nevs'ke.

I saw a video talking about the frontline being 3-4km away from Nevs'ke, my take on the situation is they are attacking from the north-east.

Looking closer at Kreminna, it think we can start seeing the end of the Russian presence in the town. Both shellings and reported repulsed attacks by GSUA indicates the AFU is in or at the outskirts of Chervonopopivka, Pishchane and Zhytlivka.

South-west of Kreminna, the UA general staff reported a repulsed attack around the tiny settlement Serebryansʹke. This finally gave us a rough position of the UA units on the east-west axis in the area.

As can be seen here, the level of shit they are in is accumulating for the RU forces in Kreminna. A UA liberation of Zhytlivka opens up for an envelopment of Kreminna and will most likely force RU to withdraw.

Bakhmut
The AFU repulsed attacks around Soledar, Bakhmutske, Pidhorodne and Bakhmut. The AFU still report shellings around Yakovlivka and Kurdyumivka, I will the status of those two as contested until I see proof of RU capture or frequent attacks on the towns west of it.

I think the Bakhmut defense will hold as long as Soledar remains in UA hands. After that I'm more unsure. I don't think a head on attack on Bakhmut will be very successful for the Russians, an envelopment and capturing Soledar is necessary for them to capture B in my opinion.

I think RuAF need to achieve something like this, where the magenta line would represent what RU need to capture to gain control over the two supply routes in to Bakhmut. We are far from that considering RU have been attacking Soledar since June.

Nothing has been reported so far from the south so far today. As we could see yesterday AFU continues to hit Command and logistic points in the south.

https://twitter.com/AzovMolozensky/status/1601896288789962754

IF the AFU are planning an attack in the south, I would expect escalated attacks like these to go on for for a couple of months. They did both in the Kherson region and the Kharkiv region.

There has been a lot of talk about both sides having issues with the ammo stocks. At some point, and I don't think it's very far away, the production rate of ammo will probably set the pace of the war. (If not already)

This is your weekly reminder to contact a politician in your country and ask them to escalate military aid to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1595463870365290503

I also like to recommend donating to an organization providing aid for Ukraine. Today I chose @MriyaAid Making it a monthly donation is the best way to support Ukraine. You can also listen in and ask questions at @MriyaReport
mriyaaid.org

It seems like the goat lord is still alive. I linked a tweet from another goat lover, but he could not refrain from talking RU Nazi propaganda in the comments. I had to block him, thus the re-post.

According to DeepState there was a smoking accident in a RU ammo warehouse in Novopetrykivka, it supposedly lasted for hours. Hopefully there will be
t.me/DeepStateUA/14…

RuAF seems to have attacked in several areas in the south today according to Regional Directorate of Territorial Defense Forces East7.

"While the country is enjoying Sunday rest, 231 separate battalion from 08.00 am demolishing the invaders.
At present, there are already destroyed tanks, BMPs and BTRI hordes!!!
The fight is heavy, it is still ongoing - wait for news!"
facebook.com/troskhidzsu/po…

"The Russian armored attack takes place in several directions at 8 am. Tanks, BMP, BTR are coming into the attack. The video shows another area where the enemy attacks - almost live broadcast..."

"...But the fighters of our brigade and here turn the enemy armor into scrap metal, and their crews into fertilizer."
facebook.com/BrTODnipro/vid…

It seems like there was a larger coordinated attack in the south, I have 231st battalion in the area of Velyka Novosilka, but the info is several months old.

It might be related to this.
h/t @VirginMathemat1

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1601930819144146945

Shelling locations reported today by the UA general staff. I said yesterday RuAF were shelling on the depth along the southern front, that is also true today. It might have been related to the attack around Velyka Novosilka.

There is a new location "near" Lobkove. The exact location of the shelling is not known, the placement of the pin is just at the town. But it could indicate some movement south towards the town by the AFU.