These images shows the RU progress in the Bakhmut area for the last 3 months. Can we all calm down now?
2022-08-31 vs 2022-12-11
That is about 10km south of Bakhmut.
While Russian forces was busy gaining 10k south of Bakhmut, Ukraine did this. They liberated some where around 25000km2 in the Kharkiv and Kherson region.
Ok so lets talk about this bridge too, which has been blown. Unsure when. But let's assume it was recently.
The Russians have had "fire control of that intersection and road in to Bakhmut from the north for months. Russian tanks shoot "indirect fire" at this range with decent accuracy. Pic to would be the POV from a RU tank if aiming for that intersection.
I don't think it's a big deal. A little reminder from last time the AFU blew a bridge in Bakhmut.
Two other things to consider. 1. AFU are rotating out personnel, they would probably not do this if they were worried about losing Bakhmut.
2. I'm fairly certain the AFU have units and resources to allocate if the they feel it's needed. For now Bakhmut serve it's purpose of binding a large RU force trying to advance on a fort. While Ukraine is building combat power and resting units.
Much deserved rest for 93rd which first defended/attacked south of Izium the entire summer to be transferred to defend Bakhmut. militaryland.net/news/ukrainian…
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992