These images shows the RU progress in the Bakhmut area for the last 3 months. Can we all calm down now?
2022-08-31 vs 2022-12-11
That is about 10km south of Bakhmut.
While Russian forces was busy gaining 10k south of Bakhmut, Ukraine did this. They liberated some where around 25000km2 in the Kharkiv and Kherson region.
Ok so lets talk about this bridge too, which has been blown. Unsure when. But let's assume it was recently.
The Russians have had "fire control of that intersection and road in to Bakhmut from the north for months. Russian tanks shoot "indirect fire" at this range with decent accuracy. Pic to would be the POV from a RU tank if aiming for that intersection.
I don't think it's a big deal. A little reminder from last time the AFU blew a bridge in Bakhmut.
Two other things to consider. 1. AFU are rotating out personnel, they would probably not do this if they were worried about losing Bakhmut.
2. I'm fairly certain the AFU have units and resources to allocate if the they feel it's needed. For now Bakhmut serve it's purpose of binding a large RU force trying to advance on a fort. While Ukraine is building combat power and resting units.
Much deserved rest for 93rd which first defended/attacked south of Izium the entire summer to be transferred to defend Bakhmut. militaryland.net/news/ukrainian…
🧵The situation in Vovchansk is interesting. The map shows geolocated positions the last 8 days h/t @UAControlMap. When the first rumors about an encirclement at the aggregate plant, I thought it was BS. But it appears there is some truth to it, supposedly 83rd VDV.
The extent of isolation and the amount of people is unclear. Once interesting thing is the Russians committed one of their best units, 2nd Special Purpose Brigade to fight in the town. We have mostly seen poorly trained and equipped units without mechanized support in this fight
According to RU channels UA withdrew from the Filtration Plant in the east and Zenith in the south. This is good news, since avoiding an encirclement should be a priority at this point. It seems the coke plant and Kvartal high-rises are the current UA strongholds.
RU forces continue to try to fully encircle Avdiivka pushing mainly from 3 directions.
It remains to be seen if Ukraine are planning to withdraw from the east side of the city, but I think it's a pretty good idea to do so.
UA might chose to fight for the coke plant and Kvartal for a bit, but the gap for the gloc is only 3km and consists of 2 windbreaks.
I frequently get questions like:
"Are you ok?"
"What happened?"
"Why did you stop posting?"
So here we go⬇️
Yes I'm ok.
(This post is sponsored by Ramzan Fragglerov)
Time.
I have less time to follow Ukraine. I usually spent about 3-4 hours a day to just make my daily threads and going through all the information channels. To be able to keep the information reliable, I have to put in 6-10h per day. I dont have that kind of time anymore.
I lost my best friend in March, so I had go get a new one. He is getting a lot of my attention now.
🧵During the last week, Ukrainian forces have advanced 32km2 in the Robotyne direction. They are expanding their penetration of the Surovikin and have reached the outskirts of Verbove and Verbove.