Thread by @kevinbonham

#Qldpol Courier-Mail Yougov polling but for the noise about "shock" results there is not much to see here, wait for the important ones

couriermail.com.au/news/queenslan…

I've commented about "enjoys the high life" before. The Courier-Mail clearly loves this question but it's not clear if the voters who say yes to it see it as a negative. Would they commission this question if the incumbent was a man?

"Shock result if election held today" coming in an hour might be more interesting - we will see!

Palaszczuk Satisfied 40 Dissatisfied 41. A completely respectable net -1 but "Queenslanders are now less satisfied with Annastacia Palaszczuk’s performance than they were with her deeply unpopular predecessor Campbell Newman’s on the eve of his disastrous 2015 election loss." ??

To justify this they refer to a 41-52 result in 2015 but that was the Galaxy released 9 Jan, not the "eve" of the election. (And it's not comparing like with like anyway). The *final* Newspoll, the genuine eve of the election, he was 35-58.

#ThisIsNotPollReporting

Ditto Bligh. "Then Labor premier Anna Bligh’s satisfaction rating sat at 43 per cent before the 2012 election wipe-out, with a net result of -9." That was more than a month out from the election, there was a later Galaxy with her at 36-61 (Newspoll 36-58)

#YouGov Crisafulli net +4 (31-27)
Palaszczuk leads as better Premier 39-28 (skews to incumbents, so this is not bad for Crisafulli)

The headline "Less popular than Bligh or Newman" represents a compounding multiple abuse of poll statistics. If you see a print copy of the Courier-Mail with this headline, please recycle it before anyone else is infected. Wear gloves.

And the big shock result is ... oh unchanged 2PP at 50-50 (ALP 34 L-NP 38 Green 13 ON 11 others 4)

https://twitter.com/Leroy_Lynch/status/1602189995636555776

For the YouGov poll I agree with their 2PP estimate of 50-50.

Full wording of the YouGov poll here. The poll wording is fine; the Courier-Mail's reporting of it and of past polls is the problem.

commercial.yougov.com/rs/464-VHH-988…

Note eg that in B7 the good and (in one case arguably) bad attributes are rotated which is excellent design.

More of the nonsense "the Palaszczuk Government’s polling is now definitively at its lowest ebb since 2016". Completely false, they were 48% 2PP with a 32% primary in a YouGov poll in June 2020 months before an election they won with an increased majority!

There need to be consequences for supposed newspapers that misreport facts about polling this badly.

(The article adds a qualifier "Other than a brief period after former deputy premier Jackie Trad’s trainwreck of a year in 2019," The brief period was most of a year long!)

(a note for anyone who sees this thread but not the new tweet that I have posted an article about this:

https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1602550056741060608

)

I am finding still more of this rubbish the more I look. The paper edition has a headline "Six-year low puts LNP in running" over an article that explains that it isn't a six-year low.

"The Premier's acolytes will no doubt publicly dismiss the poll as a media beat-up." (editorial)

The poll is not a media beat-up @couriermail, but your staggeringly sloppy, intellectually dishonest, utterly biased and multiply awful "reporting" of it is.

I do not think Lewis Carroll's seven maids with seven mops sweeping for half a year could clean up the mess the Courier-Mail has made of reporting a single and quite unremarkable poll.