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Dec 12 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Peter Obi, seems to be the best option for giving Nigeria the direction and energy it needs, but he also has the smallest chance of winning.

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We say Peter Obi has the smallest chance of becoming president among the top parties (APC, PDP & LP) because the Labour Party is trying to do something not done so far in Nigerian politics: Win the presidency without holding a single governorship and almost zero legislative seats
Currently, the APC and PDP hold a total of 35/36 governorship and 420/469 federal legislative seats. The Labour Party holds only 1 senate seat. In this article, we talk about how important structure is in Nigerian politics.

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While various polls show Peter Obi in the lead, we do not view them as representative in terms of coverage or number of respondents. Also, the Labour Party has little experience in national campaigns when compared to the APC and PDP. This will also matter in a close race. Image
Finally, the Labour Party couldn’t muster any decent showing in the Osun elections of July 18th. Admittedly this was only shortly after Peter Obi joined the party, but it still speaks to the difficulty in converting enthusiasm into votes. Image

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More from @StearsInsights

Stears Profile picture
Dec 14
Neither Atiku’s nor Tinubu’s manifesto inspires confidence that either candidate can steer Nigeria in the right direction.

Are things different with Peter Obi’s manifesto? Let’s find out!

THREAD
#StearsManifestoWeek 1/11 Image
Let's start with electricity, every Nigerian's pain point.

The LP power sector plans are structured according to the sections of the electricity value chain: generation, transmission, distribution, and a bonus section for financing.

2/11
Unlike the PDP and APC, the Labour party’s power manifesto plans ended with financing sources, from long-term multilateral debt to private sector support.

3/11
Read 11 tweets
Stears Profile picture
Dec 7
The CBN came out with another one of its surprise announcements yesterday.

The apex bank introduced a policy that limits over-the-counter cash withdrawals from commercial banks to ₦100,000 (c. $225) for individuals & ₦200,000 (c. $451) for businesses per week.

THREAD 1/16 Image
This announcement has stirred an uproar across social media with questions like: “What are the reasons behind this new policy?” and “Is this to aid financial inclusion or target politicians?”

2/16
Well, the CBN stated that the revised naira withdrawal policy is to complement the launch of the newly redesigned naira notes, which is in line with its cashless policy and financial inclusion mandate.

3/16
Read 17 tweets
Stears Profile picture
Dec 7
The World Bank estimates that 45% of Nigerians don’t have access to electricity from the grid. That’s 99 million people.

APC & PDP have promised to solve this problem if elected. But which of them is better placed to give 🇳🇬 24HRs electricity?

THREAD #StearsManifestoWeek
1/8
At a glance, here are APC and PDP’s plans for the power sector.

2/8 Image
As seen in the table, the APC’s manifesto acknowledges most of the bottlenecks in the power sector. It also highlights improvement strategies—from tariffs to metering, generation and transmission capacity, rural electrification, and solar adoption.

3/8
Read 8 tweets
Stears Profile picture
Dec 6
Since 2015, Nigeria has been in the top 10 of the most terrorised countries in the world. Atiku plans to solve this insecurity problem by hiring 1 million police officers, while Tinubu wants to ‘recharge’ Lake Chad.

Who has a more effective plan?

THREAD
#StearsManifestoWeek 1/8
There is a likely consensus that Nigeria is under-policed, but both presidential candidates view the solution differently.

2/8
Tinubu aims to reallocate the existing police workforce away from VIP security and guard duties while handing over those functions to the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC).

3/8
Read 8 tweets
Stears Profile picture
Dec 5
According to his manifesto, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress (APC) plans to achieve a 10% GDP growth rate for Nigeria over the next four years, if elected.

What is the possibility and implication of this growth plan?

THREAD 1/5
#StearsManifestoWeek
First, Tinubu’s growth plan is audacious, given the current state of the economy. Since 2014, the Nigerian economy hasn’t achieved an annual growth above 4%.

However, this ambition comes at a price. Image
To achieve APC’s growth target, Tinubu will have to spend based on growth plans for the country rather than the amount the country earns. And so, if his government’s revenue doesn’t meet its growth requirement, it will need to borrow until it reaches its desired growth goal.
Read 5 tweets
Stears Profile picture
Oct 19
Nigeria’s Liquified Natural Gas company (NLNG) has declared Force Majeure.

So what does this mean for Nigerians? We have answers for you.

THREAD 1/16
By declaring force majeure, NLNG is saying that it cannot supply LNG to customers it has contracts with due to unforeseen circumstances (the flooding in Nigeria).

But NLNG has been going through it since last year.

2/16
Oil and gas companies like Shell supply natural gas to NLNG, which converts natural gas, a gas (duh), to a liquid called liquified natural gas (LNG) for export via ship to other countries.

3/16
Read 16 tweets

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