Kevin Fatkin Profile picture
Dec 12 10 tweets 7 min read
Here is my morning run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOps #volland. The magnet at $SPX 4000 has grown by approx $20bil. Repellent at 3850 remain, accelerate if broken. See attached. Positive gamma shows ceiling at 4000 as well. ImageImage
Now let's do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Vanna magnet @ $400. Repel @ $390. Neg gamma @ $395/$397 could assist move to $400 if broken. The 3-day delta forecast shows we could go either way (expected). ImageImageImage
$SPY Dark Pools help paint the the picture further. Sig prints at $393.10, slightly bullish. Clearing $396 would open the way to $400. Big shift in volume and bullish DP sentiment. ImageImageImageImage
Now, take a look at 5-day market net flow and delta positioning across the market. Puts continue to accumulate, most likely for downside protection. Market wide deltas shifted bearish again by about $277 million (-0.277 billion) which is expected for the recent chop. ImageImageImage
Lastly, we need to make sure we keep all the upcoming macro number releases in mind as they are the big fundamental drivers of the market. We have inflation expectations today at 11am and CPI tomorrow at 8:30am. This is the big one everyone is anticipating. Image
CPI should be the event that allows us to move out of this consolidation on higher time frames. The dealer structure and dark pools makes me think we'll be parked at 4000 $SPX / $400 $SPY by the end of the day. However, inflation expectations could throw that off.
@WizOfOps One thing I should note about this - when CPI passes, IV will drop which is why 4000 is favored over 3850. Of course, this assumes no bad news surprises. I would never encourage gambling into CPI.
We just "tractor beamed" to the 3975 "Vanna magnet" on $SPX outlined in the screen shots. I have major regrets for not holding longs since these VWAP holds on $ES 😅. Also, as outlined, $397 breaking on $SPY caused MM buying assistance #volland. ImageImageImage
Well... 18 points away on $SPX... what a run. Vanna is no joke.

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More from @Fatty_Trades

Dec 14
Here is my morning run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOps #volland. The Vanna magnet at $SPX 4000 remains along with the repellents at 4100. Supportive Gamma at 4000 as well. If 4100 were to break from an event, massive acceleration would occur to the upside. See screen shots. ImageImage
Now let's do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Vanna magnet @ $400. Repel @ $390. Neg vanna/gamma @ $404/405 could assist move higher IF broken. The 3-day delta structure indicates higher likelihood of downside. ImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Dec 13
Hey all - I wasn't able to get my morning update out and now that CPI has happened, the data will be skewed anyway and likely be restructured not long after open. Keep in mind we have significant macro events all week and a major OPEX on Friday (will talk about on Friday). Image
I'll be back with an update tomorrow morning, but as of now just know $SPX opening above 4100 would be significant accelerant from both Vanna and Gamma, otherwise it would be resistant. We also have many $SPY dark pool prints around $398.90.
I'm always careful on CPI days when trading, I tend to favor a continuation higher. However, with a strong rejection @ $ES 4180 off a major bearish OB created 9/12/22, I'll be careful when we approach again. A break would be significant.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 9
Here is a run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOps #volland. The magnet at 4000 renaubs. Accelerant's to the downside if broken, but will initially be supportive (see attached). Not much change from yesterday.
Now let's do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Structure still indicates pinning, however if we break below 390, accelerants could be significant, but unlikely. The 400 Vanna magnet remains.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 8
Today I want to do a run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOps #volland. We see a small, diminishing magnet at 4000. Accellerants to the downside if broken, but will initially be supportive (see attached). ImageImage
Now lets do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Structure indicates pinning, however if we break below 392, accelerants could be significant. ImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets

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