Countries ability to wage wars and raise debt are linked through history - US Liberty Bonds or UK War Bonds sold to retail investors during WW1 etc. showed that patriotism = powerful investment advice. But what about for funding #UkraineWar? Should the EU get in too? a proposal🧵
2) EU debt is invariably controversial, and probably some would consider the suggestion to market it directly to Europeans to fund fighting a common threat (Russian aggression in Ukraine) would set a "dangerous precedent". But why not? @gmfus we are looking into this, too.
3) #Canada recently did so, to offer Canadians an opportunity to directly support Ukraine through the "Ukraine Sovereignty Bond", partnering with Canadian financial institutions to offer such a bond to indivial investors in denominations of C$100 canada.ca/en/department-…
4) The Ukraine Sovereignty Bond is fully backed by Canada's AAA rating and upon maturity in 5y will be redeemed alongside Canada's regular government bonds. It nonetheless offers a direct channel for individual Canadians to express their direct personal financial support for 🇺🇦
5) @EU_Commission today issues bonds on behalf of the EU for its different funding needs - #NGEU, SURE, MFA etc., incl. in the form of private placements. Could the @EU_Commission for instance negotiate a "private placement type deal" with EU banks/institutional investors to
6) be remarketed/resold to individual Europeans in the the form of small say EUR100 denominations? It would be an opportunity for the EU to directly engage with the European public on an important subject of common European importance and enjoying widespread public support.
7) An "EU Ukraine Sovereignty Bond", backed like regular @EU_Commission debt, but targeged towards retail investors, would be an invariably "political act" and help normalize the issuance of EU-level debt to solve common problems in the eyes of European publics.
8) There is AFAIK no obvious legal restriction (... but I am not a lawyer, so mauybe wrong :-) ) for the @EU_Commission top enter into this kind of contract with private financial institutions to literally take the EU's support for Ukraine directly to the EU publics.
9) Why not test individual Europeans' willingness to support Ukraine financially with an "EU Ukraine Sovereignty Bond" issued via private EU financial institutions? What say you @vonderleyen @JHahnEU @GertJanEU - time to test Europeans' willingness to fund EU's Ukraine support?

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More from @jfkirkegaard

Jan 18
Har nu et par gange læst @JeppeKofod's interview med @ToreKeller om DK's EU politik og et kommende nyt "bredt Europa politisk forlig" i @folketinget. En🧵om implikationerne i det der bliver sagt. information.dk/udland/2022/01…
(2) DK i ❤️af EU (ikke mere udenomssnak om "Europa" eller "vores kontinent"... det er EU det her drejer sig om!), som lige nu trues af den største væbnede trussels siden 1989, uden et opgør med forsvarsforbeholdet og de andre forbehold synes "real politisk problematisk", men på
(3) den anden side hvis man lukker "forbeholds-dørene", så må man jo være villig til at åbne andre EU døre... hvis man altså vil udover de tomme politiske floskler. Her signalerer @jeppekofod IMO nye og potentielt konstruktive toner med ny "kompromisvilje" overfor sparepolitikken
Read 12 tweets
Sep 27, 2021
A quick DE thread, but I obviously have no idea really about the outcome of intense negotiations ahead. So just some auxiliary observations: 1) strong centrist vote - both AfD and Linke lose and are now de facto consigned to former East Germany with 75+% of vote in Center. 1/n
2) DE will now almost certainly have a 3-party coalition, as a new inverse GroKo with Scholz as Chancellor seem impossible to accept for CDU. This is a break from DE traditional very stable 2-party coalitions and likely heralds the end of very long chancellorships of 15+y 2/n
which will structurally weaken DE in Europe as the chancellor will no longer routinely be the longest ruling big country leader. 3) Coalition negotiations will be messy, as DE has no tradition of a single “royal investigator” at the time to scope out possible coalitions so 3/n
Read 11 tweets
May 6, 2021
Reaching very high levels of immunity from say 90% vaccination rates with more contagious virus variants in circulation seems the ultimate goal for vacc rollouts across the world. Good news is Europe - and UK especially - is reaching such levels for high priority groups now. A 🧵
1) Europe and the US are now facing the challenge of ensuring that up to 90% of also younger age groups ultimately gets vaccinated. Israel - a global frontrunner in vacc rollouts - offer important insights on how to nudge people less personally at risk of covid19 to get jabbed.
2) "The green-pass program worked—not because it proved one’s vaccination status and thereby enabled access to public places, but because it spurred the hesitant to get inoculated. And it worked." economist.com/by-invitation/…
Read 6 tweets
May 5, 2021
An update; Vaccine news are improving across most of the EU as rollout accelerates. HU/MT now near US/UK levels, 3 laggards remains BG, LV and CR, while others roughly on par. Noticeably DE, ES and IT proceeding rapidly through EU vaccination rankings. A 🧵
2) A great communications gift meanwhile was given by @POTUS to the @EU_Commission this week, as US gov now hopes to "vaccinate 70% of adult Americans by July 4th". @vonderleyen could not have wished for more! apnews.com/article/corona…
3) @POTUS's new policy target is rhetorically similar enough to @vonderleyen's own goal of "having enough doses for vaccinating 70% of EU adults in July" to essentially signal to the EU publics and MS that the EU and US will "exit the pandemic together"
Read 12 tweets
Apr 30, 2021
Time to talk global vaccine exports - a topic where data availability (hopefully) will soon improve as opportunities for "vaccine diplomacy" emerge and - despite the Indian tragedy and glaring global inequalities in vacc access, the news is generally quite good. A 🧵
2) Best news (H/T @ChadBown) is that @pfizer is now FINALLY starting to fulfill international contracts also from US located production, following the (alleged) expiry of de facto contractual bans on doing so. Up to 1mn doses now going to Mexico. 👍 reuters.com/business/healt…
3) EU exports continue to rise rapidly and reached - once the earliest shipments in Dec 2020-Jan 2021 are included in the data - ~161mn by late Apr with 148mn since Jan 31st 2021 alone bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 14 tweets
Apr 23, 2021
"We don't have enough to be confident to send it abroad"? This is absurd from @POTUS and US vaccine nationalism at its clearest. Consider what amount of vaccines the US has "on the shelves" now, what it has sent to others and what say the EU has done to date? 🧵
1) The US has per the @CDCgov a current unused stockpile of ~63mn FDA approved vacc doses (@Pfizer/ @moderna_tx / J&J), number that due to slowing vaccination rates as Americans who want it has already got it is rising at over 1mn/day.... covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
2) On top of that US medical experts estimate that the US now has 35-40mn non-FDA approved @AstraZeneca vaccines in storage, that it (given its focus on mRNA vaccines and AZ's side effects) is highly unlikely to ever use
Read 7 tweets

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