Since Journos keep writing puff pieces about SBF parents let me give the examples of how they are individually at enormous legal risk just based upon known and acknowledged details. I'm going to focus on one transaction: the condos in the Bahamas 1/n
Scenario #1: The condos are in their names and the company paid for the condos directly. This creates two specific problems for them: a) they could very easily need portrayed legally as insiders which given the problems creates all kinds of problems b) they would have to 2/n
Report this as income leaving then with a $30-40m tax bill. If they received compensation to pay for the tax bill from the company this compounds problem #1. If they don't have the cash to pay the tax bill that creates a whole other problem. Depending on when they received 3/n
The real estate (i.e. they already filled taxes when the real estate was received) this could create criminal tax problems if they failed to recognize the real estate in the year it was received. If the real estate was received this year but the tax bill hasn't been 4/n
Accounted for, (i.e. they owe taxes on real estate they now own) they are still on the hook for the tax payment but the assets are likely enjoined and they have no way to access cash needed to satisfy the tax bill.5/n
Scenario #2: Real estate was paid for by son. They are separated at least currently from being considered insider but so the other tax issues remain. 6/n
Scenario #3: Depending on when specifically the real estate was purchased the bankruptcy trustee, depending on some different issues, will likely seek to clawback the funds and real estate. Depending on the issues like how exactly it was structured and funneled (as covered) 7/n
Creates a whole secondary layer of problems and resulting tax issues. I have no idea what the tax implications would be if the real estate is clawed back. 8/n
I should emphasize these are just the easy to spot legal issues SBF parents face. I'm sure they gave many many more as this is from just one transaction we know about. Have fun kids

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More from @BaldingsWorld

Dec 11
I want to answer this question in a very real way and not snarky or condescending at all. I think this is a major debate especially on the right. So let me lay out a number of reasons why I am pro-immigration. 1/n
1. If you look at measurable data immigrants are great citizens (broadly defined). They commit crimes at very low rates, the move rapidly towards population norms across a variety of measurables, hold down jobs, pay taxes, and yes in short they basically assimilate very well 2/n
2. Whether it is high or low skilled, immigrants take risks at higher rates specifically like starting businesses. Being an immigrant by its definition is a risky under taking, and this carries over into areas like starting businesses. One of my biggest worries about the US 3/n
Read 8 tweets
Dec 8
I think there is a high probability this significantly over states the risks. Let's start with the wild and crazy assumption that Chinese data on corona is NOT entirely accurate with the data UNDER stating true disease incidence. Couple this with at least some evidence 1/n
Of excess deaths in China between 2020-2022. Now it should be emphasized that I would set wide error ranges on every parameter here BUT all of this would still imply that there is actually a REDUCED risk of mass death from corona in China than is understood. I should say 2/n
I am relatively confident in saying this because we can say with pretty high certainty China understated disease prevalence, say with moderate confidence deaths were in excess of normal (bolstering disease spread confidence), pointing to the probability that future outcomes 3/n
Read 4 tweets
Dec 5
I read this article through and it has two specific problems. First, this does not read like something written by a world leader with intimate non-public knowledge of major issues but rather it reads like an advanced undergrad and graduate essay on solving geopolitical 1/n
Problems if you were Germany. I mean I almost want proof this wasn't written by OpenAI GPT after being given the prompt "Describe German foreign policy in 2022 in five pages." The buzz word salad is out of control. Says nothing new notable, talking in vague fuzzy terms 2/n
That use a lot of words to basically say nothing at all. Trust me you aren't missing anything not reading at all. Second, the words it does use sound more like cheerleading than actual insights or defined solutions. For instance, Europe must play a central role in European 3/n
Read 6 tweets
Dec 1
This is an absolute tour de force led by Matt Pottinger and David Feith. This strikes at the heart of maybe the major problem of China studies from the academy to think tanks is how incredibly shallow it is. So incredibly shallow Follow me a minute 1/n
foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinpi…
The entire thrust of the article is: what is Xi telling the CCP. That's it. It's not all kind of complex data analytics. It's not reams of historical research and Freudian analysis of growing up Xi. What is Xi saying and how is that translating to action in the CCP? 2/n
So why does this matter? There is a VAST difference between what the CCP says to itself or how it behaves internally and how it presents itself externally. The same Party that will become indignant when we block PLA officers from US military labs screaming racism is filled 3/n
Read 8 tweets
Nov 30
A brief note on COVID lockdowns in China that will unfortunately provide basically no answers. I would strongly caution against having a binary view of China/city is opening/closing from COVID. That's not how it has really worked in practice or even policy. Let me explain 1/n
In the past 24 hours we have seen reports that Shanghai is preparing to go into lockdown but Chengdu and Guangzhou are opening. Let's take it at face value and say they are true. Lots of different places with lots of different motivations in a country that big mean 2/n
You could find a couple of data points to support almost anything you wanted to. It's very blurry right now. Second, lockdown or opening doesn't really mean lock down or opening in a strict binary sense. For instance, the official line now is pushing dynamic zero covid. 3/n
Read 9 tweets
Nov 30
A short purely speculative thread on the death of Jiang Zemin. The reason I say that the death could "get interesting" is that even in the most stable of authoritarian and communist states, key deaths have a tendency to precipitate changes. Add in, what I believe is 1/n
well founded reports of CCP infighting, the recent re-election for life of Xi, and recent protests and how Jiang represented to people in China a very different China than the Xi China and you have a possible recipe for interesting events. That said let me STRONGLY 2/n
Emphasize, Xi and his team knowing this make sure that absolutely nothing happens. It is possible that nothing happens for a variety of reasons. It is possible that lots of things happen we just don't learn about any of them for a long time. Xi and Jiang are linked to 3/n
Read 5 tweets

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