🧵FTX CEO John Ray's prepared statement for tomorrow's hearing: 1) Customer assets from FTX were commingled with assets from the Alameda trading platform. 2) Alameda used client funds to engage in margin trading which exposed customer funds to massive losses.
3) The FTX Group went on a spending binge in late 2021 through 2022, during which approximately $5 billion was spent buying a myriad of businesses and investments, many of which may be worth only a fraction of what was paid for them.
4) Loans and other payments were made to insiders in excess of $1 billion. 5) FTX stored certain private keys to crypto assets without effective security controls 6) FTX used computer infrastrucure that gave senior management access to systems that stored customer assets
1/ Don't get confused by the 7.3% estimated CPI compared to 7.7% previous month.
Since yearly CPI is a 12-month sliding window, this does not mean we are expecting a drastic slowdown in inflation, only that Nov 2021 was a 0.9% increase and is not counted in YoY any more.
2/ That is why even though yearly CPI is expected to be 0.4% lower than the previous one (7.3% vs 7.7%), the monthly change is only 0.1% lower (0.4% to 0.3%).
Remember yearly values are a sliding 12-period window, meaning we remove the oldest value to replace it with a new one.
1/n In 4 days at 13:30 UTC the CPI numbers for October drop.
-Headline CPI is expected to have gone up 8% from last year, 0.7% from last month.
-Core CPI is expected to have gone up 6.5% from last year, 0.5% from last month.
2/n Like every month as long as inflation is the hottest topic, you should be ready to max long or max short strong deviations from forecasts (ideally with a bot).
Eventually, one of them will provide a generational trade you can boast about to your grand-kids 40 years later.
3/n In the past months 0.2% deviations from forecasts have called for strong movements, but you can aim for larger to have a more secure trade.
I will probably be doing something like:
-<=7.8% && <=6.3% small long
-<=7.6% && <= 6.2% big long
->=8.3% && >= 6.7% small short.
1/n Today marks one year since this account was created to leak the Tesla - DOGE payment integration.
And what an insane year it has been!
We found some exploits, we shitposted, we shared econ numbers and a bunch of alpha!
Grateful for those 12 months and for all of you.
2/n The plan for me before the end of November is to first launch the Tree official Discord for news & coding.
-At first accessible to Binance referrals with active weekly trades.
-Discussions on News/Event trading.
-Coding tutorials, snippets and help.
1/ People in general have always had a tendency towards cults of personality, and Crypto exacerbates that.
For quite some time during the bull run, Andre Cronje was THE ambassador for $FTM.
Him leaving in the first place was a great short opp. on $FTM (which I also took then).
2/ When @zoomerfied shared in Discord a LinkedIn screenshot where Andre was shown associated with $FTM again, I immediately went to check: it was real.
From there I sensed the narrative on a coin down 93% from the top, and tweeted about it for the early alpha.
3/ In Crypto, it is quite often not really about the facts, but about how fast the piece of information will spread.
$FTM was known to have a very big community, and everyone in it (or not) knew about Andre and his involvement.
1/n 🧵On Market Efficiency, Expected Value, News/Event Trading, and one of the simplest (but not easiest) edges you can acquire.
In this thread we'll discuss the Efficient-market hypothesis, its premise, why it's only very partially correct, and what edge you can derive from it.
2/n The Efficient-market hypothesis states that at all times, asset prices reflect all available information. This is only partially true.
In reality, at any time T, asset prices reflect the perception the current market participants have of the information they have received.
3/n The distinction between the two is: information is something that is interpreted, and something that spreads. It cannot be priced in the exact moment it comes out.
This introduces two variables that any news trader uses:
-interpretation of headline
-speed of headline spread