1/ Yesterday's Doge trade: On reacting, Sizing, and being degenerate when you need to be.
The essence of News Trading isn't speed, it is knowing when to size up.

I all started when someone in the Tree News Discord posted that they were seeing the Doge icon as the Twitter logo. 2/ People were mostly in disbelief, and Twitter caching didn't help because some people were still not seeing it.
A minute later, DB tweeted the new logo as well, at which point I started buying: first $3m, then $2m, and a final $3m a bit later.

Final position: $8m.

🧵Tree's best and worst trades of 2022.
Lots of missed opportunities, some not utilized fully, but let's have a small recap of what we went through this year!
At the end: a list of lessons I gained through it all.

Total yearly Binance Futures PnL: +$4,177,316.217 First, the best trades: a collection of my biggest hitters this year.
A reminder that most of your profits will very likely come from a handful of trades you must try to nail.

🧵FTX CEO John Ray's prepared statement for tomorrow's hearing:
1) Customer assets from FTX were commingled with assets from the Alameda trading platform.
2) Alameda used client funds to engage in margin trading which exposed customer funds to massive losses. 3) The FTX Group went on a spending binge in late 2021 through 2022, during which approximately $5 billion was spent buying a myriad of businesses and investments, many of which may be worth only a fraction of what was paid for them.

CPI and FOMC together this week for the first time in a while, Tues and Wed respectively.

Expected:
-7.3% CPI (0.3% MoM), previous 7.7% (0.4% MoM)
-6.1% Core CPI (0.3% MoM), previous 6.3% (0.3% MoM)
-75% odds for 50BPS increase, 25% for 75BPS, previous 75BPS.

A few things: 1/ Don't get confused by the 7.3% estimated CPI compared to 7.7% previous month.

Since yearly CPI is a 12-month sliding window, this does not mean we are expecting a drastic slowdown in inflation, only that Nov 2021 was a 0.9% increase and is not counted in YoY any more.

Incredible @coffeebreak_YT commentary & interview with Scam Bankrun-Fraud on Youtube.

🧵👇 1/ Sam claims he donated as much to Republicans as to Democrats, except the donations to Republicans were "dark", so as to not show publicly.

He mentions that he did that to soothe the media and not draw their ire because "they are all secretly liberal".

1/n In 4 days at 13:30 UTC the CPI numbers for October drop.

-Headline CPI is expected to have gone up 8% from last year, 0.7% from last month.
-Core CPI is expected to have gone up 6.5% from last year, 0.5% from last month. 2/n Like every month as long as inflation is the hottest topic, you should be ready to max long or max short strong deviations from forecasts (ideally with a bot).

Eventually, one of them will provide a generational trade you can boast about to your grand-kids 40 years later.

1/n Today marks one year since this account was created to leak the Tesla - DOGE payment integration.
And what an insane year it has been!

We found some exploits, we shitposted, we shared econ numbers and a bunch of alpha!

Grateful for those 12 months and for all of you. 2/n The plan for me before the end of November is to first launch the Tree official Discord for news & coding.
-At first accessible to Binance referrals with active weekly trades.
-Discussions on News/Event trading.
-Coding tutorials, snippets and help.

accounts.binance.com/en/register?re…

1/ People in general have always had a tendency towards cults of personality, and Crypto exacerbates that.

For quite some time during the bull run, Andre Cronje was THE ambassador for $FTM.
Him leaving in the first place was a great short opp. on $FTM (which I also took then).

https://twitter.com/monitor_magic/status/1588128085001601024

2/ When @zoomerfied shared in Discord a LinkedIn screenshot where Andre was shown associated with $FTM again, I immediately went to check: it was real.

From there I sensed the narrative on a coin down 93% from the top, and tweeted about it for the early alpha.

1/n 🧵On Market Efficiency, Expected Value, News/Event Trading, and one of the simplest (but not easiest) edges you can acquire.

In this thread we'll discuss the Efficient-market hypothesis, its premise, why it's only very partially correct, and what edge you can derive from it. 2/n The Efficient-market hypothesis states that at all times, asset prices reflect all available information. This is only partially true.

In reality, at any time T, asset prices reflect the perception the current market participants have of the information they have received.

1/5 Today's magic number: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
Every month the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a report on employment in the US.

Significant numbers include:
-Number of Jobs added (NFP)
-Unemployment rate
-Average Hourly Earnings 2/5 In the current climate:
-lower NFP, higher unemployment, and lower wages is "good" for crypto & equities.
-higher NFP, lower unemployment, and higher wages is bad.

Wait Tree I don't understand, how can more jobs and more wages be bad for stocks?

On playing both sides, R/R asymmetry, and catalysts: a $LUNC case study.

Throughout August and September LUNC pumped 5-6x in anticipation of its 1.2% burn tax being put to a vote.

Usually you would be cautious to short parabolic moves, but that one was different. The strength of that pump was partly because retail was somehow misled to believe the tax would be present on Cex trading.

As the coin goes higher, the R/R of longing goes down and the R/R of shorting goes up.
But there's no top on parabolic moves, and that can get risky.

On problem solving.
Years ago I was scraping Binance announcements, and believed you had to be logged in to get them as fast as possible.

I had to make my bot login when it gets logged out, but problem was that Binance had this weird Captcha puzzle to solve. I started by thinking about what I would need to solve it: the ability to input email/password and confirm as well as to click on the button and slide it.

For that I would need a controlled headless browser like Puppeteer on node.js, or Selenium on Python.

By popular request: Tree origin story.

Tackling:
-grinding from $1000 to 8 figs
-imposter syndrome
-algo trading
-market inefficiencies
-telling yourself something is impossible without even trying it
-origin of "Tree Of Alpha" name
-...

Might be a long one.

1/n 2/n I graduated from Engineering School in 2017, while Bitcoin kept going up throughout the year.

My major was IT, but very broad and mostly theory. By the time I graduated I knew a lot of concepts, but hadn't done that many projects at all.

1/5 Majority of CT influencers are keen on portraying the image of an always-winning trading god.

I believe it to be highly detrimental for their followers, who get a false idea of what trading really is.

Odds are your favorite influencer is silently down 70+% from aths. 2/ A few of my fails:
-Longed $DOGE on SpaceX merch nonsense, vastly overestimating how much of retail is left and underestimating how botted it is. Lost $200-300k.
-Longed $GAL on news yesterday, no hedges, dumped on by Burgers. Lost ~$100k.

Hurts? Yes. In the long run? Eh.

Coinbase's "largest-ever bug bounty"

How a flaw in the new Advanced Trading feature would have allowed a malicious user to sell BTC or any other coin without owning them, and how Coinbase's reaction speed on a Super Bowl Friday averted a possible crisis.

Bounty: $250,000 At first, I decided to poke around the new Advanced Trading platform to find out how orders are sent and what a successful one looks like.
I put an ETH-EUR order from the UI, and grabbed the request that was sent.
I noticed the API needs product, source and target account ids.

Now that they finally fixed it.

How Coindesk gave people the credentials to:
-read every draft before it's posted
-create fake drafts
-edit existing, published articles

All because of a very simple developer mistake.

🧵 To update content on its website, Coindesk uses an API endpoint which, under normal circumstances, serves a list of published articles.

Part of the problem, however, is that the endpoint itself is just a proxy to query the arcpublishing API and return the results.

A few questions that come up:
-Why is this a new account?

I might have been paranoid but did not want to risk anything by posting on a known account. This account was created 30 minutes before posting, for this specific purpose. *This is also a good reminder for software devs everywhere that changing front-end without stopping the actual payment processing on the server side does nothing.

If people can access such pages by slightly changing your client code, you have an issue.