BenAris Profile picture
Dec 12 12 tweets 2 min read
sanctions have run their course and Eu is out of powder now.

LT the effects of what is already in place is devastating. but what EU is looking for now is a coup de grace and it just doesnt have it

ofc crushing sanctions are needed now not LT as Ukrainians are dying every day
sanctions against Russia should have be approved today at the Council of Foreign Ministers of the EU countries, but it was not possible to agree on it, “because of the volume and complexity”, which the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell
the first serious sanctions were in package 5 (coal) but those were watered down in weeks to allow Greek ships to transport Rus coal outside EU
Rus just reported record exports of coal with prices 165% increase y/y
thats the prob: money

EU is not prepared to cost its members money nor cut itself off from inputs that make money. exemptions include
- fertilisers
- gas
- nuclear power/fuel
- piped oil
- diesel
etc
things included:
- iran drones
- 144 nobodies
- 4 russian banks that dont do anything
- Ren TV (who the hell watches Ren TV???)
poland et al are gunning for $30 price cap. aint gonna happen.
EU fgn mins also granted Ukr $2bn in weapons
but they are all air defn

emph in military support is ONLY on defn weapons not offensive weapons

strategy is clear. but none of this will end war earlier..

amazing Ukr cont to fight anyway... really heroic stuff
its a horrible fudge - which is what EU excels at

as a body it is totally ineffective in extreme situ like this. Its great when status quo rules. it is useless in crisis as cant act by the nature of the way its built
commentators already callng 9th package "modest"

Will there be a 10th package? I guess so as "we need to do smthg" but effective sanctions with any real effect ended with 8th & oil cap IMHO

and even that with $60 oil was not effective
end of real sanctions regime dooms Ukr to a long war

lack of offensive weapons doom Ukr to not being defeated but with little chance of victory either

its a horrible compromise. war time is not the time for compromises. but that is essense of what EU does: compromise
today IMHO showed that EU is more about making sure Ukr doesnt lose bc of its values

but also not making sure Ukr doesnt wins bc EU values its comfy life over its values

and i say this as a Brit that doesnt value anything anymore over anything & is run by bunch of elite monkeys
sorry... having a bit of a rant today as im so sick of all this bollox.

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More from @bneeditor

Feb 11
Sullivan Briefing:
- he made it crystal clear invasion is pure speculation. Only “able” not “will” invade. Here nothing changes
- based on US intel again that no one else seems to have
- I spent half day today talking to Kyiv & rpter in east: nothing changed. Everyone calm.

1/
On same day Uk defn sec Wallace met Shoigu in Moscow for “constructive” talk. Said don’t think rus will invade “but need pull back” troops.

Invasion while EU diplo in full swing makes no sense. German Scholz due in Kyiv & Moscow next week. Same day as invasion?

2/
Attack only makes sense after both US & EU diplo strands are exhausted. That’s weeks if not months away

Note Biden called Uk France German Italy pol & Romania today. Sullivan “west united” v rus

US lost initiative this week re Macron in Moscow. W/scare will regain it or try to
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