Wasted opportunity. In 2002 Putin still hoped for partnership with west & Nato.

If you remember after 9/11 he stood whole russian army down back to barracks in a gesture Condition Rice herself said was “extraordinary”

But these offers were constantly rebuffed & Russia line began to harden by 2004

Same on biz: Russia was looking for help to modernise its industry. Did deals to join EADS (airbus 2006) & buy Opel (cars 2009) but both were blocked as EU didn’t want russian competition.

Kremlin got increasingly frustrated until it finally gave up with Lavrov “new rules of game speech in 2021” that for me Marked the start of the inevitable slide into war I looked this up:

Vladimir Putin did make comments in 2002 suggesting that Ukraine’s potential NATO membership would not necessarily harm Russia’s relations with Kyiv. However, this was before NATO enlargement became a major geopolitical flashpoint.

1️⃣ Putin’s Statement on Ukraine and NATO (2002)
•During a press conference with NATO Secretary General George Robertson in November 2002, Putin was asked about the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO.
•He responded:
“Ukraine is a sovereign state and has the right to choose its own means to ensure its security. We do not see this as a tragedy.”
•At the time, Russia’s relationship with NATO was relatively cooperative, particularly after 9/11, when Moscow and Washington aligned on counterterrorism.

2️⃣ Timing in Relation to the ABM Treaty Withdrawal
•The US formally withdrew from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty on 13 June 2002, citing the need to develop missile defence systems.
•Putin’s statement on Ukraine and NATO came after this withdrawal, specifically during or just before the Prague NATO Summit (21–22 November 2002), where NATO invited seven countries from Eastern Europe to join the alliance.

3️⃣ Context
•In early 2000s, Putin still entertained a cooperative relationship with NATO and even hinted at the possibility of Russia joining NATO itself under certain conditions.
•Russia’s attitude hardened later, particularly after the 2004 NATO enlargement (Baltic states) and the 2008 Bucharest Summit, where NATO promised eventual membership to Ukraine and Georgia.

Xi Putin presser just finished.

"We have reached a consensus with Pres Putin & we will deepen our cooperation to build a stable partnership" Xi

some observations:

- China has just come out of the closet and gone up to throw its weight about on geopolitical stage. this is new - China & Russia have been driven together in a very definite way. this is not in the West's interests and actually should have been avoided at all costs. together with India they have 1/2 worlds GDP and population

sanctions have run their course and Eu is out of powder now.

LT the effects of what is already in place is devastating. but what EU is looking for now is a coup de grace and it just doesnt have it

ofc crushing sanctions are needed now not LT as Ukrainians are dying every day sanctions against Russia should have be approved today at the Council of Foreign Ministers of the EU countries, but it was not possible to agree on it, “because of the volume and complexity”, which the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell

Sullivan Briefing:
- he made it crystal clear invasion is pure speculation. Only “able” not “will” invade. Here nothing changes
- based on US intel again that no one else seems to have
- I spent half day today talking to Kyiv & rpter in east: nothing changed. Everyone calm.

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https://twitter.com/livesquawk/status/1492214208322322432

On same day Uk defn sec Wallace met Shoigu in Moscow for “constructive” talk. Said don’t think rus will invade “but need pull back” troops.

Invasion while EU diplo in full swing makes no sense. German Scholz due in Kyiv & Moscow next week. Same day as invasion?

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