Thread by @IgnatiusPost

A brief thread to explain why the bitter conflict over Nagorno Karabakh may be entering a dangerous new phase, based on a phone call I received tonight from Stepanakert from Ruben Vardanyan, the state minister for Artsakh, as #Armenians call the disputed territory.

Vardanyan confirmed reports that Azerbaijan had blocked the highway to Armenia, cutting off food, energy and medical care. He said the move will create a “humanitarian crisis” and was an attempt to “force everyone to leave” if they don’t submit to political control from Baku.

Vardanyan said Armenian residents of Karabakh were “prepared to fight” rather than submit to unilateral Azerbaijani demands over how the region should be managed. He said the Karabakh government had asked Russia to reopen the road, thus far without success.

That’s another sign of the fragility of Russia’s clout in bordering nations since its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has been trying to broker a Karabakh peace deal since Armenia lost control there in a bloody 2020 war with Azerbaijan, which claims Karabakh as its territory.

Vardanyan, a prominent Russian-Armenian businessman who once had close contacts to the Kremlin leadership, renounced his Russian citizenship last summer and moved to Stepanakert after he was named state minister by Arayik Harutyunyan, the president of Karabakh.

Some brief background: I know Vardanyan because I have been MC for the annual human-rights awards ceremonies of the #Aurora Humanitarian Initiative, which he cofounded with the late Vartan Gregorian, president of the Carnegie Corporation, and Noubar Afeyan, who cofounded Moderna.

Vardanyan’s decision to move to Stepanakert as state minister this fall illustrates the anguish he and many #Armenians feel over the shattering military defeat two years ago and the plight of the Armenian population there.

Final thought: Russia has wanted to be protector of stability in this region, and Armenian President Pashinyan called Putin today to ask that Russia reopen access. Pashinyan said in Yerevan today he “fears that Azerbaijan is really organizing and preparing genocide” in Karabakh.

But in this latest Karabakh dispute, as in so many previous ones, Putin--who so much wants to be seen as regional hegemon--has been unable or unwilling to staunch the bleeding.