A brief thread to explain why the bitter conflict over Nagorno Karabakh may be entering a dangerous new phase, based on a phone call I received tonight from Stepanakert from Ruben Vardanyan, the state minister for Artsakh, as #Armenians call the disputed territory. Vardanyan confirmed reports that Azerbaijan had blocked the highway to Armenia, cutting off food, energy and medical care. He said the move will create a “humanitarian crisis” and was an attempt to “force everyone to leave” if they don’t submit to political control from Baku.

From Adam LeBor's review today in @FT: "For Michael Dunne, protagonist of David Ignatius’s enthralling new thriller The Paladin, abandonment by the agency is just the start. His family life collapses, his intimate secrets are blasted across the internet and he is imprisoned. "Dunne is a sympathetic, engaging hero: brave, resourceful and in love with his ravishing Brazilian wife. His task is to infiltrate an Italian internet news organisation that is pushing the boundaries of deepfakes to new and disturbing limits. .

The bottom line on the “deal” with Turkey that @realDonaldTrump is so shamelessly congratulating himself about: Unless it clearly protects Kurds—as opposed to allowing new horrors—it won’t fly with Congress and anti-Turkey sanctions will return harder than ever.... Trump doesn’t seem to understand that our Kurdish allies are very popular with Congress, prompting a rare alliance between Lindsey Graham and Nancy Pelosi. Erdogan, meanwhile, is very unpopular. Trump seems to think his approach to crisis has succeeded. Another huge mistake....

A bad situation in Northeast Syria is about to get much worse. Sources tell me that US officials have just informed the Syrian Kurds that Turkey is likely to attack on air and ground in next 24 hours. The US will do nothing. Targets are Tal Abyad and Ras al Ayn.... ...Ironically Tal Abyad was the main supply route for ISIS in 2014-15 through an open border from Turkey. Turkey refused repeated requests from US to shut border. That's a big reason why US decided to partner with SDF, which took the town in the summer of 2015.