@ShaiDardashti It is already underway, but I’m not sure how many others have picked up on it:
@ShaiDardashti Below lays out not only the entire thesis, but a consolidation thought experiment exactly like the railroad analog above: esgian.com/articles/ma-ti…
@ShaiDardashti Essentially the cyclical upturn plus higher oil prices bakes in, let's call it a five-bagger. But if this consolidation thesis plays out, that's the angle to the fifty-bagger. Buffett has said it a million damn times: you need pricing power.
@ShaiDardashti $UNP Union Pacific stock hit a high of over $250 recently, yet had traded a little above $5 in 2000. So, call that a 22-year fifty-bagger. Buffett had remarked that he was actually a little late to railroads, whereas Bill Gates had pinpointed TSE: $CNR before him.
@CaptainRoyen Once amassing the inordinate amount of information, it invites commitment bias. After hundreds of hours of research, is the answer ever “this is a pass”? Also, it can result in seeking too narrow of a safety margin, if the opportunity isn’t glaring enough…
@CaptainRoyen In cases like Sears and JCPenney, where incredible research was done, asset value estimates were off by an order of magnitude. By contrast, it should simply be clear that there is upside in something, and time should be spent trying to disprove that. “Tell me what I’m missing”…
@CaptainRoyen If something is seriously right or wrong, it won’t be due to minutiae. In the case of $BTU, that is a lot of what bears had expressed. It tends to be a “missing the forest for the trees” setup—substance is what matters.
@Jupupa1@benbakhshi@ShitValueFund Yes, the cost of a new rig is basically $1 billion now. Entire $RIG market cap is $2.7 billion. Technical expertise cannot be matched by any new entrant.
@Jupupa1@benbakhshi@ShitValueFund The seriously intriguing thesis is if offshore rigs become the "railroads" of the next twenty years. Meaning how Bill Gates, 3G Capital, Buffett, and then Ackman captured the improving economics of that "toll bridge" industry; as it consolidated, rationalized, and modernized.
@j2004run@contrarian8888@hkuppy@JavierBlas The other crucial issue: demand comes on far faster than supply. Even assuming 2023 is tepid, what if we see a rapid rebound in demand in 2024? Obviously the market is a forward-looking, discounting mechanism, and that gets priced in quick. But where's the supply to meet it?
But supply—it requires exploration, actual prospecting for raw materials—permitting, hiring, the building of facilities, transportation, and so on. How long does that take?
@benbakhshi@HotRockCapital In reflecting on the past two decades or more of investing, a phenomenon—or bifurcation—that I see might be considered as (1) "backbone compounding" and (2) seeking optionality.
@benbakhshi@HotRockCapital Meaning that nearly everybody will not outperform—over very long periods—a classic Buffett-style "moat" business, especially with dividends reinvested.
@benbakhshi@HotRockCapital One close friend bought a bunch of stocks in the early '00s, but he didn't care about stocks, and literally forgot about his portfolio. Single best financial move he ever made! He woke up in the late 2010s and texted me, "dude, I've still got $MSFT, $BRK," etc.!
@chartin9s $FMG was a Leucadia blowout because the deal included a royalty. Further, Inmet Mining's (today $FM:TSE) Cobre Las Cruces deal was another low-profile homerun: fasken.com/en/solution/cl…
@chartin9s Amazingly, there is a target today that combines all of that into one structure: an iron ore and copper royalty play. It iterates those past deals...
@benbakhshi@AlanLevinson10 Recession may hit certain industries and locations far harder than others. For example, NYC suburbs got crushed in '08-'09, but less so Palo Alto. Today, raw materials industries may be much less impacted than tech, housing, etc.
@benbakhshi@AlanLevinson10 Also, I feel that—as abstract as this sounds—inflation distributes liquidity better through the economy than was the case during '11-'12 disinflation.
@benbakhshi@AlanLevinson10 For example, a decade ago it felt that there was no cash in Rust Belt locations, while QE was swelling financial centers with liquidity. This warped the economy...