Thread by @MrKRudd

Can you believe Murdoch's #CourierFail? They commissioned polling to confirm their campaign targeting Premier @AnnastaciaMP was working. And when the data did NOT show what they wanted, they went overboard to misrepresent it.

Here’s some analysis. 1/9

Let's start with their front page "SHOCK POLL: PALASZCZUK TRAILS NEWMAN"

It's based on the Queensland Premier's satisfaction rating of 40% compared with Newman's (supposed) rating of 41% when he was defeated in 2015.

But there are THREE big problems with this claim. 2/9

1) Cherry-picking data

When choosing a poll for Newman, the #CourierFail picked a Galaxy poll from 7-8 Jan 2015 and claimed it was "the eve" of his defeat on Jan 31. That's a lie.

Murdoch's actual election-eve poll showed Newman's popularity had crashed from 41 to 35. 3/9

This is how the #CourierFail reported on the poll that, in today's story, they suggest was evidence of Newman's unpopularity.

Now Palaszczuk records similar public approval, they spin it completely the other way. They have zero shame. 4/9

2) Margin of error

The margin of error is huge. Murdoch's pollster spoke to 1000 people in a state with almost 3.7 million potential voters. So, even using the most Newman-friendly poll, it's impossible to say that one trails the other.

Bottom line: a statistical dead heat. 5/9

And then the #CourierFail outright lied about the margin of error. They say it's 3%. But @YouGovAP, to its credit, publishes its methodology. The margin is actually 3.6% (20% higher than Murdoch admits)

Makes you wonder what other inconvenient numbers they round down. 6/9

3) Simplistic measure

As the #CourierFail used to admit, raw approval ratings are a less useful measure than net satisfaction (approval minus disapproval).

On that measure, Palaszcuk is almost level. But the comparison poll had Newman on -11. Head to head, it's no contest. 7/9

Moving to the inside pages, you'd think the headline "Six-year low puts LNP in running" would mean overall support for the Labor Government had fallen since the #CourierFail's last poll.

But check the fine print. Zero change. 8/9

I'll leave it there for now, but clearly Murdoch's goons are determined to keep abusing their monopoly. No wonder the @QLDLabor State Conference stood up to Murdoch by endorsing a #MurdochRoyalCommission in November.

Support a Royal Commission at murdochroyalcommission.org.au 9/9