Only one other time did I think @elonmusk was putting $TSLA SH at risk. That was Feb 2021 when TSLA invested $1.5B in #btc @ $32K per btc. I exited TSLA at $290 (split-adj) then re-entered in May/Jun at <$200 when it became clear TSLA wouldn’t buy more BTC as institutions exited.
2/ Back then, like now, Elon was convinced he was right and for a while he was. #btc soared to $60K and Elon tweeted non-stop about #Btc and #Doge “going to the moon.” But then Elon stopped tweeting as #btc crashed back to $32K, then soared again, and finally crashed for good.
3/ We almost exited $TSLA again in Apr 2022 at $340 when Elon bid $54.20 for $TWTR. I was convinced that Elon buying TWTR was bad for TSLA SHs, and was sure he’d be forced to buy TWTR by the DE court. But we didn’t pull the trigger, comforted that Elon, not TSLA, was buying TWTR.
4/ What will change? IMHO: 1) @elonmusk will come to his senses that attacking his woke left customer base is hurting the $TSLA brand and he will tone down his political views. 2) Elon will soon appoint a TWTR CEO and resume his duties as $TSLA CEO full time, easing SH tensions.
5/While a 50% drawdown on $TSLA our largest position is not good for performance, we believe little TSLA value has been impaired to date, and 2023-2024 catalysts ($7,500 IRA, $10B buyback, FSD beta, Cytruck, M-$30K) can unlock TSLA underlying value, which we still peg at $550/sh.
6/ Just to be clear, as long-term investors we’re not selling $TSLA at a depressed price of $170/share share vs an estimated $TSLA valuation of $550/share. We will let this play out. We expect Elon and the Board to do the right thing for $TSLA SH.
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Many have asked why WS $TSLA PTs haven’t dropped much in 2022 even as TSLA stock has crashed. The short answer: That’s really not how it works. Unless fundamentals (volume, earnings forecasts) change, PTs shouldn’t change much unless int rates change materially.
2/ WS analysts set price targets by going out 3-5 years and forecasting net income in 3-5 years and an appropriate multiple 3-5 years out. They then discount that future value back at an appropriate cost of equity to reflect TSLA's riskiness.
3/ My $550 TSLA PT is based on my 2026 EPS of $20.80, and applies a 40x P/E based on 20% L/T EPS growth and 2x PEG. This computes to a 2026 PT of $832. I discount that $832 back to 2022 at a 13.6% cost of equity (4% 10-yr TY, 6% equity risk premium, 1.6x beta = 13.6%).
I would expect $TSLA to recognize one-time Def Rev of ~$1B in 4Q when FSD V11 is released broadly in the US at year-end. Most analysts will back it out of EPS as one time. The ongoing FSD take rate could increase once EV buyers know they can use FSD immediately after purchase.
2/We know from the 9/30/2022 10-Q that $TSLA has a Total Def Rev balance of $2.8B and expects to recognize $1.1B of Def Rev over the next 12 mos. I assume the $1.1B est is the FSD Def Rev balance. We believe TSLA recognizes 50% of FSD Def Rev in Yr1 and the balance over ~6 years.
3/ We estimate $TSLA has sold 400,000 FSD packages at an average of $9K since FSD became available. Assuming 300K sold in the US and 40% unamortized def rev, that translates to $1.1B in potential def rev release.
Since Elon reversed course and agreed to complete the takeover of $TWTR on 10/4, $TSLA -28% vs NDX +1%. Since the deal closed on 10/28, TSLA TSLA -19% vs NDX +2%. Clearly, the TWTR overhang persists.
2/ In the meantime, $TWTR lost significant adv rev after Elon laid off 50% of TWTR employees, threatened to “thermonuclear name and shame” advertisers who left the TWTR platform, and launched a new $8/month verification protocol that backfired badly and was tabled until 11/29.
3/ $TSLA has not looked this cheap since March 2020 at Covid’s peak, selling at 32x 2023. 2023 EPS is up +45% YTD, but down -9% since TSLA posted weaker than exp 3Q volumes. $TSLA price and value have become disconnected.
I don’t see $TWTR going bankrupt, but there’s truth in @elonmusk comments that he sold $4B $TSLA shares to “save Twitter.” I estimate $TWTR currently has a -$3.4B/year hole to fill.
2/ Pre-Elon, TWTR Advertising revs were on track to do $4.4B for 2022. Subscription fees pre-Elon were $0.4B/year.
TWTR Costs and OpEx were running at $5.6B/year. Let’s assume Elon’s cost cuts bring that down to $4B/year.
Interest expense on $13B new debt is $1.2B/year.
3/ Global mDAUs are 260M. Let’s assume YouTube 3.2% subs rate would pay $8/month. That's $800M/year, or double today’s subscription fees.
Let’s assume Int Inc on old Cash and S/T investments ($6.1B) offsets old Debt ($6.6B), and D&A of $0.6B/yr offsets CapExp of $0.6B/yr
$TSLA has underperformed NDX -40% vs -15% (1.375x beta-adj decline should be -21%) since Elon’s $TWTR offer was announced 4/14/2022. During that time, Elon has sold three tranches of $TSLA stock totaling $20B, and the buyout itself got off to a rough start as advertisers fled.
2/ Many still deny the existence of a TWTR overhang on $TSLA stock despite clear evidence to the contrary. Maybe the confusion is that Elon’s purchase of TWTR hasn’t yet impacted TSLA demand or earnings, but it has hurt $TSLA stock as Elon sold TSLA shares to “save” TWTR.
3/ I’m not worried about $TWTR “breaking” because many good people have left TWTR. I’m worried that advertisers who pay 92% of bills are leaving because of adjacency concerns and platform chaos, exacerbated by the TWTR blue launch where Mario gave the middle finger for 2 hours.
TWTR impacts TSLA P/E and institutional sentiment toward TSLA because of the TWTR overhang: 1/ Elon sells more TSLA 2/ Elon distraction 3/ TSLA SOV shrinks
2/ $TSLA remains our #1 position since we believe the $TWTR overhang (which can’t be denied - see stock price) will ultimately lift once Elon brings in a world class CEO to run TWTR (in our catalysts pinned to my Twitter page).
As bulls, we’re all on the same side. Stop hating.
3/ I’ve been wrong on $TSLA stock since April ( $TSLA -40% vs NDX -15% even beta adj). In hindsight, I should have exited TSLA on 4/14 when it became clear Elon would have to buy TWTR - as I did in Feb 2021 when TSLA bought #btc and I knew Instit’l SHs would exit.