Thread by @Tom_deWaal

1/ If you haven’t been watching the situation in the so-called #Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Armenia and #Karabakh, you should now. The Armenian-Azerbaijani situation may be sliding slowly back into conflict. A short thread.

2/ Self-declared Azerbaijani environmentalists evidently sent there by the government in Baku (Azerbaijan’s version of “Little Green Men”?) have been blocking the Lachin road and therefore access in and out for local Armenians.
eurasianet.org/azerbaijanis-a…

3/ Azerbaijan has legitimate concerns about alleged new mines being laid around the corridor. But as this expert hints Azerbaijan's agenda is much bigger than this: “the establishment of Baku’s sovereign rights over the entire territory of Karabakh.”
jam-news.net/azerbaijan-is-…

4/ This year’s EU-brokered talks have made progress. Both sides have talked about signing a peace treaty. But there’s still no agreement on the future of the Karabakh Armenians. And Azerbaijan, now the dominant side, has shown it will use force to try and get concessions.

5/ EU officials I speak to are worried. They are trying to keep the talks going. As this statement shows:

https://twitter.com/AvetissianAn/status/1602338403445780481

6/ Trouble is, the main burden of interpreting/enforcing the Nov 2020 agreement that ended the 44-day war, still falls on Russia -- a job it’s not performed well, let's say... Its hands are tied in Ukraine, it has little trust in Arm. or Az., and zero trust internationally.

7/ In Karabakh itself the Russian PKF has no agreed mandate or rules of engagement. It's been somewhat depleted thanks to Ukraine. But it’s also regarded by NK Armenians as their main protector—thereby driving more distrust in Baku.

8/ Pres. Aliyev does, I believe, want a peace agreement, not a new war, but it looks as though he also wants concessions which the Armenian side says it cannot meet. A big risk that we get serious new outbreak of violence by default.