I have obtained some unofficial, almost complete final turnout figures in NV, and they are eye-opening.
Permit me a thread that unfurls just how bad the GOP losses were considering the party's large turnout relative to Dems. Candidates, indies and ticket-splitters mattered.
1/7
Permit me a thread that unfurls just how bad the GOP losses were considering the party's large turnout relative to Dems. Candidates, indies and ticket-splitters mattered.
1/7
1. Republican turnout (about 69 percent) far outdistanced Dem turnout (about 60 percent). It was a 10-point GOP edge in the Dem stronghold of Clark!
2. Mail ballots were about 50 percent of the total, and Dems won those 43-28, or about 75,000 votes. (Dems won by 20% in '20.)
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2. Mail ballots were about 50 percent of the total, and Dems won those 43-28, or about 75,000 votes. (Dems won by 20% in '20.)
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3. Most of the mail margin for the Dems was in Clark, where they won by 2-to-1 or nearly 80,000 votes -- thanks, Reid Machine/Culinary. Dems also won Washoe mail, by 10K votes.
4. GOP won Election Day by a stunning margin, 2-to-1, or 46K votes. But ED was only 21% of total.
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4. GOP won Election Day by a stunning margin, 2-to-1, or 46K votes. But ED was only 21% of total.
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5. The GOP also won in-person early voting by a substantial margin, about 50K votes, or 17%, just above its 2020 margin. But that was only about 27% of the total ballots cast.
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6. GOP overperformed in Clark but relatively low rural turnout (only 12% of total) and especially Washoe, which had 63% turnout compared to Clark's 51%, killed Adam Laxalt. Consider this about Washoe: Repubs won Washoe by 7K and Laxalt lost Washoe by 8K. Inconceivable!
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7. These numbers back up what we thought: Laxalt was a terrible candidate, rejected by his home-county
voters, and Gov-elect Joe Lombardo's team did what Laxalt did/could not: Appeal to indies and swing major party voters in some combination.
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voters, and Gov-elect Joe Lombardo's team did what Laxalt did/could not: Appeal to indies and swing major party voters in some combination.
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Ds held onto 3 House seats, made gains in Leg (as well as saving CCM, holding key statewides) by not just relying on turning out Ds but also D-leaning indies. Same old NV story: Ds play chess, Rs play checkers. If Lombardo didn't have a top-tier team, he would have lost, too.
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