Thread by @DefMon3

🇺🇦 Update🧵December 13th

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Yesterdays thread

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1602740574263672833

Shelling locations reported by the Ukrainian general staff today.

Weather
Continued warm weather, with temperature dropping below freezing early next week.

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1603006083789987843

Kupyansk
There is not a lot of info coming out of this area, but today the UA general staff stated the AFU repulsed an attack around Hryanykivka. I have adjusted the frontline a bit in this area based on satellite images, nothing major, just tweaks.

Svatove
Fighting continues around Novoselivs'ke, GSUA reported a repulsed RU attack in the area. Wargonzo reports fighting around Stel'makhivka.

If Ukraine can break through the RU defenses around Novoselivs'ke and Kuzemivka, it might open up the possibility to advance in the direction of Svatove and establish positions on high ground overlooking the 3 supply roads to Svatove.

Kreminna-Siversk
RU forces are trying to relieve pressure on Kreminna by attacking North and south of the town. Ukrainian general staff reported repulsed attacks around Chervonopopivka, Serebryansʹke and Bilohorivka

This is what the RU forces are trying to do around Siversk. If RU forces manages to advance in this direction, UA advances on Kreminna from the south west will become difficult.

Bakhmut
RuAF continues to attack in the Bakhmut area. I believe the AFU have situation is under control, and that they have resources to allocate if needed. I believe RU need to take Soledar to be able to capture Bakhmut, I don't think UA will give 1 meter of land for free here.

The AFU repulsed attacks around Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut and Kurdyumivka

I think we need to start worrying if RuAF capture Soledar and advance close to Chasiv Yar. I think the AFU will do whatever they can to prevent this.

If RuAF would manage to capture Bakhmut, i think it would force an AFU retreat from Sivers'k at some point.

This would over time possibly create trouble for the offensive north of the SD river. This would not happen over night and I think it's hard to predict possible RU combat capabilities in the long term. Consider this speculative without the consideration of RU combat capabilities.

Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Nevel's'ke, Mar'inka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka.

The Russians are improving their defensive lines in the Belgorod region. They are now connecting the dragons teeth with steel wire and adding concertina wire. Source: t.me/operativnoZSU/…

I would not be so quick to disregard these lines. These lines could become a huge problem, especially if the RU forces keep building and improving them. Keep in mind, the frontline is not moving very fast without these defensive lines being there.

The Zaporizhzhia frontline remains unchanged.