They live with friends and relatives who help them get by.
That’s another gender element to this puzzle!
Eberstadt says US welfare is too generous
But how come single mothers’s LFP is so high?
Many are poor, get benefits, struggle to juggle care, yet continue to work at high rates.
Does it reflect benefit stinginess or what?
“Having a criminal record is a key missing piece in explaining why work rates and LFPRs have collapsed much more dramatically in America than other affluent Western societies”
- Eberstadt
[NB. his chapter on criminality provides zero data on other countries]
4 reasons to think incarcerations are to blame for blame joblessness:
1) The US has an unusually large population of ex/current felons (16m in 2004)
2) States with more felons have higher male joblessness
3) The probability of incarceration has massively increased
[Coinciding with rising male joblessness]
4a) Men with one or more incarceration are highly likely to be out of the labour force.
4b) Men with one or more incarceration are highly likely to be out of the labour force.
This holds for every ethnicity and educational background.
If rising convictions are a major cause of jobless, unmarried men,
I would be curious to know how this strong push for “law and order” relates to the legacy of slavery and Jim Crow.
Trade shocks reduce young adult males’ employment and earnings.
This leads to more unwed mothers and children in poor single parent families.
“The Impact of Economic Conditions on Participation in Disability Programs” shows that when labour demand is high, participation in disability programs falls.
This is consistent with an emphasis on labour demand.
Institutions matter.
Germany has seen a huge rise in robots but not job losses
Manufacturing is still very unionised, blue-collar wages are usually determined collectively with strong involvement of work councils.
Economists keep questioning Generative AI's productivity - will it displace skilled labour?
My question is different: is online entertainment (making sports bets, listening to Rogan or playing Call of Duty) more engaging than hanging out with friends?
In the 20th century, we marshalled technology to eliminate one of the major barriers to women's advancement and autonomy.
But one world region struggles to make that transition.
Between 1950 and 2020, China reduced female teenage fertility rates from 84 to 12 births per 1000 females aged 15–19 annually and India from 144 to 17 per 1000.
But this same reduction has not been achieved in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Every world region has achieved a major decline in teenage pregnancies.