1- #ConnectingTheDots The Fed meeting yesterday was hawkish, both the statement and Powell's press conference
The movement of FOMC members' dots - their view on high rates need to go - illustrates this well
The movement of FOMC members' dots - their view on high rates need to go - illustrates this well
2- This was contrary to my expectations, as "leaks" suggested ambiguity that the market would have read dovish
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1602700934550806528
3- As you know, my view is that of a slowing economy, and in fact a "hard landing", as the US consumer runs out of savings
A problematic context given the global debt load
A problematic context given the global debt load
4- Fed policy is the most important ingredient to the evolution of global markets
The Fed made clear that it will continue with its tight monetary policy as the economy turns
Credit events and defaults are the highly likely consequence
The Fed made clear that it will continue with its tight monetary policy as the economy turns
Credit events and defaults are the highly likely consequence
5- The now clear Fed policy likely supersedes both seasonality and TGA/liquidity dynamics I outlined before
I have therefore returned to my negative stance on risk assets, with shorts back on in European Equities (DAX) and Materials (SXPP)
I have therefore returned to my negative stance on risk assets, with shorts back on in European Equities (DAX) and Materials (SXPP)
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