Kevin Fatkin Profile picture
Dec 15 8 tweets 6 min read
Here is my morning run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOps Vol.land. Vanna is the biggest $SPX driver. Notice how the 4000 magnet magnet remains with repellents at 3900/4100. If 3900 gives out, 3800 could become a magnet!
Now let's do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Vanna magnet @ $400. Repel @ $390. Lots of magnets/accelerants below $390 if it gives out. 5-day delta correlations heavily favor downside & volatility.
$SPY Dark Pools help paint the the picture further. Mild amount of sig prints (bearish) with some support below. Still bearish sentiment from block trades. If support is broken or we open below, could be come resistance.
Market net flow was thrown off by calls on a corporate bonds ETF so will not use it this morning until open. Flow map heavily skewed towards puts. Dealer Market Diary starting to show slightly less negative deltas to unroll.
Lastly, we need to make sure we keep all the upcoming macro number releases in mind as they are the big fundamental drivers of the market. We had jobless claims this morning, with PMI tomorrow. The big one is OPEX tomorrow as well!
Ultimately, the $SPX 4000 / $SPY 400 magnet remains but new bearish structure is emerging. The repellents at 3900/390 will play a part, however if we get a nice break below, they will act as significant accelerants with new magnets below! ($384 $SPY & 3800 $SPX)
If you are interested in viewing & using this data plus more with hundreds of other assets, use coupon code FattyTrades for discounts with #volland, @Tradytics & @elitetraderfund funded futures accounts!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Kevin Fatkin

Kevin Fatkin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Fatty_Trades

Dec 16
With @Tradytics Dealers Market Diary (DMD) on many minds for tomorrows OPEX event, lets talk about how it played out on 11/18/22 $ES (works for $SPY / $SPX / $NQ / $QQQ / $YM / $DIA / $IWM / $RTY as well) to get an idea of how we can execute tomorrow! Image
The London session printed its low @ 3943.50. The NY open created two notable bearish OB's and consumed liquidity from London bull move on its way down (note - referencing 3m chart). Image
The DMD looked similar to the way it looks for 12/16. It wasn't as heavily skewed with negative deltas but was still notable, so we were expecting a bullish reversal EoD. The question is when & where? Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 14
Here is my morning run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOps #volland. The Vanna magnet at $SPX 4000 remains along with the repellents at 4100. Supportive Gamma at 4000 as well. If 4100 were to break from an event, massive acceleration would occur to the upside. See screen shots. ImageImage
Now let's do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Vanna magnet @ $400. Repel @ $390. Neg vanna/gamma @ $404/405 could assist move higher IF broken. The 3-day delta structure indicates higher likelihood of downside. ImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Dec 13
Hey all - I wasn't able to get my morning update out and now that CPI has happened, the data will be skewed anyway and likely be restructured not long after open. Keep in mind we have significant macro events all week and a major OPEX on Friday (will talk about on Friday).
I'll be back with an update tomorrow morning, but as of now just know $SPX opening above 4100 would be significant accelerant from both Vanna and Gamma, otherwise it would be resistant. We also have many $SPY dark pool prints around $398.90.
I'm always careful on CPI days when trading, I tend to favor a continuation higher. However, with a strong rejection @ $ES 4180 off a major bearish OB created 9/12/22, I'll be careful when we approach again. A break would be significant.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 12
Here is my morning run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOps #volland. The magnet at $SPX 4000 has grown by approx $20bil. Repellent at 3850 remain, accelerate if broken. See attached. Positive gamma shows ceiling at 4000 as well. ImageImage
Now let's do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Vanna magnet @ $400. Repel @ $390. Neg gamma @ $395/$397 could assist move to $400 if broken. The 3-day delta forecast shows we could go either way (expected). ImageImageImage
Read 10 tweets
Dec 9
Here is a run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOps #volland. The magnet at 4000 renaubs. Accelerant's to the downside if broken, but will initially be supportive (see attached). Not much change from yesterday.
Now let's do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Structure still indicates pinning, however if we break below 390, accelerants could be significant, but unlikely. The 400 Vanna magnet remains.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 8
Today I want to do a run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOps #volland. We see a small, diminishing magnet at 4000. Accellerants to the downside if broken, but will initially be supportive (see attached). ImageImage
Now lets do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Structure indicates pinning, however if we break below 392, accelerants could be significant. ImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(