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Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Dec 16

From what I hear about Bakhmut, the situation is stabilizing. There are still groups of Russians that penetrated the Ukrainian lines, but Ukraine is slowly flushing them out. It is difficult work, because we're talking about fighting in residential areas with many places to hide.

The south of Bakhmut in Optyne is difficult but remains stable. They are running out of pieces of Opytne to defend, the town is getting obliterated. But Ukraine holds on, everyone knows the importance of the position. It has to be held, so they hold it.

The areas further south, from what I understand Russia is having issues crossing the highways and canals. There are wide open fields on the other side, I am not sure their attack has progressed much. The Russian descriptions point toward little progress.

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Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Dec 14

The situation in Bakhmut is deteriorating for Ukraine. Russia is attacking basically everywhere at the same time, and Ukraine is struggling to keep ground. They launch counter attacks, and occasionally kick Russia back out of certain areas, but the Russian attacks keep coming.

Opytne and Klishchiivka are both incredibly important for Ukraine to hold, and at the moment they do hold them, but the situation is tough. These areas are *MUCH* more important than the areas on the eastern part of the city where Russia has some success in the residential area.

Ukraine will likely have to retreat across the river, which is a pity. I find it unlikely that Russia will be able to continue this sort of press across the river, I think the battle will change tempo at that point. For now, Ukriane is trying to avoid that scenario.

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Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Dec 12

It is easy to dramatize what will happen to the Russian economy, saying it will collapse. And it will, but not in a spectacular way. It will take many years to fall apart, as it slowly shrinks. It might have some good years mixed in, but it will steadily shrink. The path is set.

It is also somewhat amusing in the short term, because the economy is being held afloat right now by the fact that so many people left the country. Many millions. So even though the economy has shrunk dramatically, unemployment is manageable.

But, the fact that so many people have left has created enormous damage to the economy that will compound annually for many years/decades.

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Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Dec 12

If you talk to Ukrainians or Russians, the ones who actually know what they are talking about, they will tell you about the differences in the battle today in Bakhmut versus the battle in Popasna. The differences are: airpower and artillery. Namely, Russia has *much* less of both

Russia‘s firepower in Bakhmut is probably 10 times more than what Ukraine has. They vastly outgun Ukraine. But they probably have 10 times less now than in Popasna. And the airpower is incomparable.

In Popasna, Russia dropped incredible amounts of ordinance. They destroyed everything. Ukraine took *massive* casualties. Russia is currently incapable of this type of bombardment in Bakhmut. And I doubt they will ever have this capability again.

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Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Dec 11

From the information I have, the front line in Bakhmut is stabilizing. It is true, Ukraine rotated troops out. The new troops were unable (and likely not expected) to hold the positions held by the departing troops. As a result, the lines shifted, especially east and southeast.

But now, it seems the lines are stabilizing. The garbage dump is a key point of fighting, and I have to be clear about this: the landfill is controlled by Russia and being actively reinforced (2), the facility nearby, or at least the area near there, is contested (3).

The attack down Patrica Lumumby Street has met its resistance (1). I don’t know *exactly* where. Somewhere between the drywall and ceramic factories. I think.

Read 8 tweets

Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Dec 9

This video completely blows my mind. This has to be recent, right? Like, it has to be? If this is recent, dear lord have the Russians had their asses kicked. This video is practically in the town of Pisky.

Like, this video basically shows Russia has been pushed back like 3-4km.

Holy shit, it is recent. This fire only appeared on the december 4th satellite image.

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