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Bill Connelly Profile picture
@ESPN_BillC
Dec 15, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
I wrote about the stats and trends I found from this World Cup, in which more teams dominated possession, fewer teams won games doing so, the ball remained in the wide areas, and teams continued to trade shot quantity for shot quality.

espn.com/soccer/fifa-wo…
This was basically the companion piece to one of my faves -- my 1966-2018 trends piece I wrote (what feels like 17 years ago) in Nov. We've definitely seen the continuation of developments from 2014-18 (though suddenly no one's scoring from set pieces).

At the club level, where all the richest clubs play possession ball, the correlation between wins and poss% remains strong. (Because of the money, among other things.)

At the country level? That correlation is getting smaller at every World Cup. Image
(And yes, I would find it immensely amusing if the world kinda solved possession ball just as the #USMNT committed itself entirely to it.)

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More from @ESPN_BillC

Bill Connelly Profile picture
Jan 4, 2023
UPDATED SP+ RANKINGS

* Title game projection: Georgia 34.9, TCU 24.0
* We have a fresh, new No. 2! (It's Bama. Of course.)
* Biggest bowl winners: SEC West, Texas Tech
* Biggest bowl losers: Purdue, Sun Belt
* South Carolina: special teams national champ

espn.com/college-footba…
It's a lot more fun when it's not bluebloods getting the biggest Weird Bump in the ratings, but yes, Texas ends the year in the top 10, OU in the top 20.

For a hint as to why, look at second-order wins. SP+ saw Texas as a 10-win team, OU 8 wins.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
The fun thing about postgame win expectancy and second-order wins is, it's like 70% randomness, 30% coaching/execution. So UT/OU underachieving by 4.2 combined wins could be a sign of impending breakthrough glory ... or a sign they're just gonna keep right on underachieving.
Read 4 tweets
Bill Connelly Profile picture
Jul 21, 2021
Most players lost to the transfer portal over the last year (by my count):

37: Tennessee
27: Kansas
25: Memphis
23: TCU, WKU, Wazzu
22: Auburn, Miss St, WVU
21: Buff, Mich, Mich St, UMass, UNC, Vandy
Avg players lost to the portal by conference:

SEC 16.9 per team
Big 12: 16.1
AAC 13.2
Big Ten 13.1
ACC 12.9
Pac-12 12.3
MAC 11.9
C-USA 11.4
Sun Belt 10.3
MWC 9.5

Tenn driving SEC avgs up, but 6 of 14 SEC teams are at 19+.
Avg. players lost to the portal by coach year (1 = first-year, etc.)

1: 15.9
2-3: 14.5
4-5: 11.2
6-7: 10.4
8+: 9.7

Definitely not surprising, but impressively linear there.
Read 4 tweets
Bill Connelly Profile picture
Jun 8, 2021
Random question for you on a sunny Tuesday morning:

In your lifetime of rooting for [insert your team here], what opposing receiver scared you the most?
To be honest, I should have added a "...besides Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss" disclaimer.

Evans obviously had a strong two years, but the fact that he torched who he torched provided all sorts of extra value.

Read 21 tweets
Bill Connelly Profile picture
Jun 7, 2021
Other than the dreadful error that led to a goal, the panic against the press, the constantly odd spacing and the nearly 100% bad touches in the attacking third, it’s not going THAT bad for the USMNT...
...and the hilariously bad marking on set pieces...
ROPE-A-DOPE, BABY
Read 7 tweets
Bill Connelly Profile picture
Apr 19, 2020
So yeah, it's April 19. 25 years ago, Tim McVeigh blew up the building across from my dad's office.

I posted a thread 5 years ago, but it was pre-threading and pre-280 characters, so I'll reproduce/update it. It's a long-threads kind of weekend, I guess.

My dad was a political science professor at SW Okla St when I was growing up. He burned out on dumb university politics, took a sabbatical, started doing policy work in OKC. I never had any idea where he worked in OKC. I just knew he got home later and was less miserable.
On 4/19/95, I'm taking an Algebra II test, and we see people gathering in the next classroom, one with a TV on one of those rolling stands. Someone whispers something about "they blew up a building downtown." I'm thinking, why would anyone blow up a building in Weatherford?
Read 13 tweets

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