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Troy Teslike

@TroyTeslike

Mar 22

1/ Giga Berlin

Since we are so close to the delivery ceremony tomorrow, here is a summary of Giga Berlin.

The current building has one production line with 500,000 units per year of production capacity. In terms of the building size, this is Tesla's smallest car factory.

2/

The footprint of the Giga Berlin building is
• 77% the size of the Fremont Factory,
• 61% of Giga Texas, and
• 60% of Giga Shanghai

Giga Berlin will eventually produce its own 4680 cells & battery packs but for now, they are getting complete 2170 packs from Giga Shanghai

3/

Giga Shanghai will supply up to 5,000 battery packs per week. Giga Berlin will start production with 1 shift and they will add the second and third shifts in the coming months. The target is to reach 5,000/week Model Y production by the end of this year.

Read 5 tweets

Troy Teslike

@TroyTeslike

Mar 15

https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1503557626822635529

This is interesting. Tesla Autopilot hardware version 4 might be coming soon. When it's released, I would expect all Tesla vehicle production worldwide to switch to HW4 around the same time once they use up existing stock.

https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1503557626822635529

https://twitter.com/zxk9523/status/1479501763065483265

There are some clues here:

https://twitter.com/zxk9523/status/1479501763065483265

Here is some information about Tesla Autopilot hardware versions so far.

Read 6 tweets

Troy Teslike

@TroyTeslike

Feb 13

1/ Giga Berlin thread:

There is a lot of misinformation about Giga Berlin's production capacity. It's not 2M/year or 1.5M/year or 1M/year. Giga Berlin has just a single production line with 500K/year capacity and there is neither any plan nor any space to add a second line.

2/

This line is similar to the Model Y line in Shanghai which produced 38,381 Model Y in Dec 2021 (460,572/year). That was the 12th month of Model Y production in Shanghai.

The Shanghai Model Y line could potentially reach 45K/month = 540K/year. Berlin Model Y should be similar

3/

Of course, it's possible that Berlin could exceed 540K/year and even reach 600K/year one day but that's not guaranteed to happen.

You might say, yes but they will add more buildings to Giga Berlin. Yes they could but the groundworks for the current one started on 17 Feb 2020

Read 12 tweets

Troy Teslike

@TroyTeslike

Jan 29

Giga Berlin:

1/
The current building at Giga Berlin has just one production line and there is neither space nor any plan to add another line to this building. The line was modeled after Model Y line in Shanghai which produced 38,381 in Dec with 3 shifts. That's 460,572/year.

2/

• On the Alex Springer show, Elon said Giga Berlin's capacity is 500,000/year.

• At Giga Fest, Elon said 10,000/week (500K/year)

• A slide at Giga Fest also showed 500,000/year

3/

The rumors about 2 million units per year originated from this image from Tesla's environmental impact report. It shows eventually 4 buildings. So, people assumed if it's 500K per building, capacity must be 2 million. The problem is, those other buildings don't exist yet.

Read 4 tweets

Troy Teslike

@TroyTeslike

Jul 3, 2020

Tesla Q3 2020 Updates:

1/

• 7-9 July: Final registration numbers for Europe will be released
• 8-12 July: China production & delivery numbers will be released. I use these in my calculations
• 13-15 July: I'll post my first estimate for Q3 2020. It should be between 130-150K

2/

Things to watch out for in Q3 2020:

• Made-in-China Model 3 Long Range has a backlog, most likely over 10K

• Tesla was using the Model 3 GA4 general assembly line for Model Y production. The new Model Y GA5 at Fremont is expected to go online soon.

3/

• I've heard rumors that Tesla produced two Model Y test units in China. There is a chance, Model Y prod could start in Oct or Nov.
• Tesla will likely have excess Model Y production capacity at Fremont in Q4. They could release Model Y SR+ in NA or export Model Y to EU

Read 7 tweets

Troy Teslike

@TroyTeslike

Jun 1, 2020

@TSLAFanMtl

@TSLAFanMtl 1/

Here is what I'm calculating based on data from my survey:

Q1 production: 2800 units (2,286 delivered in March, 514 delivered in April)

Q2 production so far: 1554 units
Current production rate: 900 units/week. The highest in Q1 was 1285/week. Currently, Tesla uses GA4 aka

@TSLAFanMtl

@TSLAFanMtl 2/
the tent for Model Y. GA4 was built for Model 3 but they have been using it for Model Y since mid-March because the Model Y production line is not ready yet. At 100% capacity, GA4 can produce 2205 units per week. I expect production to increase from 900 to 2205 over time.

@TSLAFanMtl

@TSLAFanMtl 3/
The dedicated Model Y assembly line is not online yet. The plan was that it would go online in early July. I don't know the latest on this.

As a side note, I'm calculating 18,122 Model Y backlog. This is just for North America. These are Model Y buyers who have placed an

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