From what I hear about Bakhmut, the situation is stabilizing. There are still groups of Russians that penetrated the Ukrainian lines, but Ukraine is slowly flushing them out. It is difficult work, because we're talking about fighting in residential areas with many places to hide.
The south of Bakhmut in Optyne is difficult but remains stable. They are running out of pieces of Opytne to defend, the town is getting obliterated. But Ukraine holds on, everyone knows the importance of the position. It has to be held, so they hold it.
The areas further south, from what I understand Russia is having issues crossing the highways and canals. There are wide open fields on the other side, I am not sure their attack has progressed much. The Russian descriptions point toward little progress.
North of Bakhmut, Russians have some success in Soledar and Yakovlivka. In Soledar, they are advancing along the northern part of the town, they moved around the quarry and into a residential area north of the quarry.
In Yakovlivka, they secured the western outskirts of the town about four days ago, and now they are clearing through the middle of the town. I'm not sure exactly how much they control, at least half the town at this point. The rest is a gray area most likely.
Near Avdiivka, Russia has some success moving toward Nevelske. They actually retook two positions they had taken about 2 months ago only have had lost them in a Ukrainian counter attack. Russia threw a ton more people toward Nevelske, but their primary assault failed today.
In what I call "The Corner", Russia has some success in the southern part of Marinka. They are attacking south toward Pobjeda. There is all sorts of mutual assaults around Novomykhailivka. A Russian assault failed on Vuhledar, and Ukraine is pressing Pavlivka.
Now to go back up north just to totally screw up the order of this thread. Russia is trying to push Ukraine back to the river around Svatove, and they appear to have some successes in some areas.
When I say the river, I mean the Zherebets River, which is roughly here. Note that Karmazynivka was once held by Ukraine.
Around Kreminna, the Ukrainians claim Ukraine has pushed within 1.5km of Dibrova. A few weeks ago Russians said their main defensive line is around 2km south of the town. It is possible Ukraine is saying they are 1.5km west of Dibrova.
Regardless, there are mutual attacks around Chernopopivka and Zhytlivka, and Ukraine has forces operating all throughout the forested areas around Kreminna. Both north and south.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Dec 15
Russia showed this building shelled by Ukraine.
Let’s just zoom out a bit…
Little bit more…
Read 5 tweets
Dec 14
The situation in Bakhmut is deteriorating for Ukraine. Russia is attacking basically everywhere at the same time, and Ukraine is struggling to keep ground. They launch counter attacks, and occasionally kick Russia back out of certain areas, but the Russian attacks keep coming.
Opytne and Klishchiivka are both incredibly important for Ukraine to hold, and at the moment they do hold them, but the situation is tough. These areas are *MUCH* more important than the areas on the eastern part of the city where Russia has some success in the residential area.
Ukraine will likely have to retreat across the river, which is a pity. I find it unlikely that Russia will be able to continue this sort of press across the river, I think the battle will change tempo at that point. For now, Ukriane is trying to avoid that scenario.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 12
It is easy to dramatize what will happen to the Russian economy, saying it will collapse. And it will, but not in a spectacular way. It will take many years to fall apart, as it slowly shrinks. It might have some good years mixed in, but it will steadily shrink. The path is set.
It is also somewhat amusing in the short term, because the economy is being held afloat right now by the fact that so many people left the country. Many millions. So even though the economy has shrunk dramatically, unemployment is manageable.
But, the fact that so many people have left has created enormous damage to the economy that will compound annually for many years/decades.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 12
If you talk to Ukrainians or Russians, the ones who actually know what they are talking about, they will tell you about the differences in the battle today in Bakhmut versus the battle in Popasna. The differences are: airpower and artillery. Namely, Russia has *much* less of both
Russia‘s firepower in Bakhmut is probably 10 times more than what Ukraine has. They vastly outgun Ukraine. But they probably have 10 times less now than in Popasna. And the airpower is incomparable.
In Popasna, Russia dropped incredible amounts of ordinance. They destroyed everything. Ukraine took *massive* casualties. Russia is currently incapable of this type of bombardment in Bakhmut. And I doubt they will ever have this capability again.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 11
From the information I have, the front line in Bakhmut is stabilizing. It is true, Ukraine rotated troops out. The new troops were unable (and likely not expected) to hold the positions held by the departing troops. As a result, the lines shifted, especially east and southeast.
But now, it seems the lines are stabilizing. The garbage dump is a key point of fighting, and I have to be clear about this: the landfill is controlled by Russia and being actively reinforced (2), the facility nearby, or at least the area near there, is contested (3).
The attack down Patrica Lumumby Street has met its resistance (1). I don’t know *exactly* where. Somewhere between the drywall and ceramic factories. I think.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 9
This video completely blows my mind. This has to be recent, right? Like, it has to be? If this is recent, dear lord have the Russians had their asses kicked. This video is practically in the town of Pisky.
Like, this video basically shows Russia has been pushed back like 3-4km.
Holy shit, it is recent. This fire only appeared on the december 4th satellite image.
Read 4 tweets

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