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Shashank Joshi Profile picture
@shashj
Dec 16, 2022 • 16 tweets • 13 min read • Read on X
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This time last year I was wondering whether Putin would torpedo Christmas. He didn't. But our first cover of 2022 was my story on NATO-Russia talks and Putin's demands. We warned he might go to war if he felt the alternative was a war on worse terms later. economist.com/briefing/2022/…
Our next Russia cover came on Jan 29. Putin "is...increasingly isolated and may be ill-informed on some things, such as the economic impacts," we wrote. "He may have lost sight of the big picture—or he may think he sees a bigger picture than anyone else." economist.com/briefing/2022/…
Then came "Putin's botched job" on Feb 17th. "In recent conversations with The Economist businesspeople, diplomats, economists and government officials in Moscow revealed that they could barely fathom the ruinous consequences a war would bring to Russia" economist.com/briefing/2022/…
At dawn on Feb 24th, Thursday, the day @TheEconomist is printed, we ripped up our planned cover story & wrote a new one in hours. "Wars in Europe rarely start on a Wednesday," Russia's envoy to the EU had said on Feb 16th. And indeed it wasn't a Wednesday. economist.com/briefing/2022/…
The most compelling cover of the year came on March 5th. Zelensky "has made an astonishingly rapid transformation from hapless political outsider to wartime hero", we wrote. In the same piece I wrongly anticipated that Kyiv would likely be encircled. economist.com/briefing/2022/…
On March 12th we warned of the Stalinisation of Russia under Putin's war. "In political and social terms it may be necessary to go back almost a century to find a parallel: to 1929, when Stalin liquidated the entrepreneurial class to consolidate his power" economist.com/leaders/2022/0…
In that March 5th issue we also reflected on the oft-made but imperfect comparisons to the Soviet-Finnish Winter war of 1939-40. "Stalin’s army was far larger than Mr Putin’s & it did not have to reckon with urban warfare. It also enjoyed support at home." economist.com/briefing/2022/…
Our April 1st cover was an interview with Zelensky. He divided NATO members into five camps, including those who wanted a long war "at the cost of Ukrainian lives", those who wanted to go back to trading with Russia & those who “recognise Nazism in Russia”
economist.com/briefing/2022/…
Our Apr 30 cover was my story on the root causes of Russian military failure: bad plan, bad army or both? I quoted an internal assessment by a European country: "The reputation of the Russian military has been battered & will take a generation to recover" economist.com/briefing/how-d…
On June 2nd I looked at the nuclear aspects of the conflict. “The value of nuclear weapons as a tool of statecraft hinges on the outcome of this war”—@mbudjeryn (author of a new book on the Soviet nukes left in Ukraine in 1991: press.jhu.edu/books/title/12…) economist.com/briefing/2022/…
By late June Russia's Donbas offensive had run out of steam and it was apparent this would be a long war. At that time Western officials were worried Ukraine would be profligate with HIMARS. In fact Ukraine quickly proved adept at the "deep battle".
economist.com/briefing/2022/…
On September 15th our cover reflected Ukraine's stunning gains in Kharkiv. "It shows that Ukraine is capable of fast, complex and daring attacks," wrote @olliecarroll (from Izyum) & I, "that Russia can be dislodged; and that Ukraine can therefore win".
economist.com/europe/2022/09…
In November our cover story, led by @AntonLaGuardia, looked at thinking around endgames. "In private, Western and Ukrainian officials are starting to ponder what a stable outcome might look like...A much-discussed template is Israel." economist.com/briefing/2022/…
And that brings us to this week's cover: a survey of how the war looks through the eyes of Zelensky and his top generals, based on interviews with the president, his commander-in-chief and the commander of ground forces. economist.com/ukraines-fatef…
Thanks to brilliant co-writers @ArkadyOstrovsky, @olliecarroll & @AntonLaGuardia. Others (@timjudah1, @p_zalewski, @Wendell23, @mattsteinglass, @richardjensor) who did great reporting from Ukraine. And peerless editors (notably @EWRCarr, @chrislockwd, @Eaterofsun, @robertguest1).
That list is a partial one. But, finally, I want to say thank you to @MartaRodionova, who helped @olliecarroll & others produce much of our coverage in Ukraine. 🙏🏽

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More from @shashj

Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Jan 29
The Economist's briefing this week. "ICE and Border Patrol have come to resemble militias that answer to the president and operate with seeming impunity. The killings in Minneapolis reveal how quickly this evolution has occurred" economist.com/briefing/2026/…
"The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in July, included a whopping $170bn for immigration enforcement—more than most countries spend on their armed forces. ICE has more than doubled in size over the past year, hiring 12,000 new deportation officers." economist.com/briefing/2026/…
'Several ICE recruitment posts on social media include dog-whistles such as “Which way, American man?” (an allusion to a white supremacist book) and “Destroy the flood” (a slogan from a video game about invasive parasitic aliens).' economist.com/briefing/2026/…
Read 6 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Dec 18, 2025
"Retired Army Lt. Gen. @GenFlynn, who was once President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, was hired as a consultant for the Bosnian Serb republic eight years after he admitted to secretly working to benefit the Turkish government." washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/…
Essentially, corruption is being legalised (for some). Flynn 'joins Rod Blagojevich, the former Democratic governor of Illinois who went to prison on corruption charges, as the second person pardoned by Trump to work on behalf of the Bosnian Serb republic' washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/…
"The Trump administration also wiped away Biden-era sanctions levied in 2023 against Dodik’s children and several business entities that officials said he used to siphon public funds “and enrich himself and his family at the expense of [his] citizens and functional governance in the country.”...
So far this term, Trump has pardoned his most prominent allies involved in the effort to overturn the 2020 election results, the founder of an online drug market, former TV stars found guilty of fraud and tax evasion, and other people who have paid large sums of money to hire people who they believe have the president’s ear."
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Dec 16, 2025
1/ The UK Parliament's intelligence & security committee (ISC) has published its first full annual report in two years, covering the administration and finance of the UK intelligence community. A few highlights below.
isc.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/upl…Image
2/ As in previous reports, the committee notes that more & more departments are doing security & intel work compared to the past, and that the ISC doesn't have sight of these. "The impact of these matters has become more serious since then," it says. isc.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/upl…Image
3/ ISC: "China’s state intelligence apparatus – almost certainly the largest in the world – targets the UK and its interests prolifically and aggressively, presenting a challenge for our Agencies to cover" isc.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/upl…
Read 25 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Dec 15, 2025
1/ The first of two speeches by UK military / intelligence leaders today. The later one by Rich Knighton, the new chief of defence staff. This one by Blaise Metreweli, the chief of MI6. "We are now operating in a space between peace and war." gov.uk/government/spe…
2/ Metreweli says speech is not a "global threat tour". Says China "a central part of the global transformation taking place this century" and "essential that we, as MI6, continue to inform the govt's understanding of China’s rise and the implications for UK national security." Image
3/ Metreweli says "Russia is testing us in the grey zone with tactics that are just below the threshold of war" and includes "Drones buzzing airports and bases." About as close to an official attribution as you're going to get. gov.uk/government/spe…Image
Read 6 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Dec 5, 2025
Trump's national security strategy is out and some of the Europe sections are shocking. "...the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed
gives cause for great optimism." whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…Image
Trump national security strategy: Make Europe White Again.

"Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades ...certain NATO members will become majority non-European"

"the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure"

whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…Image
As far as I can see, this nat sec strategy is far harsher on Europe than on Russia. There is no mention of a threat from Russia or of deterrence, only that "re-establishing strategic stability" is a priority. Europe is cast as a major threat to freedom.
Read 8 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Nov 21, 2025
The proposal is nothing short of a very bad joke. I mean, read this:

"$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine;
-- The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture."
There is a lot in the proposal that US & Ukr could agree without Europe. That is not true of this clause, which will never be agreed—like, ever.

"NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future."

google.com/amp/s/abcnews.…
The fact that this absurd and unworkable clause is in there is itself a suggestion that the proposal is the basis for further negotiation and not a "take it or leave it"
Read 6 tweets

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