What's going on with Binance?

Here's what I know 🧵
Remember when Binance released proof of reserves to calm the market?

Well, the accounting firm that helped with that, Mazars Group, deleted the proof of reserves from its website.

And Mazars Group is pausing all work with Binance and its other crypto clients.
Last year, Sam Bankman-Fried bought out CZ's stake in FTX.

It was a $2.1 billion transaction, but CZ says they only have about $500 million of that left since it was in FTT.

Also, CZ says they "actually forgot" about that $500 million for a while.

Is forgetting about half a billion dollars supposed to make me feel more confident in their ability to properly run an exchange?
But people are asking the question: could Binance be on the hook to pay that $2.1 billion back to FTX victims?

It could be viewed as a Fraudulent Conveyance, and bankruptcy courts can often claw back transactions years after the fact.
Binance CEO CZ appeared on CNBC yesterday.

It didn't go great.

The CNBC anchor asks why Binance doesn't get an audit from a Big 4 accounting firm.

CZ responds by saying that those firms don't actually know how to audit crypto exchanges.
In the same interview, CZ insists that audited financials are coming.

But just a few hours later, we hear that accounting firm Mazars Group is cutting ties with Binance.

We've also learned that Binance has seen billions in net withdrawals this week.

However, they haven't paused withdrawals or appeared to have had problems processing withdrawal requests.
So what's going on here?

There are definitely some red flags:

👉 Evasive answers from CZ.

👉 The promise of a full audit sometime in the future.

👉 Assurances that Binance is financially strong without any specific evidence.
One of the big concerns is that even if Binance is correctly collateralized, that could change quickly if there's a run on the bank or if one of Binance's largest reserve holdings has issues.

This is a classic scenario for crypto exchanges: Everything is fine until it's not.

If Binance has the confidence of the market, then everything will be fine.

If the stablecoins in Binance's reserves hold their peg, everything will be fine.
But look, Jim Cramer is bearish on Binance, so maybe everything will be just fine 🤷‍♀️

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More from @GRDecter

Dec 13
How long could Sam Bankman-Fried go to prison for?

I looked at a few cases with similar charges.

Here’s what I found out 🧵
At the maximum, Sam Bankman-Fried could spend the rest of his life in jail.

Many of his charges have harsh sentencing guidelines.

For example, wire fraud carries a maximum sentence of 20 years.

And that’s just one of his 8 charges.
So his sentence could potentially be 100 years or longer if he is convicted on all 8 counts.

But what’s the most likely scenario?

I looked at a few cases with similar charges.
Read 14 tweets
Dec 13
I just read the criminal indictment of Sam Bankman-Fried.

Here's what it said 🧵
Sam is facing 8 charges, which can be broken into 4 areas:

Wire fraud, securities fraud, money laundering, and campaign finance violations
The first charge is conspiracy to commit wire fraud on customers.

The indictment says that SBF and others took in FTX deposits knowing that they'd use them to pay Alameda expenses and debts
Read 14 tweets
Dec 12
The Fed meets this week.

Emotions are high and investors are on the edge of their seats.

Here is what you need to know 🧵
The most pressing questions that everyone wants to know are:

1. Will rates exceed 5% in 2023?

2. Where will inflation trend?

3. How long will rates stay elevated?

Let’s dive in!
1) Will rates exceed 5% in 2023?

This is a large mental number for investors.

Today, the Feds Fund Target Rate is 4%. It was just 0.25% a year ago.

We know that the Fed will keep hiking, the only question is by how much?
Read 13 tweets
Dec 12
Last week, FINRA halted trading in a stock just before a spin-off.

#FINRAfraud started trending and short sellers were saved from billions in losses.

Here’s what happened 🧵
On Friday, FINRA halted trading in $MMTLP, which are the preferred shares of Meta Materials, $MMAT

Why did FINRA halt trading?

Here’s what their statement said:
“FINRA has determined that an extraordinary event has occurred or is ongoing that has caused or has the potential to cause significant uncertainty in the settlement and clearance process for shares in MMTLP”
Read 16 tweets
Dec 12
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’re aware that everyone is freaking out over ChatGPT.

Technological changes are rapidly accelerated when a “killer app” comes forward and increases mass adoption.

When it comes to AI, make no mistake, this is one of those moments.

🧵
2/
By producing incredibly clear prompts after the user inputs a query, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) engine is spitting out everything from workout plans, discounted cash flow models, software product roadmaps, copywriting, and global domination plans.
3/
Much has been said and spent around the advancement of AI.

Data scientists have continued to work on neural networks, but largely missed the mark on practical use cases.

Let’s look briefly at the history of AI and where we are today. Image
Read 23 tweets
Dec 10
In just 30 days, 3 prominent crypto people died mysteriously.

- 30-year-old crypto billionaire (died in his sleep)

- 29-year-old well-known developer (drowned in Puerto Rico)

- 53-year-old entrepreneur (helicopter crash)

What’s going on here? Let’s take a look 🧵
Tiantian Kullander, the billionaire behind the Amber Group, died on November 23rd at the age of 30.

He apparently passed away in his sleep, with no other information given.

His Hong Kong-based crypto firm was valued at $3 billion earlier this year but has struggled lately.
Amber Group was hit hard in the FTX fallout and has laid off 40% of its staff.

Earlier Friday, the company denied allegations that it was insolvent.

Read 8 tweets

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