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Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA Profile picture
Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA
Former $100MM+ Money Manager • Seen on Bloomberg, FOX & VICE • CEO @grit_capital • Write #1 Finance newsletter on Substack
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Jan 27 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Is Pfizer working on “mutating” new viruses so it can create new vaccines?

This video from Project Veritas suggests so.

Let’s take a look 🧵

First off, let me just say that if Pfizer had an evil plan to massively profit off the Pandemic, they’re not very good at it.

Pfizer stock is up just 60% from the Covid crash lows. Compare that to +482% for Tesla or +345% for Bitcoin. Image
Jan 26 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A journalist asked ChatGPT to make a market-beating ETF.

Here's what happened 👇 ChatGPT said the unpredictability of the stock market makes it impossible to reliably beat the index.

So it didn't even attempt to put together a list of holdings that might beat the market.
Jan 25 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Tesla $TSLA reports earnings right after the bell

Are you as ready as Elon’s bodyguards are?

Here’s what you should know 🧵 Tesla stock has been crushing it so far this year.

It’s up about 33% in just a few weeks after a disastrous end to 2022. Image
Jan 24 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Microsoft laid off 10,000 workers while investing $10 billion into OpenAI.

Is AI going to replace tech workers?

Let’s take a look 🧵 Most big tech companies have laid off thousands of workers in the last few weeks.

Notable layoffs over the last 3 months:

Amazon - 18,000
Google - 12,000
Meta - 11,000
Microsoft - 10,000
Salesforce - 8,000
Jan 20 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Back in November, a few days after FTX collapsed, I predicted the next domino to fall in crypto would be Genesis.

Last night, Genesis Trading filed for bankruptcy. Here’s what happened 🧵 Genesis was in trouble immediately after FTX collapsed.

They had $175 million stuck on FTX and sought an emergency $1 billion loan to shore up liquidity.

Here’s what we knew in November:

Jan 18 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
7 of the strongest signs I’ve seen that inflation has peaked and we are headed for disinflation 🧵 1. The 10-year yield has dropped like a rock this year. The market is expecting rates to come down.
Jan 17 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Don’t look now, but $ARKK is up 15% YTD.

Sure, it’s still down 77% from ATHs...but it's back, baby!

Or is it…

With inflation inline, growth rallying, and oil having a less-than-stellar start, the market is doing what proves most people wrong.

Let's recap the week 🧵 2/
 Often in market corrections, we have what is called a “bear market rally” or a “dead cat bounce.”

We’re going to pick the more morose saying with a feline four-legged creature involved for google to define:
Jan 17 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
China just recorded its first population decline in 60 years

Here’s what this means for investors 🧵 The Chinese government reported that 9.56 million people were born in China last year, and 10.41 million people died.

That marks the country’s first population decline since the 1960s.

And experts say the decline in the birthrate is “irreversible”.
Jan 13 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Bank of America just posted a $1.1 billion provision for credit losses

JP Morgan’s was $2.3 billion

This is a very bad sign for the economy in 2023.

Let’s dive in 🧵 Banks reported good earnings results this morning

JP Morgan blew out EPS expectations with $3.57 earnings vs. $3.07 expected per share

Bank of America posted great revenue numbers thanks to higher interest rates
Jan 12 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
This video isn’t actually Tom Cruise.

It’s a deep fake made with AI.

Let’s take a look at the world of AI and what it means for investors: You’ve probably seen ChatGPT.

It’s an AI chatbot created by a company called OpenAI, which Microsoft is about to invest $10 billion into.
Jan 11 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Crypto bank Silvergate is facing a bank run after working closely with FTX

But US taxpayers just footed the bill for a $4.3 billion loan to help the bank stay afloat

Is this really something the government should be doing? 🧵 Silvergate is facing a crisis.

Deposits fell from $11.9 billion to a low of $3.5 billion last quarter.

The company’s stock is down more than 90% in the last year.
Jan 9 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Ken Griffin and Citadel PRINTED money last year

$28 billion in revenue and their flagship fund returned 38.1% in a year where most investors struggled.

How did they do it?

Let’s dig into their secrets 🧵 Citadel manages about $54 billion in assets

Its flagship fund, Wellington, returned 38.1% in 2022, better than just about any hedge fund.

In contrast, the S&P 500 lost about 19% during the same time.
Jan 9 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
Could this be the year?

That FINALLY, renewable energy has its day in the…sun?

With private and public capital flowing to the asset class and attractive unit economics things are looking brighter.

🧵👇 2/
 Let's take a look at the business cases instead of this old man yelling at clouds:

Jan 6 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The FED is NOT going to stop raising rates.

Here's why: The labor market is still growing.

The rate of growth may be slowing, but jobs and wages are still increasing.

Jan 5 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
In November, I warned that the "Bank of Bitcoin" was in trouble.

Since then, the stock is down 53%.

Here are the latest developments 🧵 If you missed my original thread from November, you can check that out below.

I outlined several warning signs that Silvergate was headed into a tailspin:

Jan 3 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
340,000 Gemini Earn customers are missing over $900 million.

Cameron Winklevoss of Gemini called out Barry Silbert for not returning the funds.

Here’s what we know 🧵 Yesterday, Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss posted this letter to Barry Silbert

Gemini’s Earn program is powered by Genesis, a division of Barry Silbert’s Digital Currency Group (DCG)

Jan 3 • 24 tweets • 6 min read
Good riddance.

2022 was a year to forget for investors.

The 60/40 portfolio had its worst year SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION.

Time to move on.

But before we turn the page, it’s important to see how we got here.

🧵👇 2/
 The One Big Thing 👉 CPI was the MVP of 2022

As a result of backstopping the pandemic, we had unprecedented creation of money supply in 2020.

At the time - this seemed to have been the appropriate action to avoid utter calamity.

Until it wasn’t.
Dec 30, 2022 • 15 tweets • 7 min read
I looked through the 2023 macro outlooks from the largest financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and BlackRock.

(Links to all reports at the end)

Here’s what they’re expecting next year: Goldman Sachs expects low global growth of 1.8% in 2023, thanks to the negative catalysts of a “bumpy reopening in China” and a recession in Europe.

Banks consistently lowered their growth forecasts throughout the year, but Goldman’s is now higher than the consensus.
Dec 30, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Yesterday, Barron's reported that Elon Musk got a margin call.

After being corrected, they quietly changed the headline to: I'll admit, I fell for it.

But if we can't trust big names in the financial news media, why do they even have a platform?

Here's what they got wrong:
Dec 30, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Here are the craziest things that happened in the financial markets in 2022 🧵 A woman named Heather Morgan who raps under the name “Razzlekhan” was arrested, along with her husband, for allegedly laundering $4.5 BILLION in stolen crypto.

Here’s one of her raps:

Dec 21, 2022 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
What's the latest with Binance?

Here are the new developments since the liquidity crunch last week 🧵 Reuters reported that Binance's finances are "hidden from public view", as the company doesn't disclose revenue, profit, or cash reserves.