LAST WEEK JEROME POWELL SAID DOWNSIDE RISK TO EMPLOYMENT ARE “REAL NOW”

WITH THE U.S IN A RECESSION ACCORDING TO SAHM RULE...

TIME FOR A 🧵 1/UNEMPLOYMENT RISING:

Up 4 straight months, now at 3-year high of 4.3%

I've been investing in the stock market for 18 years.

Here are 10 things I do when there's a correction and I feel like dumping my entire portfolio...

Time for a 🧵 1. Drink a Cherry Coke and ask myself WWWBD: What Would Warren Buffett Do?

📈EVERY Major "2024 Outlook" from the World's Top Banks, Asset Managers, Private Equity & Consulting Firms

Credit and thank you to Anthony Cheung for posting on Linkedin.

Let's dive in!

BANKS (US):

J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan Private Bank

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs Asset Management

Morgan Stanley

Bank of America

Bank of America Private Bank

Citi

Wells Fargo

BNY Mellon

State Street

Lazard

T. Rowe Price.

TD Securities

Charles Schwab

RBC Capital Markets shorturl.at/eltPT
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t.ly/2bF1E
t.ly/BCLLT
t.ly/p47tE
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rb.gy/nnjx81
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rb.gy/0guz6u ASSET MANAGERS:

BlackRock

Amundi

M&G plc

Man Group

Wellington Management

Invesco US

Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM)

Schroders

Deutsche Bank (Wealth)

Allianz

AXA IM

PIMCO

Capital Group

Julius Baer (secular outlook)

Pictet

Vanguard

Fidelity

Cambridge Associates lnkd.in/eSxDA_bR
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Buffett, Ackman, Dalio, Cohen, Griffin...

BULL or BEAR?

What are the world’s wealthiest investors doing with their money right now?

Let's find out👇 1. Ray Dalio: MILD BEAR.

“I don’t want to own debt, you know, bonds and those kinds of things…Temporarily right now, cash I think is good.”

“We’ve been spending money like drunken sailors”

JPMorgan CEO at Barclay's conference in NYC.

5 things you need to know 👇 1. Quantitative Tightening is Coming.

"I just think people make a mistake to look at real-time numbers and not look at the future. And the future has quantitative tightening,"

The Fed just raised rates by 0.25% - again

That’s the 11th rate increase in less than 2 years

Here’s what you should know 👇 The Federal Open Market Committee made a move that was expected by financial markets:

They raised the funds rate by a quarter percentage point.

This stock market has been incredibly resilient

The S&P has gained 14.7% this year despite a bleak outlook at the start of the year

But now, we’ve rounded a corner and things are looking up

Here’s what you should know 🧵 The labor market is HOT

The new jobs number came in way above expectations today, despite the Fed’s best efforts to dampen job growth for the last year

https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1676935546407378945?s=20

The Fed just decided to FINALLY pause rate hikes

This was a real ‘fork in the road’ moment

Here are the potential consequences of this huge decision 🧵 The Fed FINALLY paused rate hikes after 10 consecutive increases in the Fed Funds rate

https://twitter.com/Grit_Capital/status/1669042924074434560?s=20

Honored to be ranked #2 Personal Finance & Investing account on Twitter

@elonmusk Twitter is fast becoming THE best place for real-time investing information.

The amount of engagement and deep insights is insane.

And it's only going to get better 🚀

The Fed hiked rates aggressively to stop inflation.

What was the main cause of inflation? Jerome Powell said it was wage inflation & a hot labor market.

Well, the government just admitted their numbers were wrong

“Oops”

🧵 The US Department of Labor just released a report that shows hourly compensation actually DECREASED by 0.7% in Q4 of last year

Previously, they reported that the increase was 4.9%

They revised the numbers 5 months later

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase, just said that commercial real estate losses may take a few banks down

Here’s what you should know about the next banking crisis: Regional banks have another huge problem besides bank runs:

Commercial real estate loans.

Over $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate loans will come due over the next 2.5 years

https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1655935790818664452?s=20

This guy turned a dream into $3 million thanks to Dogecoin…

And we helped make a movie about it!

@elonmusk will you be joining us at the world premiere June 10th in NYC?

I have a ticket for you The movie, “THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE”, features Glauber "Pro" Contessoto, an immigrant working multiple jobs and living in a 220-square-foot apartment, who gambles his life savings on Dogecoin...

Mind Blown 🤯

I'm in the top Twitter female creators worldwide list!

I made it to #86 out of 180 million. Honoured to be ranked on the Top 200 List of Twitter Female Content Creators Worldwide by Favikon 👩

We’re at a tipping point

The US and the members of the G-7 are no longer the dominant economic group

Russia, Brazil, China and others just surpassed the G-7 in total GDP.

Here’s what’s about to change 🧵 There are two dominant economic groups of countries:

The G-7: The United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

Interest in Gold is near all-time highs

The last couple years have created a perfect storm for gold investors 🧵 Interest in gold investing has been surging lately. It seems like everyone wants at least some gold in their portfolio:

https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent/status/1647974832582062081?s=20

First Republic Bank lost $72 billion in deposits last quarter.

The banking crisis isn’t over.

Here’s the latest on the troubled banks 🧵 First Republic Bank stock crashed yesterday after the bank reported horrendous results

Turns out, the crisis isn’t over yet.

First Republic is cutting staff as 40% of the bank’s deposits went out the door within a few weeks.

https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1650596748191039488?s=20

The Masters Tournament starts today

It’s the most prestigious golf tournament in the world, and will generate somewhere in the range of $150 million in revenue in just 4 days

But this Masters is different: Since last year, a trade war has broken out in the golf world 🧵 The Masters is probably the most prestigious sporting event in the world

Watch this and try not to get chills:

https://twitter.com/AmericanHIO/status/1643969378424061952?s=20

Gold is less than 2% away from hitting an all-time high

And central banks are buying up record amounts of gold

Here’s what you should know 🧵 Gold surged past $2,000 an ounce yesterday

And it’s close to matching the all-time high of $2,075

The US dollar is losing its reserve currency status

Here’s what you should know 🧵 The US dollar has been the backbone of the global economy for decades

Several countries even use the US Dollar as an official currency, like El Salvador, Panama, and Ecuador

What happened with Silicon Valley Bank was just a blip compared to the much larger timebomb sitting on bank balance sheets

Here’s the even larger issue investors should worry about 🧵 The banking industry increased its exposure to commercial real estate heading into the pandemic.

The Fed stepped in to stop a bank run.

But did it just restart QE Infinity and set the stage for much larger problems down the road?

Let’s take a look 🧵 Last week, we saw the start of a bank run

Silicon Valley Bank had a huge duration problem:

Their bond portfolio was locked in at low yields, but they needed to sell those bonds at huge losses to meet the $42 billion in withdrawal requests in one day.

https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1633919732741992450?s=20