Putin cancelled his annual press conference for the first time in a decade as well as his address to the Federal Assembly. Although the Constitution mandates communications between the President and the Parliament. Here's a thread on why this is a significant sign 1/11
Putin has nothing to say to ordinary Russians and the Russian elite. He can't possibly avoid talking about the war, its goals, and its course in his statements. He also lacks solid justifications and forecasts in light of the Russian army's failures 2/11
Putin's forces failed to seize Kyiv as well as demoralise Ukrainian soldiers. Ukrainians managed to liberate several captured territories in late summer and early autumn and successfully launched symbolic retaliatory strikes upon Russian territory 3/11
Kherson – the only regional centre taken and even formally absorbed into Russia – was liberated. Ukraine was able to sink The Moskva, Russia's flagship in the Black Sea fleet. Moreover, they caused devastating explosions which demolished the vital Crimean bridge 4/11
Kremlin had to abandon its rhetoric of rescuing Ukrainians from Nazis. Instead, Putin has made it blatantly obvious he is bent on destroying the peaceful civilian infrastructure as a form of warfare against the Ukrainian people and state, and that they are the ultimate goal 5/11
The current situation occurs in the context of the continuing deterioration of living standards and extensive mobilisation taking place in Russia. Meanwhile, the elite and business sector have largely lost foreign assets and access to the benefits of Western civilisation 6/11
Putin is losing this war, as the goals are no longer clear, and both the elite and the population are bearing the costs. He can't explain the purpose of his invasion or when it will come to an end. He's not able to meet public demand so he cancelled all public talks 7/11
The decision to cancel all events is also motivated by fear of potential successful sabotage by Ukrainians as they have demonstrated their ability to attack targets deep within Russian territory 8/11
Russia’s most strategic military airfields, located 650 km from the front line, were destroyed by a drone attack. Besides, Western Siberia has already been affected by several mystery fires at sensitive Russian facilities 9/11
No one can guarantee that Putin won't have to address the media or the parliament while the Kremlin is on fire or a bridge over the Moskva River is in shambles. 10/11
No one can guarantee that Putin won't have to address the media or the parliament while the Kremlin is on fire or a bridge over the Moskva River is in shambles 10/11
To conclude, Russia's domestic politics are now largely shaped by Ukraine's successful military campaign. Putin started the war to address his personal issues and remain in power. However, Ukraine already has power over his domestic agenda 11/11
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