ayden Profile picture
Dec 17 4 tweets 2 min read
During its briefing on yesterday's missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that decoys were used during the strike to deceive Ukrainian air defense. At the same time,
positions were opened and four radar stations of the Ukrainian S-300 air defense systems in the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions were destroyed.
It is interesting that the destruction of four radar stations mentioned by the Russian defense department coincides with the data of the Ukrainian General Staff, which in its report yesterday indicated the use of four Kh-59 and Kh-31P aircraft missiles.
If the situation described by the military of both sides really took place, then we can make the assumption that the beginning of SEAD/DEAD of Ukrainian AD during long-range missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine has started.

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More from @squatsons

Dec 14
The personnel center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced in top secret the number of dead Ukrainian soldiers who were declared missing - 35,382 people. These are military personnel whose bodies were left on the battlefield - they were not taken home and were not buried.
Their families will not receive compensation because they are "missing."

The number from the certificate sent to the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Sergei Shaptala.
Whose official archive was hacked by Russian hackers from the Anarchist Kombatant group. Attached to the letter is a complete list of all the dead but missing servicemen as of November 30, 2022.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 3
I wouldn’t get overly excited about some big Russian offensive from the north or in Kharkov this winter. Instead get ready for a long and slow offensive over the entire front line with 200,000 additional troops spread rather evenly.
The worst mistake the Russians can make, IMPO, is to give the west any reason to escalate in Ukraine. A massive land grab or decapitation of government when the west still has some interest in Ukraine could bring the US back in just as support is beginning fade.
A “slow grind”, as general Surovikin stated in his most recent public statements, is what I think everyone should expect over the following months. The goal should be the complete demoralisation of the AFU and more importantly forcing reality to dawn on its backers.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 1
Some different mappings of the situation around Artemovsk/Bakhmut. The Russia plan seems to be the same as it was around Lisichansk. Take the high ground, cut off supply routes into Bakhmut, suppress Ukrainian positions is surrounding towns.
The recent Russian gains are focused primarily on a section of elevated terrain that provides perfect positions for artillery and spotting over supply routes into Bakhmut and Ukrainian positions in the city. The question is what’s Russias next course of advance?
If Klishchiivka falls to Ru then the settlement of Ivanlvske wold be under complete fire control. The town would probably not be assaulted as their would be threats from Chasiv Yar and Bakhmut but it wouldn’t be needed as Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut would be threatened.
Read 9 tweets
Nov 30
According to Rybar the Ukrainians are transferring their best and most dependable units into Artemovsk/Bakhmut. These units include Foreign mercenaries, Nazi militias, and Ukrainian SOF.
I understand the city is important but have the Ukrainians learned nothing from Mariupol or Severodonetsk? Pushing your best into an area that’s collapsing to plug holes and prevent retreat exposes them to immense casualties. They’re playing into Wagner’s openly stated plan.
In the next weeks expect to see a lot of obituaries for Polish, English, Georgian, and French mercenaries. Also be on the look out for a lot more red and black flags flying over cemeteries.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 27
Ukrainian journalist Victoria Khamaza reported that there is about 500 wounded in the Artemivsk (Bakhmut) area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries over the past two days, and their flow to hospitals located in the city itself does not stop.
If this statement is true it means that Artemovsk/Bakhmut is lining up to be another Mariupol or Severodonetsk for the Ukrainians. Stand and fight orders are so costly and only good for PR.
Let’s make some assumptions

The 500 WIA probably have varying degrees of wounds. Of those 500 I imagine ~200 are irreparable and with a casualty rate of 1/3 WIA there are (very roughly) 150-170 KIA. So in the span of two days 350 men of the AFU have been lost in Artemovsk.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 9
Kherson is a very difficult area without the possibility of a stable regular supply of ammunition and the formation of a strong, reliable rear. In this difficult situation, the general acted wisely and far-sightedly - he evacuated the civilian population and ordered a regrouping
there is no need to talk about the "surrender" of Kherson. "Surrender" together with the fighters. Surovikin protects the soldier and takes a more advantageous strategic position - convenient, safe.
Everyone knew from the very first days of the special operation that Kherson was a difficult combat territory. The soldiers of my units also reported that it was very difficult to fight in this area. Yes, it can be kept,
Read 5 tweets

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