Collapse day #37 🧵

Ugledar has fallen: yet another tragic end to a Ukrainian battle with AFU being encircled and left to die defending the fortress and key to the southern Donetsk front. An all too common story for the AFU but this one seemed rather pointless compared to some of the others. Not a Bakhmut but a sad short Krinky. An additional pocket has formed just east of the previously collapsed Nevelske/Krasnohorivka salient with Hirnky at the center of it. Russian forces have already bypassed most of the pocket and are now only needing to cross 5km of open unfortified fields before supply is cut (yellow/blue). We can expect another massive step back on this front in the coming weeks.

Analysis of the strike that damaged a children’s hospital in Kiev 🧵

Just for clarification on location: A majority of the missiles landed on the Zavod ARTEM plant in Kiev which produces missiles and interceptors. At 8 seconds you will see the camera pan away from the main strikes and show the hospital hit. This map will help.

Debunking the Ukrainian propaganda claim that Russia solely struck a residential civilian building in Dnepropetrovsk🧵 First let’s get an aerial view of what was targeted and the POV of the person who took the picture above.

White: photographers POV

Yellow: damaged residential buildings

Orange: A massive rail station that traffics massive amounts of AFU equipment and manpower.

D+48

(This is almost a weeks worth of updates on this map)

Ukrainian progress around Kleshcheevka has created a difficult situation in the town itself for Ru forces, A withdrawal may occur if counterattacks are unsuccessful. In the Zaporozhye area Ukrainians made decent progress out of Lobkove and expanded their zone of control east of Kamyanske. A Russian counter attack returned some of the most eastward positions.

Another AFU assault around Robitno has again failed to achieve moderate success… https://t.co/8mrNo7IJB3twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Why would the Russian do this?

Prevailing winds: towards Crimea

Radiation coverage: towards Russia

Check sources as well i added them.





google.com/amp/s/news.yah…

Losses from the recent Ukrainian offensive in Zaporozhye, this is a serious loss in armor for absolutely no gain. All of that western trained manpower and material just gone.

All statements coming out of Kiev right now should be completely dismissed. We’re sitting in the middle of a mass I’ve misinformation campaign designed to conceal the date and location of the offensive. If they say they don’t have the equipment they do.

If they say they’re delaying it till summer expect it next week

If they talk about Kherson look to the LPR. If they start accumulating in the north look to the south.

My bet is they try to force Russia into declaring war.

To all the Pro-Russian accounts, please watch and study the cope that the Pro-Ukrainian side is displaying right now and try to prevent yourself from coping/Dooming over every little bit of news. It’s quite embarrassing to watch and it would be sad if the script just flipped. In a month or so the Russians will be in a defensive posture and probably losing some minor territory if the Ukrainians decide to go on the offensive. It’s just the ebb and flow of this conflict. Russias primary interest is reducing an army while the Ukrainians need territory.

Ukrainian probing attack in the Zaporozhye region was agian repulsed with losses. On this occasion 4 M113 APCs and infantry were lost in the probing operation. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

https://twitter.com/gammonbadge/status/1637427955948290049

Some predictions for the next few months of fighting in the Donbass 🧵 Chasov Yar is an obvious place to start as the battle for Artyomovsk begins to winds down just to the east. I see the Russians following their usual MO of surround/cut supply/storm. The high ground to the north and securing a bridgehead over the canal is key to the encirclement.

Video of the Ukrainian army undermining the railway bridge across the Bakhmutka River, leading to the very center of Bakhmut.

48.601111, 38.005833 Here, this confirms my mapping report yesterday that the AFU has left the eastern half of the city.

Prigozhin has just released a statement alleging that Leopard tanks are already in Chasiv Yar. The implications of this action may actually give us some insight into how the Ukrainian command is thinking and how critical the situation appears to be for them. If leopards are in the country for less then a week (publicly) and already being sent to the front, the crews will be inadequately trained (unless mercenaries) and will be rather alone in the field considering the bulk of donated tanks are in transit or have not been sent yet.

1 year later

Russian economy stable after the full force of western sanctions on a “gas station economy”.

China, India, OPEC+, Turkey all closer allies to Russia then before the SMO started.

Russian military has successfully continued to attrit all of NATO through its proxy. Everything is not perfect and smooth but it was supposed to go so much worse for Russia and it’s really not. No one planned for this to go a full 12 months but the US is now in a much worse position then it was in February, while Russia took a 2.1% GDP hit (less then Covid).

Machine translation

Evgeny Prigozhin statement

“Today at 6 am, they announced that the shipment of ammunition is starting. Most likely, the train started moving. So far, on paper, but, as we were told, the main papers have already been signed. I would like to thank all those who helped us make this happen. You saved hundreds, maybe thousands of lives of guys who are defending their homeland, gave them the opportunity to live on. Their mothers and their children will not receive coffins with their bodies.

Putin is speaking, speech thread 🧵 Ok this sounds like negotiating is over.
Usual talking point so far from Putin but is harsher then normal.

Guys, here me out These vibes

Wagner has reportedly made a breakthrough between Yahidne and Berkhivka. Expecting Dubovo Vasylivka and Berkhivka to be announced soon, the high ground to the north has already been captured by Wagner. Elevation difference and rough frontline around Berkhivka. Russians are sitting 300ft above the northern flank of Bakhmut.

Strike thread 🧵

More missile launches from the Black Sea recorded

08:48 Just waiting for hits, rockets all over Ukraine. Currently 4 over the lvov region.

The recent successes of Russian forces along most of the frontline could be telling. We’re not seeing any serious counter offensives to these gains and it leads me to believe that that 1 of 3 things could be happening.

(Recent progress around Ugledar) Situation one: The Ukrainians don’t have the resources to prevent these advances and are scrambling all over the place trying to stabilize.

I see this as the least likely option.

Small prediction:

I believe that we will see an increase in the speed of the Russian push out of Soledar. We are coming up on the one week mark on the majority capture of the city and mines (excluding #7 which fell later). The main contributing factor to this predicted increase is due to the fact that the# Russians now have hardened storage and HQ position in these salt mines. The fear of HIMARS strikes on leadership is no longer an issue and equipment/ammunition will be safe underground.

Did they just trot out the only victim of nuclear weapons for this statement? The US is actually evil.

Oh did I mention the US dropped the nukes on Japan? Just in case you didn’t know.

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1614236729006821376

Medvedev on TG:

Biden and Kishida said that any possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia in Ukraine would be an act of hostility against all of humanity that cannot be justified.