Thread by @JBelcourt73

Tomorrow is Putin's visit to Belarus. Speculation is that Putin wants Lukashenko to turn over the reins and fold Belarus into Russia proper and thereby give Putin control of the Belarussian Army to aid in a planned spring offensive. So far Luka has rather adroitly avoided ealier

attempts to write himself off the center stage, can he do it this time? What changes if he can't? Russia is already using Belarus to train troops, launch missiles and of course the failed drive on Kyiv was staged from there. Additionally, the Belarussian Army has been giving

Russia its stocks of artillery ammo and reserve tanks (and presumably other AFV's). I'm not at all convinced that the Belarussian's would fight even if Luka joined the war or Belarus ceased to exists as an "independent" state. Those troops watched the Russian Army come fleeing

back from the failed invasion of Northern Ukraine and they saw the hospitals swamped with dead and dying Russians. They are not stupid mobiks from Siberia with no access to good information. They saw the carnage firsthand and many can listen to Western Media sources. Its also

highly likely that they know how Russia treats colonial troops from the Eastern part of Russia and the poor dammed souls conscripted from the occupied areas of Ukraine. Its a one-way ride and what equipment they have now is all they get. Everything else has been stripped out and

sent to arm Russians. There won't be any air support, artillery will be starved of ammunition and when a Russian makes them a 200 the families will get a big fat Russian 0. Yet for all this Putin seems to think bullet magnets will win him the war. It sure seems to be the dominant

use of troops in Bakhmut. So 2-300K Russian troops plus an equal number of Belarussian troops can't be ignored. This is why General Zaluzhnyi is holding back new units he has been building for months. He has to use what is up now to hold the line and conduct his winter

counter offensive and make sure that his defenses in the North can both meet the expected attack and defeat it, but have enough left to go over to the offensive. aimed at ending the war. Russia probably can swing a spring offensive logistically, but that is it. The cookie jar

will be bare. Russian production of modern arms would not be able to keep up in peace time let alone with the added frictions of missing workers and sanctions. The west on the other hand faces no obstacle to production but will. The Russian trolls calling for peace or ending aid

to Ukraine are trying to hamstring Ukraine before Russia runs out of everything. Our politicians must stay strong. @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, and @RepFrenchHill know I expect them to vote to send more, send better and send now. They know and I know you do to that I will do my

part to fill in the gaps. From bonking the Russian narratives to donating to worthwhile causes like the war fighters of the 92nd Brigade: @LibertyUkraineF, @georgian_legion and @belwarriors to organizations that support other war fighters and civilians like @MriyaAid, @U24_gov_ua

@UkraineAidOps and @3xR_team. You have to do your part too. Join #NAFO become a #FELLA and bonk away and donate what you can. We must stay the course for Ukraine. The thaws will start in about two months time and Europe will be out of the worst of it. Spring blooms will herald

Russian defeat. Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukraini! @mfa_russia <--- still losing: generations, credibility, relevance....